handicapping 101 big days..on track
 

here is a lesson on how not to get your ass handed to you on big stakes days.. on track..

rule 1. dont think the horses your betting are any more reliable than normal..

rule 2. dont drink too much and fire like your bill gates..your not and a bad AND impaired opinion is worse than a regular bad OPINION

rule 3. take it easy..enjoy the track soak it.. in so you miss a race ..you would have lost..knocking 3 kids out of the way to make the opener at gs is just in bad taste..

rule 4. LISTEN TO NOONE!! BET WHO YOU LIKE..YOU WILL FEEL BETTER!!

some idiot making a case for a horse that has no shot is danger.. stay away from these people..they will mess with your head and they will lose and you will too..

rule 5. if your gonna drink .. bet early ..make your plays and let them ride


rule 6 group capping

it does not work unless you are with a bunch of people who win .alot..

good luck hooves :cool:

Great advice. Every year when I go to Derby Day, the same guy with me gets ahead on a horse he has picked out from his studying the night before. Then he decides to bet a ton on a wayyyyyy overbet favorite to make some easy money. The horse runs up the track. He gets pissed and starts firing bigger shots chasing the money he already had in his pocket. Always ends up the same sad way. For some reason he thinks a 3-5 shot on Derby Day is more reliable than a 3-5 shot on any other day.

that guy will allways lose...

Always bet the seben.

Oops.

Rule ?

think long think wrong

I find the best horse then try and beat him

You know who is going to win the race you just have to listen to yourself

bet a lot on your winners and a little on your losers
:o

The problem i have on days like KD is that once i get that awful 1st mint juliup down the 2nd,3rd,4th...........14th go down so smooth and it helps put me in a festive mood. i cap pretty hard the night before so i already have a pretty good idea who im betting on but still pay attention enough to see the odds and if somthing jumps out at me i'll play it. Worked with Giacomo, Bluegrass cat and hard spun horses whose odds just didn't seem right with what i thought i knew. Or hell, maybe i was just hammered and got lucky. I know i did with Giacomo but the other 2s odds just didnt seem right at post time too me. Dammit it wouldn't be KD if i didn't get smashed on those awful friggin mint juilups. That new drink they have had the past couple of year think its called a lilly with cranberry, vodka some 7up and some blueberries in it is pretty damn tasty as well. Man i can't wait!!!!

Is that why you were feeding me jack and cokes at 10AM at the BC?

Drinking seems to be a downfall to many....

from hooves bill gates "impared" bad opinion

cajun's ooooops

wac's mint julep party....

wac.... I think it was George Burns who said " It only takes one drink to get me drunk.... but I can't remember if it's the 13th or the 14th..."

I agree with rule 5.... bet early.... enjoy the libations late...

and notice the new "signature"... rather appropriate...

good luck this weekend folks....

that was rule 3..

You forgot the most important rule.

DON'T PLAY THE PICK SIX THE DAY BEFORE.

I work very well on three bourbons..it's just getting there and the small amount of time before the fourth.

Spyder

no doubt joe...

I take Thursday off of work every year before the Derby trip to spend all day capping Friday and Saturday. As the week goes by, I check the charts to see how the track is playing so I take a measure against a developing bias. I typically start Saturday off playing the first two or three races , then bet the entire card by the 4th so I can avoid the lines and not let any bad beat change my play.

Thank you for this awesome post. It is "real life", refreshing and right to the point. Some of the best advice out there. Derby Day hits you like getting off the plane in Las Vegas looking to make your first slot hit.:D

thought id bump this ...its allmost time............

those are great rules, although i've broken almost all of them

here's the line... I only had two... the first and the last.

I'm not even 'capping the Derby and Oaks cards if I am not going to be able to bet them online. Some of us can't run to the OTB parlor whenever we want. Any news on the negotiation front?

Your handicapping comes the day after the races are run anyways.

If they open an OTB for those bets you'll be in business.