Inner Track Bias

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by NoLuvForPletch

Andy said the same thing, but outside of the 1st race on Saturday you had to be on or near the lead to win...and yesterday, especially as the day wore on, it seemed impossible for horses to pass in the stretch...

i can live with the 7th race because dominguez moronically made 2 moves with his horse and the winner was just cruising, but for Wishing Wishes not to be able to pass the winner in her race, for the entire length of the stretch, after being pressured through the opening quarter plus in 22 and change, put me over the top...

Can't blame NYRA for what's going on up there: they're giving the people what they're accustomed to/want. American horseplayers are SPEED biased; makes sense, then, that tracks would do all they can to favor speed.

I mean, look at all the complaining that goes on when horses consistently come off the pace, as they did at KEE last meet. There's MUCHO confusion. That can happen when your intuitions are about numbers rather than races.

It's a stacked game. And, counterintuitive, as ONLY in dirt horse racing does the LEADER hold such an advantage over the field. Doesn't happen in auto racing; doesn't happen in cycling. Makes sense it wouldn't, as it's contrary to physics.

That's one of the reasons I started playing turf almost exclusively last summer. While different turf courses have their 'nuances' and it takes a while to get the hang of all them at the different tracks, when push comes to shove, you know you can get a FAIR RACE on the turf at BEL. There's one track, at least, where the best horse has the best chance of winning.

In the meantime, I torture myself by continuing to bet CLOSERS at FG, SA, TAM, and GP.

Just so much of watching gutless horses win races they'd otherwise be buried in that one could take.