Inner Track Bias
 

When do they go back to the main at Aqueduct?

First watching Channing Hill run away from the 4/5 favorite in the 7th after carving out the fractions, then watching Wishing Wishes not able to get by the Karakorum horse after that one dueled for a half mile, makes me want to stick a fork in my eye...

It is just incredible that race after race, day after day, year after year the track has played this way and there is nothing they can or want to do about it.

Actually it has been even for a little while until today.

And you're complaining about a 5:2 shot???? One who a couple of months ago was running in a $14K claimer? I bet Scatkey hard at 15:1.

The jocks let Tergesty set his own pace, he was never pressured until midway on the turn. Even though Tergesti is a once in a blue moon winner the most important thing was they let him set a slow pace.

In the Broadway, Karakorum Starlet outclassed this field. It helped that Tamberino is a 4 furlong sprint and quit horse.

While the track might be favoring speed I would not draw conclusions based on Tergesti and Karakorum Starlet wiring those fields.

I don't disagree with that ( though I don't know what " outclassed " means ) but the entire card has been run in a very inside flow manner that has hindered outside movers much more than recent days.

Why bet Aqueduct when Tampa is open? Yesterday Tampa had 2 20 plus dollar horses that would have paid 8 to 12 bucks in NY. Betting Aqueduct is worse then playing Freehold unless your Andy.

I just had Remorse and Vikrant in late doubles and was caught by Statesman for the win.

That's a crusher, not only for you but the pick-6ers more so.

2 day carry going into Wednesday.

The biggest problem when the track goes this way is you start eliminating horses because of the bias, not that I would've come up with Statesman, but it really makes handicapping a card impossible.

I agree. It makes it very hard to play....and win.

These were cheap horses and I'll just chalk it up "that's horse racing". If I needed those two for a pick 6 or a pick 4 I probably would have had a different outlook.

Let me try this one:

because

the quality of horse and jock down there is SO POOR

that it's worse than trying to account for a bias.

Don't get me wrong, I play TAM more than AQU but I'm very selective.

All those middle moves are beyond ridiculous.

The bettors are clueless make horrible favorites that even a bird brain capper like me know ridiculous to bet.

I really don't look to much at jockeys if Ramon D is top notch then they all sux the same.

The 1st part is definitely true.

I actually prefer FG to TAM these days. The horses seem to run a bit more evenly/predictably in the stretch -- on the dirt.

As for turf, outside of the sprints, both are ridiculously difficult (FG because of the poor quality of the turf and TAM because of the poor rides and the IDIOTIC OUTWARD cut of the grass just before they hit the wire) .

I thought the part about me "sticking a fork in my eye" would definitely give it a negative slant...

Statesman is the best bottom level claimer this year.

Mr Pants...how you came up with this horse, on this track, on this day, is an amazing feat in itself...hopefully you were rewarded handsomely along with your pick 4 ticket, as the 3 he beat home were the only playable horses (besides the speedy statesman of course) in the race...good job

Well it was a horrendous race to begin with and I just couldn't take what I knew would be short prices on Maragh and Cedeno's horses. I've ripped up too many tickets due to their mediocrity. So I started looking at Statesman and noticed his beyer first off the long layoff was real competitive with the rest of the field. I drew a line through his last effort.

I was guessing that the race would have plenty of speed and he was the most likely out of the bunch to close.

Basically I was really lucky.

Side note...

The track was playing kinda fair all weekend.

Andy said the same thing, but outside of the 1st race on Saturday you had to be on or near the lead to win...and yesterday, especially as the day wore on, it seemed impossible for horses to pass in the stretch...

i can live with the 7th race because dominguez moronically made 2 moves with his horse and the winner was just cruising, but for Wishing Wishes not to be able to pass the winner in her race, for the entire length of the stretch, after being pressured through the opening quarter plus in 22 and change, put me over the top...

Can't blame NYRA for what's going on up there: they're giving the people what they're accustomed to/want. American horseplayers are SPEED biased; makes sense, then, that tracks would do all they can to favor speed.

I mean, look at all the complaining that goes on when horses consistently come off the pace, as they did at KEE last meet. There's MUCHO confusion. That can happen when your intuitions are about numbers rather than races.

It's a stacked game. And, counterintuitive, as ONLY in dirt horse racing does the LEADER hold such an advantage over the field. Doesn't happen in auto racing; doesn't happen in cycling. Makes sense it wouldn't, as it's contrary to physics.

That's one of the reasons I started playing turf almost exclusively last summer. While different turf courses have their 'nuances' and it takes a while to get the hang of all them at the different tracks, when push comes to shove, you know you can get a FAIR RACE on the turf at BEL. There's one track, at least, where the best horse has the best chance of winning.

In the meantime, I torture myself by continuing to bet CLOSERS at FG, SA, TAM, and GP.

Just so much of watching gutless horses win races they'd otherwise be buried in that one could take.