Grade 1, $750,000 Whitney Handicap 8-5-6

[Pointg5]

Originally Posted by Bold Brooklynite

One point, please:

There's absolutely no correlation between the way a horse works out ... and the way he performs in a race.

None ... zero.

A horse who works fast is just as likely to lose as he is to win ... and a horse who works slow is just as likely to win as he is to lose.

Actual past performances aren't perfect either ... but they're a much better guide than workouts.

I wouldn't say ZERO correlation, it's not perfect, and there are horses that are "morning glories", but they do give an indication of how a horse is doing. Some stated that Barbaro had one of the best pre-Derby workouts they had ever seen, suggesting he was ready to go. Oracle knows a clocker and he has given out some good info about how a horse has worked and that has translated into on track performance...

Originally Posted by Pointg5

I wouldn't say ZERO correlation, it's not perfect, and there are horses that are "morning glories", but they do give an indication of how a horse is doing. Some stated that Barbaro had one of the best pre-Derby workouts they had ever seen, suggesting he was ready to go. Oracle knows a clocker and he has given out some good info about how a horse has worked and that has translated into on track performance...

All true ...

... but how many times have we seen horses come into a race off four straight bullet works ... then do absolutely nothing.

And what about trainers like McGaughey and Zito ... who always give their horses slow works? They usually win a few races off those works.

My point is not to get too excited by workouts ... sometimes they mean something ... and sometimes they don't. Someone like Oracle ... who's wired straight in ... can get much better info than the rest of us ... who only see numbers on a page.

[Pointg5]

Originally Posted by Bold Brooklynite

All true ...

... but how many times have we seen horses come into a race off four straight bullet works ... then do absolutely nothing.

And what about trainers like McGaughey and Zito ... who always give their horses slow works? They usually win a few races off those works.

My point is not to get too excited by workouts ... sometimes they mean something ... and sometimes they don't. Someone like Oracle ... who's wired straight in ... can get much better info than the rest of us ... who only see numbers on a page.

I do not disagree with any of that...

I am not really concerned about the time of a workout, I mostly look at how it compares to others at the distance that morning. Also, you have to take into account the trainer and their style...I think you could put Pletcher and Dutrow in that group, maybe not as slow, but you do not see bullet after bullet in the work patterns and they seem to win a few races...

It would be nice to be wired in about how the actual work was executed, but that's what is great about the weeks leading up to the KY Derby, the average person will never have that much information about the condition of a horse...

[slotdirt]

As an example, if we were to be concerned about workouts, I'm pretty certain nobody would be Oh So Awesome just about ever. I've never seen him be anything BUT the last of however many horses work at his particular distance. No Joke.

Speaking of Oh So Awesome...when will we see him again?

[jpops757]

early in the year I proclaimed FA pletchers 3rd string.He has passed his stablemates in my opinion. FA never impresses he just stalks the pace and then takes over. After his races and you look back, thats what should impress you. Invasor has looked very good but FA and LM are the targets. Classier horses arent there maybe a more fit horse but classier I doubt it. Evwn when he was getting beaten early last year he was still a classie animal.Pletcher has nothing but classy horses, Some dont perform that way butn they all have the "CLASS".

sigh....

long sigh........


25 posts later.....

and still all i know is that flower alley is pointed here.



this is the whitney thread,

or it tried to be anyway.

[Pointg5]

sigh...

longer sigh....

There's good conversation going on here, if you do not like it, do your own search about who's going in the Whitney, you are very good at copying and pasting articles, so this should not be a problem for you...We are not responsible for helping you find out who is running in a race almost 2 weeks away....

longest sigh of all....

[my miss storm cat]

Originally Posted by Secretariat

sigh....

long sigh........


25 posts later.....

and still all i know is that flower alley is pointed here.



this is the whitney thread,

or it tried to be anyway.

Here.....
http://www.nyra.com/snpp/THE%20WHITNEY.pdf

It belongs to Invasor, but i hope We Can Seek runs anyway.