Corinthian or Bernardini

[Pointg5]

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing

With all do respect, I probably forgot more about pedigrees than you'll ever know....this is a field that I study with high frequency....there are NO certains when it comes to pedigrees and it is hard for me to even put into words anything for certain, so maybe i shouldn't have tried, but I am still confident that trends and patterns of what I have seen work in pedigrees is as good as anybody else's opinions on this subject from what I've heard....

Oh god, Pgardn's smarter than most and I am sure he's alot smarter than you, if he wanted to fill his brain with worthless information and nonsense, he would be more than adequate. It's okay in a maiden race to look and see a sire known for precocious runners or based on the breeding a certain horse may stretch, but it's all a guess until they try it and to represent it otherwise is foolish...

Pedigrees have to be the most overrated facet of the sport. And Joel did you say that even "Lauren Stich" does not know that? As if that column of hers is anything but hysterical reading when you have the blues? She overstates the obvious to the point of absurdity. WIll write a column that basically says a horse by a sprinter shouldnt go long and a horse by a stamina sire should go long. I find it a scream and have a few friends who read her column and howl with laughter, they just can't believe anyone would overstate the obvious. When it comes to science I would make Pgrdn 1-9 against any of the industry blowhards in terms of understanding the way that genetic works.

[Pointg5]

Originally Posted by oracle80

Pedigrees have to be the most overrated facet of the sport. And Joel did you say that even "Lauren Stich" does not know that? As if that column of hers is anything but hysterical reading when you have the blues? She overstates the obvious to the point of absurdity. WIll write a column that basically says a horse by a sprinter shouldnt go long and a horse by a stamina sire should go short. I find it a scream and have a few friends who read her column and howl with laughter, they just can't believe anyone would overstate the obvious. When it comes to science I would make Pgrdn 1-9 against any of the industry blowhards in terms of understanding the way that genetic works.

What I think would be a good idea is to have all of these people that go on and on about pedigrees to make a tape...I have a hard time getting to sleep sometimes and that would be a perfect cure for it, I would be out in about 5 minutes, maybe less...

Originally Posted by Pointg5

What I think would be a good idea is to have all of these people that go on and on about pedigrees to make a tape...I have a hard time getting to sleep sometimes and that would be a perfect cure for it, I would be out in about 5 minutes, maybe less...

Ask Mark Reid about pedigree and see what he says(once they have run as Stud says). Lets see he bought peace Rules(jules, lol), You(You and I),etc.
Then ask Baffert(what does he know, all hes done is win the Derby 3 times, the Preakness 4 times, a Belmont and a Travers) about pedigree. Lets see Silver Charm(anybody else by his sire ever do much?), war Emblem(Hows our emblem working out these days?) Real Quiet(17,500 at auction) etc. Of course after the fact the pedigree guys shout that if you went far enough back in any of these animals that the genes were there. Well no **** Sherlock. If you go far enough back in any pedigree after the fact you can find good genes. Point is once they step on a racetrack and show what they can do the rest of it is all bull****. English Channel cost 50 grand at auction. What the **** happened? Were all the pedigree geniuses asleep at the wheel at that sale or hungover and didn't notice his great bloodlines?
Pedigree is something that you have to look at to give you a general idea of who will like grass first time, mud first time, go short or long first time, etc. But once they have started running what the hell difference does it make? They show you what they are on the racetrack.

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by Pointg5

What I think would be a good idea is to have all of these people that go on and on about pedigrees to make a tape...I have a hard time getting to sleep sometimes and that would be a perfect cure for it, I would be out in about 5 minutes, maybe less...

What in the world do horse analysts do? Really, what iservice do they provide for breeders, owners, trainers, jockeys, bettors?

Pedigree matters for first-time starters and first-time turfers and, distance changes early in a horse's career, but what else can there possibly be to it aside from who breeds to whom?

Who are the top horse analysts? Tomlinson figures look useful as far as how pedigree is somewhat likely to impact surface and distance for lightly -raced or unraced horses. Is there more to it? Much more to it?

My guess is the top paid horse analysts are the Ragozin and Thor-O-graph guys. They're the only ones I've heard of making a good buck for their analysis. But they actually produce a product.

How does a horse analyst get business? I suppose you could walk up to someone and offer to "analyze" their horse. (I'd be pretty good at that, I thnk)

How do horse analysts get paid? Fee-For-Service? Or, some other way?

Is Hank Goldberg a horse analyst?

I think I'd make a damn fine horse analyst.

What do you think?

[Pointg5]

Originally Posted by SentToStud

What in the world do horse analysts do? Really, what iservice do they provide for breeders, owners, trainers, jockeys, bettors?

Pedigree matters for first-time starters and first-time turfers and, distance changes early in a horse's career, but what else can there possibly be to it aside from who breeds to whom?

Who are the top horse analysts? Tomlinson figures look useful as far as how pedigree is somewhat likely to impact surface and distance for lightly -raced or unraced horses. Is there more to it? Much more to it?

My guess is the top paid horse analysts are the Ragozin and Thor-O-graph guys. They're the only ones I've heard of making a good buck for their analysis. But they actually produce a product.

How does a horse analyst get business? I suppose you could walk up to someone and offer to "analyze" their horse. (I'd be pretty good at that, I thnk)

How do horse analysts get paid? Fee-For-Service? Or, some other way?

Is Hank Goldberg a horse analyst?

I think I'd make a damn fine horse analyst.

What do you think?

You would be an outstanding horse analyst...

I listen to a local sports show everyday and they play a race at River Downs for charity, clearly going by names, does that make him analyst?

[Downthestretch55]

Originally Posted by Pointg5

You would be an outstanding horse analyst...

I listen to a local sports show everyday and they play a race at River Downs for charity, clearly going by names, does that make him analyst?

Hank only analyzes that little thing he zips up.
Does anyone ever bet a horse he's picked?

LOL!!

Originally Posted by SentToStud

What in the world do horse analysts do? Really, what iservice do they provide for breeders, owners, trainers, jockeys, bettors?

Pedigree matters for first-time starters and first-time turfers and, distance changes early in a horse's career, but what else can there possibly be to it aside from who breeds to whom?

Who are the top horse analysts? Tomlinson figures look useful as far as how pedigree is somewhat likely to impact surface and distance for lightly -raced or unraced horses. Is there more to it? Much more to it?

My guess is the top paid horse analysts are the Ragozin and Thor-O-graph guys. They're the only ones I've heard of making a good buck for their analysis. But they actually produce a product.

How does a horse analyst get business? I suppose you could walk up to someone and offer to "analyze" their horse. (I'd be pretty good at that, I thnk)

How do horse analysts get paid? Fee-For-Service? Or, some other way?

Is Hank Goldberg a horse analyst?

I think I'd make a damn fine horse analyst.

What do you think?

If pedigree doesn't matter then wqhy doesn';t every breeder just mate their mare with a s hit-box stud like Raffie's Majesty?...Why the hell do all of these dumbass people keep paying $300,000 to breed to A.P. Indy...why?....God, they must all be dumbas ses, right?....Hell, why don't we just start beeding to Quarterhorse stallions if breeding doesn't matter....how about breeding to Mr. Jess Perry?..He'll get you a horse with a lot of hindleg and speed for just $2,500!!!...Come on boys....we all know pedigree is a very important aspect of this game and to think otherwise is just fooling yourselves....Sure, things happen and freaks are born like Xtra Heat every year, but on average, better horses are produced from the better stallions or they wouldn't command the market share and support that they do.....Who wants to pay $300,000 to breed to A.P. Indy?...(Answer The guys who wants to get a monster like Bernardini, thats who....

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing

If pedigree doesn't matter then wqhy doesn';t every breeder just mate their mare with a s hit-box stud like Raffie's Majesty?...Why the hell do all of these dumbass people keep paying $300,000 to breed to A.P. Indy...why?....God, they must all be dumbas ses, right?....Hell, why don't we just start beeding to Quarterhorse stallions if breeding doesn't matter....how about breeding to Mr. Jess Perry?..He'll get you a horse with a lot of hindleg and speed for just $2,500!!!...Come on boys....we all know pedigree is a very important aspect of this game and to think otherwise is just fooling yourselves....Sure, things happen and freaks are born like Xtra Heat every year, but on average, better horses are produced from the better stallions or they wouldn't command the market share and support that they do.....Who wants to pay $300,000 to breed to A.P. Indy?...(Answer The guys who wants to get a monster like Bernardini, thats who....

Well thats one from that crop. How about the other 89 folks who paid the 300 grand? None of em are out yet.

[dr. fager]

apples to oranges?

So if we were talking weather, Cunningham would be a Farmer's Almanac and Pgardn would be a meteoroligist?

Originally Posted by oracle80

Well thats one from that crop. How about the other 89 folks who paid the 300 grand? None of em are out yet.

Not necessarily..some of the fillies are worth close to that as broodmares the day they are born...but, I do understnd your point...this game is a law of numbers game and it is a losing proposistion from day one.....95% of the owners in this game lose their ass everytime they make an iibvestment into this ass-baskwarsd game...its just fact....you have to breed agressive to get good results...sure, you lose more than you win becaues that is how the game is set up...BUT, if you breed your mares to Louis Quatorze every year, the chances are that you will get a s hit-pile horse every year a lot more so than the chances of you getting a Bushfire...

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing

If pedigree doesn't matter then wqhy doesn';t every breeder just mate their mare with a s hit-box stud like Raffie's Majesty?...Why the hell do all of these dumbass people keep paying $300,000 to breed to A.P. Indy...why?....God, they must all be dumbas ses, right?....Hell, why don't we just start beeding to Quarterhorse stallions if breeding doesn't matter....how about breeding to Mr. Jess Perry?..He'll get you a horse with a lot of hindleg and speed for just $2,500!!!...Come on boys....we all know pedigree is a very important aspect of this game and to think otherwise is just fooling yourselves....Sure, things happen and freaks are born like Xtra Heat every year, but on average, better horses are produced from the better stallions or they wouldn't command the market share and support that they do.....Who wants to pay $300,000 to breed to A.P. Indy?...(Answer The guys who wants to get a monster like Bernardini, thats who....

I still don't get it. Well, I do get the part where I, as horse analyst, tell someone that they have a pretty good chance to get a nice foal if they breed to AP Indy. That I get. Seems prety obvious. $300k is a lot of money right? I also get the part about Mr Jess PErry being a bad deal, even at $2500. I suppose it all comes down to the in-between, right?

What do you do as a horse analyst?

What types of people pay for your services?

Originally Posted by SentToStud

I still don't get it. Well, I do get the part where I, as horse analyst, tell someone that they have a pretty good chance to get a nice foal if they breed to AP Indy. That I get. Seems prety obvious. $300k is a lot of money right? I also get the part about Mr Jess PErry being a bad deal, even at $2500. I suppose it all comes down to the in-between, right?

What do you do as a horse analyst?

What types of people pay for your services?

Churchill Downs Inc., and I don't choose to be an agent because i don't have the ballsack to take people's money and tell them that my investment will probably fail for them (because 95% of investments in this game are failures), so I choose not to be an agent but have had plenty of chances......as for agent-type work, I do run my father's racing operation in Louisiana and we have about 31 head right now....I have alos made purchases and given consultance to several other owners (mostly in Texas and Louisiana) but I NEVER TOOK A DIME FOR IT and that is why I hate to label it agent work....Why should I make money off of people when I know that Im probably making a decision that will fail them?...It is just not for me as a career because I have never wanted to be viewed as that dirty little car salesman....no offense, Oracle...I know that most agents are legit, it is just not a successful enough business for me to gain self satisfaction from....I'd rather try not to lose too much of my father's money than have to worry about some guy calling me up when his $15,000 yearling purchase turns out to be a maiden claimer...just not for me...

I have gotten unsolicited commission checks if any of my advice has proven to help people, but lets face it...you are going to be wrong way more than you are right in this game...it is set up like ****...it is set up from a cost standpoint for people to fail....even when you are right sometimes and pick a horse out for a modest yearling price that goes on to break his maiden by 10, they usually get hurt shortly after and you look like a moron again for picking out a fragile horse

Originally Posted by oracle80

Pedigrees have to be the most overrated facet of the sport. And Joel did you say that even "Lauren Stich" does not know that? As if that column of hers is anything but hysterical reading when you have the blues? She overstates the obvious to the point of absurdity. WIll write a column that basically says a horse by a sprinter shouldnt go long and a horse by a stamina sire should go long. I find it a scream and have a few friends who read her column and howl with laughter, they just can't believe anyone would overstate the obvious. When it comes to science I would make Pgrdn 1-9 against any of the industry blowhards in terms of understanding the way that genetic works.

Fine but first of all, we seem to be talking about apples and oranges here....genetics and how they scientifically work is different than understanding pedigrees and what pedigrees work and why....there is nothing scientific behind my study....my studies are all analytical and on paper...not in the physical sense...

As for Stich, I was only using her name to make a point because most people know her pretty widespread for her pedigree write-ups in the Form...I haven't read one for years either and I know that she is Captain Obvious...I was making a point more than anything....

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing

Fine but first of all, we seem to be talking about apples and oranges here....genetics and how they scientifically work is different than understanding pedigrees and what pedigrees work and why....there is nothing scientific behind my study....my studies are all analytical and on paper...not in the physical sense...

As for Stich, I was only using her name to make a point because most people know her pretty widespread for her pedigree write-ups in the Form...I haven't read one for years either and I know that she is Captain Obvious...I was making a point more than anything....

Oh ok Joel. For a minute there I was terrified that you actually considered anything she wrote to be of value. I have to tell you that last year before the Remsen and the Demoiselle she did an article detailing the chances of the horses in those two races at winning in the first dirt stakes for that generation going a mile and an eigth. In the Demoiselle she literally wrote up every horse except one and extolled the virtues of their pedigrees. The only ones whose pedigree she didn't like and that she didn't write up was Wonder Lady Anne L. Gee, guess who won? Nah, a daughter of a horse who won the Derby and Preakness won't like going two turns, nah, no way.