Tom Fool + Dwyer

[VOL JACK]

Originally Posted by Danzig

Belmont Park - July 4th, 2007 - Race 8
Tom Fool Breeders' Cup H. - Grade: 2
Estimated Local Post Time: 4:43 PM
Race Type: Stakes
Breed: Thoroughbred
Age Restriction: Three Year Old and Upward
Purse: $200,000
Distance: Seven Furlongs
Surface: Dirt
Post Horse Name Age Sex Weight Jockey Name
1 Awesome Twist (KY) 5 Horse 115 Javier Castellano
2 Istan (KY) 5 Horse 116 Kent J. Desormeaux
3 High Finance (KY) 4 Colt 114 John R. Velazquez
4 Rondo (KY) 4 Colt 114 Edgar S. Prado
5 Will He Shine (KY) 5 Horse 117 Garrett K. Gomez
6 Commentator (NY) 6 Gelding 119 Corey S. Nakatani
7 Saint Anddan (KY) 5 Horse 119 Rafael Bejarano


Belmont Park - July 4th, 2007 - Race 9
Dwyer S. - Grade: 2
Estimated Local Post Time: 5:15 PM
Race Type: Stakes
Breed: Thoroughbred
Age Restriction: Three Year Old
Purse: $150,000
Distance: One And One Sixteenth Miles
Surface: Dirt
Post Horse Name Age Sex Weight Jockey Name
1 Helsinki (KY) 3 Colt 117 Corey S. Nakatani
2 Nobiz Like Shobiz (KY) 3 Colt 123 Cornelio H. Velasquez
3 Sightseeing (KY) 3 Colt 121 Edgar S. Prado
4 Believeinmenow (FL) 3 Colt 117 Michael J. Luzzi
5 First Defence (KY) 3 Colt 117 Javier Castellano
6 Any Given Saturday (KY) 3 Colt 121 Garrett K. Gomez

Looks like #6 and #6 to me. Both Fav's I know.
Comm. isn't going to have things all on his own on the front. That race looks like it it could flatter some of the the ones coming from off the pace.

[Cajungator26]

I'm leaning towards Nobiz in the Dwyer.

[Rileyoriley]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

I'm leaning towards Nobiz in the Dwyer.

He intrigues me. His sire just started to come into his own at this point. I'm interested in seeing how Nobiz has matured since the Derby.

[philcski]

Certainly better than the poo poo that was Saturday but still, not much to get excited about from a wagering perspective. Commentator either rolls or runs off the board... High Finance might be the one if that's the case, but I wouldn't take less than 5/2 on him and the Sheet number/Beyer was huge for his last and he'll get bet down off that. Rondo will take some money but he isn't good enough.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by philcski

Certainly better than the poo poo that was Saturday but still, not much to get excited about from a wagering perspective. Commentator either rolls or runs off the board... High Finance might be the one if that's the case, but I wouldn't take less than 5/2 on him and the Sheet number/Beyer was huge for his last and he'll get bet down off that. Rondo will take some money but he isn't good enough.

High Finance was a gift at that price. I was expecting 5/2.

[ateamstupid]

Nobiz is simply a very good two-year-old who hasn't yet (and may never) mature into a superstar three-year-old.

[robfla]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Nobiz is simply a very good two-year-old who hasn't yet (and may never) mature into a superstar three-year-old.

How are Albert the Great's turf sire numbers?

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by robfla

How are Albert the Great's turf sire numbers?

4-for-69 (6%) last update I have.. For what it's worth, Nobiz's mom was 2/0-1-0 on turf with a high BSF of 79 and his two siblings never tried it.

Any Given Saturday is working like a champion worm eater.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants

Any Given Saturday is working like a champion worm eater.

So is Nobiz.

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

So is Nobiz.

Not really. He had a two week break. That's always a red flag.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants

Not really. He had a two week break. That's always a red flag.

Perhaps, but with Tagg training him I can't see him running the horse if he isn't ready.

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

Perhaps, but with Tagg training him I can't see him running the horse if he isn't ready.

He'll need to be more than ready if he's going to beat Sightseeing and AGS. JMHO.

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Sightseeing? Really, I don't see it. He's pretty slow and would need to improve a lot here IMO.

He's not terribly slow. I thought his close in the Peter Pan was impressive. Seems to be improving and note he's undefeated at Belmont.

[VOL JACK]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Sightseeing? Really, I don't see it. He's pretty slow and would need to improve a lot here IMO.

I bet Prom Shoes in the N. Dancer @ CD against Chelokee and he didn't pick his feet up.

[miraja2]

I really like Nobiz Like Showbiz in the Dwyer.
He ran what was arguably his best race ever in the Holy Bull off of a similar long layoff. Although AGS's strong work on Friday seems to indicate that he might be ready on Wednesday, his performances in Tampa this winter/spring seems to indicate that he runs stronger 2nd off.
Sightseeing and First Defence are simply a step below these two in my opinion. In the Wood Memorial, Nobiz zipped the third quarter while Sightseeing loped along off the pace. Despite that favorable scenario, he couldn't get by Nobiz in the stretch. His victory in the G2 Peter Pan on this track will probably mean he will be overbet.
First Defence has won races against MSW and N1X competition when he had his own way on the front end of sprint races. I don't think he is in the same league as AGS or Nobiz.

[VOL JACK]

Originally Posted by miraja2

I really like Nobiz Like Showbiz in the Dwyer.
He ran what was arguably his best race ever in the Holy Bull off of a similar long layoff. Although AGS's strong work on Friday seems to indicate that he might be ready on Wednesday, his performances in Tampa this winter/spring seems to indicate that he runs stronger 2nd off.
Sightseeing and First Defence are simply a step below these two in my opinion. In the Wood Memorial, Nobiz zipped the third quarter while Sightseeing loped along off the pace. Despite that favorable scenario, he couldn't get by Nobiz in the stretch. His victory in the G2 Peter Pan on this track will probably mean he will be overbet.
First Defence has won races against MSW and N1X competition when he had his own way on the front end of sprint races. I don't think he is in the same league as AGS or Nobiz.

As our fearless leader (BTW) likes to say; First Defence eliminates the take out for me.

I don't think U can compare this race and layoff for AGS to the one this march. Pletcher knew it was going to be a long year for this colt and wasn't going to have him primed for his 1st start of the year. I think Todd realizes this is a great spot to pick up the colt 1st graded stake before he runs into Curlin, R2R, and S.S.