Curlin to be m/l fav

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by somerfrost

I stopped using the 4.00/1.00 guidelines a few years ago, Dr Roman himself has stated that due to recent breeding practices, those numbers are relatively weak...I do look at the points in DP however.

Ditto, Somer.

[slotdirt]

A Dual Qualifier hasn't won since like 1997.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

A Dual Qualifier hasn't won since like 1997.

Yep... figured I'd post them while we were on the topic, though. I hope a dual qualifier wins this year.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

Yep... figured I'd post them while we were on the topic, though. I hope a dual qualifier wins this year.

Gee, I wonder who?

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Gee, I wonder who?

I have no earthly idea! Haha

[Java Gold]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

Just what foundation are Street Sense and Circular Quay missing?

Oh, and can you give the formula that has worked for years and years?

Simple three preps before the derby period.... two preps for the both you mention... The last 1/8th will be their brick wall.

You want to look at foundation look at someone like Scat Daddy. Dual grade 1 winner, two 1 1/8 mile preps at 1:49. Who else can claim that? Horse is following the same path as Barbaro and getting totally ignored.

If you think the winner is coming off a weak prep (Bluegrass & an 8 week layoff) as Street Sense & Circular Quay are, please let me be your betting window May 5th.

Java OUT

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by Java Gold

Simple three preps before the derby period.... two preps for the both you mention... The last 1/8th will be their brick wall.

You want to look at foundation look at someone like Scat Daddy. Dual grade 1 winner, two 1 1/8 mile preps at 1:49. Who else can claim that? Horse is following the same path as Barbaro and getting totally ignored.

If you think the winner is coming off a weak prep (Bluegrass & an 8 week layoff) as Street Sense & Circular Quay are, please let me be your betting window May 5th.

Java OUT

I would certainly prefer for my selections to have three or (gasp!) more preps before the Derby, but does it really make sense to toss a horse just becuase they don't? Sunny's Halo did okay with only two preps. If SS or CQ had run in say....the Count Fleet this winter against the mighty Pink Viper....would that really help their respective Derby chances that much all these weeks later?
That just seems like a strange argument to me.

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by miraja2

I would certainly prefer for my selections to have three or (gasp!) more preps before the Derby, but does it really make sense to toss a horse just becuase they don't? Sunny's Halo did okay with only two preps. If SS or CQ had run in say....the Count Fleet this winter against the mighty Pink Viper....would that really help their respective Derby chances that much all these weeks later?
That just seems like a strange argument to me.

Once again...the angles should be viewed as additional info, they don't replace handicapping! If you really like a horse, you should stick with him/her...just be aware of the angle for perspective (ie: if you think Curlin is a super horse then going against some of the strongest angles won't bother you...otherwise?)

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Java Gold

Simple three preps before the derby period.... two preps for the both you mention... The last 1/8th will be their brick wall.

You want to look at foundation look at someone like Scat Daddy. Dual grade 1 winner, two 1 1/8 mile preps at 1:49. Who else can claim that? Horse is following the same path as Barbaro and getting totally ignored.

If you think the winner is coming off a weak prep (Bluegrass & an 8 week layoff) as Street Sense & Circular Quay are, please let me be your betting window May 5th.

Java OUT

I won't be using simple mechanical rules (less than three preps can't win the derby). Ideally whatever horse I back in the derby would have three preps as a 3YO.

Also, I put no stock in a statement like "horse is following the same path as Barbaro". Guess what? Scat Daddy is not Barbaro. Scat Daddy is not infused with any special magic because he came from the Florida preps. I guess you went all in last year with Lawyer Ron cause he was following the Smarty Jones path?

Why do you call the Blue Grass a weak prep? Isn't it customary to determine if the prep was strong or weak by watching what happens to the horses the next time they race? I know it was an oddly run race but I think its too early to call it weak.

[GPK]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I doubt that the third choice will be 5/1.

I agree Joe...last years favorite (SNS) went off at just over 5-1 and I don't think enough horses this year have done much to seperate themselves to justify a 5-1 third choice.

[GPK]

and I don't know how you guys keep up with all this Dosage stuff. This game is hard enough as it is...the last thing I need is more #'s like those running through my head while watching replays and capping.

[JDank34]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

I won't be using simple mechanical rules (less than three preps can't win the derby). Ideally whatever horse I back in the derby would have three preps as a 3YO.

Also, I put no stock in a statement like "horse is following the same path as Barbaro". Guess what? Scat Daddy is not Barbaro. Scat Daddy is not infused with any special magic because he came from the Florida preps. I guess you went all in last year with Lawyer Ron cause he was following the Smarty Jones path?

Why do you call the Blue Grass a weak prep? Isn't it customary to determine if the prep was strong or weak by watching what happens to the horses the next time they race? I know it was an oddly run race but I think its too early to call it weak.

totally agree AJ. you are right on point. to continue on your point if I may Barbaro didn't "follow" any path last year did he??? geez, everyone wants to look at 4 or 5 criteria and presto---a derby winner. Isn't part of the fun using our heads and handicapping race shape, speed dynamics, post positions, past performances, trainer angles, etc, etc, etc...not just falling in love with "trends" or "followed paths." also, i am a firm believer that we will find the bluegrass and the tampa bay derby to be THE 2 key preps this year....from that you can see the exacta I like....BUT i may change my opinion as the day gets closer due to weather, workouts, etc....oh, wait a minute that might not be black and white enough......haha

[JDank34]

Originally Posted by Java Gold

Simple three preps before the derby period.... two preps for the both you mention... The last 1/8th will be their brick wall.

You want to look at foundation look at someone like Scat Daddy. Dual grade 1 winner, two 1 1/8 mile preps at 1:49. Who else can claim that? Horse is following the same path as Barbaro and getting totally ignored.

If you think the winner is coming off a weak prep (Bluegrass & an 8 week layoff) as Street Sense & Circular Quay are, please let me be your betting window May 5th.

Java OUT

JG...nevermind

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by somerfrost

Once again...the angles should be viewed as additional info, they don't replace handicapping! If you really like a horse, you should stick with him/her...just be aware of the angle for perspective (ie: if you think Curlin is a super horse then going against some of the strongest angles won't bother you...otherwise?)

Obviously.
It just doesn't seem that Java is using them in the way you suggest, and is rather using the 3-prep angle as rule rather than an "angle."
I think you and I somer, are saying the same thing.

[Samarta]

Originally Posted by cakes44

I wish Battaglia did the race call for the Derby.

I didn't read the whole thread, so I don't know if this is a joke....if it is...it's not funny....if it's not...you can't be serious.....Now I know I'm dating myself here, but I remember when I was a little guy watching the Dean Martin Celebrity roasts and there was a guy that played a drunk on those things named Foster Brooks....Well I'd rather he call the Derby than Battaglia.....hopefully there is someone on this board that knows who Foster Brooks was.....

[hi_im_god]

Originally Posted by Samarta

I didn't read the whole thread, so I don't know if this is a joke....if it is...it's not funny....if it's not...you can't be serious.....Now I know I'm dating myself here, but I remember when I was a little guy watching the Dean Martin Celebrity roasts and there was a guy that played a drunk on those things named Foster Brooks....Well I'd rather he call the Derby than Battaglia.....hopefully there is someone on this board that knows who Foster Brooks was.....

a one note comedian.

carrot top for the 60's.

am i close?

[hi_im_god]

foster brooks, lenny bruce.

carrot top, bill hicks.

let's stop bringing bad comedians into serious topics.

thank you.

Originally Posted by hi_im_god

foster brooks, lenny bruce.

carrot top, bill hicks.

let's stop bringing bad comedians into serious topics.

thank you.

wow you dont like Bill Hicks or Lenny Bruce? Whom do you consider a good comedian?

[hi_im_god]

Originally Posted by easy goer

wow you dont like Bill Hicks or Lenny Bruce? Whom do you consider a good comedian?

it was a comparison of era's.

bad, good.

you missing the point, you knowing bill hicks.

Foster Brooks was more like the 70s; he may have done stuff in the 60s but the Dean Martin roasts were 70s. And Bill Hicks I thought was the 80s or maybe the 90s.??