The two prep approach?

[Java Gold]

Originally Posted by MaTH716

I personally do not care how many preps a horse has. With it being a twenty horse field these days, it is all about who gets the best trip. You need A LOT of racing luck!

Best trip or who has the best foundation? I would think with 20 horses you would want a horse that has had the customary 3 preps and has created a solid foundation. I can not put my cash down on a horse that is most likely to come up short that last 1/8th of a mile.

Java OUT

[Java Gold]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

3 out of the 4 horses you mention in the 1st post had a solid foundation as juveniles running in some of the key races and Hard Spun had some nice, albeit easy races. They are also trained by top class trainers. If they get beat in the Derby it will not be for lack of foundation IMO.

Please tell me then who in the past had great juvenile key races and only ran two preps as a 3yr. old and went to win the Derby? If history is any indicator the derby winner must have 3 preps prior to the derby. And every year we have top class trainers in the derby so why is this year any different?

Java OUT

[Payson Dave]

How many horses have run in the Derby with just 2 preps?...
If the population of 2 prep runners is quite small then it would be reasonable to assume that the number of 2 prep winners would be quite small...
Also how many 2 prep runners were Derby Fever type entrants as opposed to notable horses with calculated/planned 2 prep foundation?

I am not endorsing the 2 prep approach...I'm simply saying that there are various ways to compare past history to current events....figures lie and liars figure.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Payson Dave

How many horses have run in the Derby with just 2 preps?...
If the population of 2 prep runners is quite small then it would be reasonable to assume that the number of 2 prep winners would be quite small...
Also how many 2 prep runners were Derby Fever type entrants as opposed to notable horses with calculated/planned 2 prep foundation?

I am not endorsing the 2 prep approach...I'm simply saying that there are various ways to compare past history to current events....figures lie and liars figure.

It's the same fallacy of the "5 week layoff" into the Derby that was broken last year. What (legitimate) preps, exactly, were available 5 weeks out until the Fla Derby was moved 2 years ago? The answer: NONE.

I would prefer a 3-4 race campaign prep but only 2 would NOT be the reason I wouldn't back Street Sense or Great Hunter on Derby Day.

[slotdirt]

Street Sense in particular. I can think of about 1,528 reasons to not back Hard Spun with my money, but he's not among the two prep horses pointed at the 2007 Derby. I count three 2007 starts for our boy.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Street Sense in particular. I can think of about 1,528 reasons to not back Hard Spun with my money, but he's not among the two prep horses pointed at the 2007 Derby. I count three 2007 starts for our boy.

Duh, I meant Great Hunter. Too early in the morning for me.

[slotdirt]

Originally Posted by philcski

Duh, I meant Great Hunter. Too early in the morning for me.

Not talking to you, but the original post mentioned Hard Spun as a two prepper. That would be like calling Barbaro a two prepper last year because his first 2007 start was on the turf.

Anywho, my point is Street Sense is the nuts and Great Hunter is a stud and they're both only going to have two preps headed into the Derby. Hard Spun would be up there with the favorites if his connections weren't downright loony.