The two prep approach?
 

I am curious to hear from you if you think the two prep approach is a complete toss for the win position on May5th or does it just not matter?
Or does it not matter with this crop of 3yr. olds?

It has been accomplished before but hardly enough to get the blood flowing to attack this race for the win bet. There are a few that will go this route such as Hard Spun, Great Hunter, Street Sense,CQ to mention a few that will be heavily bet May 5th.

Thoughts?

Java OUT

I personally do not care how many preps a horse has. With it being a twenty horse field these days, it is all about who gets the best trip. You need A LOT of racing luck!

Best trip or who has the best foundation? I would think with 20 horses you would want a horse that has had the customary 3 preps and has created a solid foundation. I can not put my cash down on a horse that is most likely to come up short that last 1/8th of a mile.

Java OUT

Please tell me then who in the past had great juvenile key races and only ran two preps as a 3yr. old and went to win the Derby? If history is any indicator the derby winner must have 3 preps prior to the derby. And every year we have top class trainers in the derby so why is this year any different?

Java OUT

How many horses have run in the Derby with just 2 preps?...
If the population of 2 prep runners is quite small then it would be reasonable to assume that the number of 2 prep winners would be quite small...
Also how many 2 prep runners were Derby Fever type entrants as opposed to notable horses with calculated/planned 2 prep foundation?

I am not endorsing the 2 prep approach...I'm simply saying that there are various ways to compare past history to current events....figures lie and liars figure.

It's the same fallacy of the "5 week layoff" into the Derby that was broken last year. What (legitimate) preps, exactly, were available 5 weeks out until the Fla Derby was moved 2 years ago? The answer: NONE.

I would prefer a 3-4 race campaign prep but only 2 would NOT be the reason I wouldn't back Street Sense or Great Hunter on Derby Day.

Street Sense in particular. I can think of about 1,528 reasons to not back Hard Spun with my money, but he's not among the two prep horses pointed at the 2007 Derby. I count three 2007 starts for our boy.

Duh, I meant Great Hunter. Too early in the morning for me. :o

Not talking to you, but the original post mentioned Hard Spun as a two prepper. That would be like calling Barbaro a two prepper last year because his first 2007 start was on the turf.

Anywho, my point is Street Sense is the nuts and Great Hunter is a stud and they're both only going to have two preps headed into the Derby. Hard Spun would be up there with the favorites if his connections weren't downright loony.

The horse doesnt know how many preps he has had. The horse doesnt care. I think we are going to see more horses who already have the graded money only have 2 preps. I also think we are going to see more horses with 5-7 weeks off before the Derby. heck, just 5 years ago I believe, the Wood, Arkansas and Bluegrass were all run on the same day (usually about 3-4 weeks from the Derby). The only horse who needs 3 preps this year is Curlin because he had ZERO foundation.

When there are 50 cars in a race and 49 of them have six speeds and one has only four, the one with only four is at a distince disadvantage. When there is a race with 50 cars and 25 of them have six speed and 25 have four, the odds are more in your favor.

Usually, the ones that have come into the Derby with only two preps have had plenty of other disadvantages to overcome than just that. But in this new age, when more and more top contenders are coming in this way, it's just a matter of time before two preps becomes the norm rather than the exception. Once one wins, trainers being the copycats they are, will surely try to follow the same path with their horses.

Steve Haskin's recent column mentioned the two-prep thing, and while he didn't seem to think it's will continue to be a bet against for winning the Derby, he did think it is a huge negative in terms of a horse's long-term career-- after such light careers, horses can't handle three races in five weeks and aren't able to come back after the campaign because these days they don't have the foundation.

Oh I beg to differ that the horse does not know. Agree he does not when loading to go 1 1/4 miles but you bet your bottom dollar he will know when he starts wavering at 1/8 pole gasping for the line. Must have the 3 preps for me or toss out for the win.



Java OUT

I don't know if I agree with that. What if the three preps are 6f, 7f, and 1m? Would that be better than two preps, one at 8.5f and one at 9f? I don't know that I believe that. I think it's more about what kinds of races u have to get ready more than the number. If it's just simply a number of preps thing and three is better than two, wouldn't it stand to reason that four would be better than three and that five would be better than four?

Not that it's entirely similar, but when one prepares for a marathon, he or she never runs the full marathon distance before actually running the marathon. You do get pretty darn close though. I would say you'd at least like to see a horse get a 9f prep at some point before May 5.

I'm not a trainer (shocking news there) but if I were, I think the way I would do it is get the 9f prep out of the way first. Probably try to get it in mid-March. If it went well, in mid-April, maybe two weeks before the Derby, look to get a sharp mile into him. Could even be on the grass. I'd rather do it that way than run the hardest race as the last one before the Derby.

Ask Bob Baffert that with Point Given. Point Given is a classic classic case of one that should have been a Triple Crown winner. Complete monster...one of the greates looking horses I have ever seen!

Two preps and what happened in the derby? But goes on to win the Preakness & Belmont & Haskell & Travers.... etc....


Java OUT