This Given Saturday

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

An overlay is an overlay, whether it's 10-1 or 8-5. I think AGS would be 3-5 to beat the field if Street Sense weren't in it, so by tossing him, I'm getting twice the fair odds in my opinion.

By "tossing him", do you really think he has zero chance to win? Of course not. So, what chance do you give Street Sense? Let me turn that question around. Would you take 2-1 on Street Sense if you could get it? If so, you think he has at least a 33% chance to win the race.

You said AGS would be 3-5 to beat the field without Street Sense. If you mean 3-5 is fair odds, then that means that AGS would have a 5/8 = 62.5% chance to win the race without Street Sense. The rest of the field would have 37.5% chance to win. WITH Street Sense, those numbers are obviously reduced. If fair odds on Street Sense are, say, 2-1, then that 33% has to come from the chances of AGS and the other horses. AGS's chance to win would drop from 62.5% to around 42%. A 42% chance to win is close to 7-5. That's consistent with your 8-5, but it's heavily dependent on the fair odds you assign Street Sense. My point is it usually pays to assign odds rather than "toss". (unless you truly think Street Sense has zero chance, in which case you can make a ton of money by offering various people on this forum 2-1 on Street Sense.)

Originally Posted by pgardn

If he goes off at even money 8 times, and you keep betting against and finally hit that 10-1 shot on the 9th, you made your money back and more in one play.

That's a big "if". You have to not only be right that the fav is going to lose, but that your single play is going to win. Much more often, you will be "right" that the even money fav will lose, but you will be backing the wrong upsetter.

--Dunbar

Originally Posted by Dunbar

That's a big "if". You have to not only be right that the fav is going to lose, but that your single play is going to win. Much more often, you will be "right" that the even money fav will lose, but you will be backing the wrong upsetter.

--Dunbar

If you make that single play "longshot" play 9 times... you only have to hit it once. And if you find nine races in which you project fair odds close to but not double digits on a double digit odd horse...

I guess the real point is I would have never bet Lava MAN to win the 8 races he has. In hindsight I would be way ahead. But I never would have done this. How many times do you see even money favorites win 8 races in a row using any track and any 8 races on a given day?

[saucon17]

That was the best stakes race so far this year, Classic Calvin "Borail",
that race didn't deserve a loser

[Indian Charlie]

why the front wraps for street sense?

[saucon17]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

why the front wraps for street sense?

He had them on in BC Juvy, probably more cautionary than
anything or track is known for running down horses.

[GPK]

Originally Posted by saucon17

That was the best stakes race so far this year, Classic Calvin "Borail",
that race didn't deserve a loser

Mike...does anyone love the rail more than Calvin?? No fear....I love it.

[saucon17]

Originally Posted by GPK

Mike...does anyone love the rail more than Calvin?? No fear....I love it.

Kev, I never seen a jockey like Calvin squeeze through the smallest gap
on the rail. Has some Guts.

[PPerfectfan]

That is the Cajun coming out in him.lol 'Round here ya gotta go where ya gotta go. I think we just say the KY Derby winner folks. Some may say the race took alot out of SS but I think even if it did he has plenty of time to recover and doesnt have to win the next prep. Damn he is nice. And couldnt happen to better connections. Geaux Calvin!!

[zippyneedsawin]

Originally Posted by saucon17

Kev, I never seen a jockey like Calvin squeeze through the smallest gap
on the rail. Has some Guts.

If he keeps trying that he's going to get burned eventually.

[GPK]

Originally Posted by zippyneedsawin

If he keeps trying that he's going to get burned eventually.

Zip...you live and die with a him, just like someone lives and dies with a guy like Albarado, who is incredibly allergic to the rail. You just pick your poison sometimes I guess.

For my money...give me a guy like Borel that owns a set of nuts. You hate to lose anyway...but I don't wanna lose by a guy being scared to take a hole on the rail.