This Given Saturday
 

Whether you like him or not, this is a terrible spot for Street Sense if anywhere near the morning line 4-5. Any Given Saturday will be low odds himself, but at 8-5, he's a steal against a field where he would be 3-5 if Street Sense weren't taking any money. Swallow your foolish longshot pride and unload on AGS.

Or better yet, unload on Optimistic Steve.

or dont unload on anyone... and play some pick 4's

What is your opinion on this race? I can't see Street Sense being 100%, but maybe he doesn't need to be. Lori and I were told last week that Pletcher's fave derby horse is Any Given Saturday (and Scat Daddy for sentimental reasons.)

Thanks for your opinion... I agree with you, but might take a chance with Optimistic Steve because his odds will probably be too good to pass up. :o

I'm pessimistic about Steve. Gotta stay closer to the front to have a shot.

Haha! That's hilarious. :D

The Naf moved Street Sense up a week according to my recollection. That means the horse is working well. If this horse is working well. He can win without being full bore. Ole Carl says we just want him to run a smooth race. Relaxed, and balanced, dont matter if I win says ole Carl... Horse is too good, even if he struts around in a very even manner.
Just because they dont need to win a prep does not mean they wont win it anyway with a horse like this. This race is a no go for me.

The only horse I like in the Derby preps is Officer Rocket at the right price. And I hate having other horses needing to crater in order to win. But thats what has got to happen in the Rebel for Officer Rocket to win. Curlin, Flying First Class and Teufelsbergerhead have got to do some burning up front. I hate having to count on that. This should be the race to bet if you have to bet a Derby prep. D. Wayne is ready to burn some flesh.

Optimistic Steve is lightly raced, so he's obviously got room to improve.

But we're asking HUGE improvement here to have a chance this. His best race ever is about equal to Street Sense, Any Given Saturday, and Most Distinguished's career WORST race ever, including their respective first times out.

If you're fishing for a price, Most Distinguished seems like a much better option in here because he doesn't get much better, but he doesn't get much worse.

Steve would be a total surprise for the win, if you ask me.

Last time we saw Street Sense he left in his wake Scat Daddy, Circular Quay, and Great Hunter, all three who have since returned and won Graded stakes races.

Last we saw AGS it took what I would call a vigorous handride to put away All I Can Get, a 33:1 shot whose previous claim to fame was winning the Patrickwood for Michigan breds at Great Lakes Downs.

I'm not sold on the "load up on AGS" idea.

Agree.

--Dunbar

for once i totally agree with you, earlier this week i was full blown on making a big win bet on street sense i have definitly backed off that because of value, and a few other things, but i will say that i still think he wins and im strongly considering playing a heavy pick 4 with him keyed on the back end, the horses you mentioned that street sense beat have all been great, you also have stormello who ran huge, so he beat alot of really good horses who have all come back to run well, and for the ppl who say the juvenile was a fluke, i say that in all of his previous starts he was no worst then 3rd, all except for possibly his maiden score were vs very good company.

I'm not dismissing Street Senses performance in the BC juvy, but I think it's irrelevant tomorrow. He hasn't raced in over 4 months, and doesn't have a trip over the tricky surface at Tampa. And most importantly, whether it's trainer speak or not, the horse is not cranked and does not need to win. All he wants is a good performance.
Any Given Saturday needs the Graded Earnings to get to the derby,
and is ready to roll.
Bet against Pletcher and Velasquez at your own risk.

If Any Given Saturday and Grapelli both win tomorrow, Pletcher might have over half of a 20 horse field in the Kentucky Derby. If this happens, I plan to introduce a bill in the Texas House of Representatives declaring Todd Pletcher "Little Baby Jesus"

Todd went to High School at Madison in San Antonio, so I think this makes him eligible. I dont think he has the earnings in State.

kind of like last year at tampa bay with another horse who was supposed to be a standout, bluegrass cat...... everyone keeps saying he wont be cranked, but he dosent have to be cranked to beat this group, im going to bed now, good luck to everyone tommorw

The BC JUV irrelevant? How can one of the biggest figure two year old races ever not be relevant?

Okay, four months off is something to consider. But I see 10 works since Jan 29th. He hasn't exactly been resting on his laurels.

The tricky Tampa surface? Yeah thats another factor, but he's ran well at several tracks including the poly at Keeneland. I don't have the feeling that he's going to have that much difficulty with it.

As far as trainerspeak goes, well all I can say is bet on trainerspeak at your own risk.:D I think if Nafzger gets his good performance then Street Sense wins.

Yep, you can't ignore anything TP sends out, and I'm not advocating that people unload on Street Sense. Its just that he's like the 800lb gorilla in the corner, hard to ignore.

Based on the very explosive moves he made in his last two races, I honestly think he could win this not "fully cranked" and even if he didn't fully care for the surface. But I don't feel inclined to bet on this one, rather just watch this time.

A 60% Street Sense blows these horses away.

And anybody who thought the Juvenile was a fluky performance didn't watch the Futurity at Keeneland when Street Sense ran a sensational race. 4-5 wide on first turn, giant sustained move to force a fast pace 4 wide on the 2nd turn, put all the other speed away, and after all that, Circular Quay beat him for second by 1 inch and Great Hunter beat him for the win by about a length.

This race is probably a no-bet situation unless you're playing the pk4 or show a lack of discipline like me. . . with that being said:

Pletcher has been pointing AGS towards this race for a while. He's got a race over the track and in my opinion is underrated. I think if the two favorites get into a slugfest in the final strides he takes it because he has proven his gameness and also will be more cranked up than Street Sense. And with all due respect to Borel and Nafzger, Johnny V. and Pletcher are a little more intimidating.

I'm seeing Street Sense in the same way that I (correctly) saw Summer Doldrums last week. Violette undertrained SD for fear of a bounce and SD had a lackluster performance. Nafzger probably doesn't fear the bounce for this horse because of the time off between races, but he is obviously trying to start him off slow and he won't be anywhere close to 100% for this race.

I still think Street Sense's health should still be in question despite the way he's supposedly working and it will be interesting to see how he looks in the post parade. I've been on AGS since before his race vs. Tiz Wonderful and I'm not jumping off now. . .

I LOVE Optimistic Steve so I'll probably play a $20 exacta AGS over Optimistic Steve and $10 Exacta the other way. . .