Next Big Stallion? What is your opinion?

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by pgardn

Why dont we just carry out little breeding experiments, see how nice they look as two year olds, and never let them on the track. The industry could make it like a dog show. We could parade them around and wager on who the judges think look the nicest. Just make racing totally into breeding and conformation. That sounds fun.

Let em run for Christ sakes.

You get to watch the horses work an 1/8th or even a 1/4 of a mile at the 2 year old sales. If you know what you are looking at, you will have a very good idea as to which sires are throwing runners. You don't need to wait until they run in a race to know which ones can run.
With yearlings, you can't tell nearly as much. However, even with yearlings you can make a good educated guess as to which ones can run. Last year we bought 15 yearlings for our pinhooking business. Every single one of them could run. Every single horse worked an 1/8th of a mile in :10 and change. Actually, there was one horse that worked :11 flat. That's pretty darn good. Basically every horse could run a little and some of them could run a lot.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

You get to watch the horses work an 1/8th or even a 1/4 of a mile at the 2 year old sales. If you know what you are looking at, you will have a very good idea as to which sires are throwing runners. You don't need to wait until they run in a race to know which ones can run.
With yearlings, you can't tell nearly as much. However, even with yearlings you can make a good educated guess as to which ones can run. Last year we bought 15 yearlings for our pinhooking business. Every single one of them could run. Every single horse worked an 1/8th of a mile in :10 and change. Actually, there was one horse that worked :11 flat. That's pretty darn good. Basically every horse could run a little and some of them could run a lot.

A lot of thoroughbreds can run... it's how they perform in a race that sets apart the good ones and the bad ones. I had an appendix (he was my showjumper) that could beat my sister's thoroughbred (off the track, stakes winner of $100,000) up to a mile, but he had a herd mentality and would freak out if he got too far ahead of the others. To me, it takes an actual race or at the very least, a good 6 furlong work with 3 or 4 other horses to see how a horse really performs. Sometimes the most talented animals don't have it in them to actually win the races. JMO.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

A lot of thoroughbreds can run... it's how they perform in a race that sets apart the good ones and the bad ones. I had an appendix (he was my showjumper) that could beat my sister's thoroughbred (off the track, stakes winner of $100,000) up to a mile, but he had a herd mentality and would freak out if he got too far ahead of the others. To me, it takes an actual race or at the very least, a good 6 furlong work with 3 or 4 other horses to see how a horse really performs. Sometimes the most talented animals don't have it in them to actually win the races. JMO.

I'm obviously not going be able to tell you exactly what a horse will accomplish in his career based on an 1/8th of a mile work. There's no way to do that. I'm not trying to do that. I am trying to pick out stakes horses and if I'm right around 35% of the time, then I'm doing really well. I would expect all the horses I pick to be able to run. I would estimate that around 70% of the horses I pick will be able to break their maiden in their first couple of starts unless they are horses that look like they want to run really long.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I'm obviously not going be able to tell you exactly what a horse will accomplish in his career based on an 1/8th of a mile work. There's no way to do that. I'm not trying to do that. I am trying to pick out stakes horses and if I'm right around 35% of the time, then I'm doing really well. I would expect all the horses I pick to be able to run. I would estimate that around 70% of the horses I pick will be able to break their maiden in their first couple of starts unless they are horses that look like they want to run really long.

That makes complete sense. Thanks for the input.

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I'm obviously not going be able to tell you exactly what a horse will accomplish in his career based on an 1/8th of a mile work. There's no way to do that. I'm not trying to do that. I am trying to pick out stakes horses and if I'm right around 35% of the time, then I'm doing really well. I would expect all the horses I pick to be able to run. I would estimate that around 70% of the horses I pick will be able to break their maiden in their first couple of starts unless they are horses that look like they want to run really long.

If you could add heart with the obvious athletes, then that 35% would go way up. I am very partial to horses that dont quit, especially after big setbacks. The problem is figuring out which horses they are. And that of course is done on the track.

But who cares about all this. I wanna see athletes compete on the track, not in the shed. Thats why the thread is interesting, but at the same time a bit disconcerting.
But I understand the fascination as genetics is a very inexact science. One day someone is going to find the combination of genes that have the highest probability of making good runners. Then all hell will break loose. They are mapping the Thoroughbred genome as we speak. In fact, they may be done. Cornell was coordinating and distributing the work. It will be interesting to see how people take this data and try to correlate it with performance. Its coming.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by pgardn

If you could add heart with the obvious athletes, then that 35% would go way up. I am very partial to horses that dont quit, especially after big setbacks. The problem is figuring out which horses they are. And that of course is done on the track.

But who cares about all this. I wanna see athletes compete on the track, not in the shed. Thats why the thread is interesting, but at the same time a bit disconcerting.
But I understand the fascination as genetics is a very inexact science. One day someone is going to find the combination of genes that have the highest probability of making good runners. Then all hell will break loose. They are mapping the Thoroughbred genome as we speak. In fact, they may be done. Cornell was coordinating and distributing the work. It will be interesting to see how people take this data and try to correlate it with performance. Its coming.

I agree that there is no way to know how much heart a horse has from watching them work an 1/8th of a mile at a sale.
With regard to breeding, it's really not that important to me who a horse is by. If I like the way a horse works at a sale, I'm going to be interested in him no matter who he is by. One of the best horses I ever bought was by a sire that I knew very little about.