Two at Toga (2025)

[moses]

Bellezza was much the best, paying $7.50 to win and $5.10 to place. Irish Gent could not hold off his stablemate but was able to hold on for place, paying $10.80. I should have had a much better day than I had today but somehow ended up down a little.


$328.00 wagered
$375.90 returned

Hoping to finish off the meet strong. See above for the explanation for my picks for tomorrow.

Race 5. #5 White Abarrio 8/1.
Race 10. #9 Big Invasion 5/1

[theguarantee]

Best Bet: Race 14 #7 Blame It On KJ 10/1 - Feel obligated to take another shot today after I liked in the off the turf race a couple weeks back. That was some trip in there and I think the stretchout definitely helped, now gets back to turf and should be tighter, has to still move quite a bit forward to be competitive here I know.

Best Value: Race 10 #10 Step Forward 12/1 - I think you can draw a line through the G2 attempt down the hill that completed his 5 year old season...with the lengthy layoff the June effort felt like a prep and he's moved forward exactly as you'd have hoped since that, narrowly missing in a couple spots...when you do that I think he's the most consistent runner in the field...Big Invasion and Dancing Buck are both coming off layoffs, if either of them run their A race he probably isn't good enough but I don't totally buy that last effort from Twenty Six Black...I would argue he's about as likely as anyone in here and figures to be one of the better prices, although obviously with the scratches 12/1 is no longer going to happen.

Good Luck

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Bellezza was much the best, paying $7.50 to win and $5.10 to place. Irish Gent could not hold off his stablemate but was able to hold on for place, paying $10.80. I should have had a much better day than I had today but somehow ended up down a little.


$328.00 wagered
$375.90 returned

Hoping to finish off the meet strong. See above for the explanation for my picks for tomorrow.

Race 5. #5 White Abarrio 8/1.
Race 10. #9 Big Invasion 5/1

Terrible today.

$336.00 wagered
$375.90 returned

Sunday.

Race 1. #2 Grunge 6/1. I like the workouts on this horse and think some of the others in here will be overbet. I know everyone hates Carmouche right now but think he steals this one.

Race 10. #10 Versus 12/1. The figures fit for this longshot and should get pace to run into. Jose Ortiz hops aboard, major rider upgrade.

[theguarantee]

Best Value: Race 11 #6 Cleopatra's Key 12/1 - Some may view the improvement second out as the move to dirt but the debut effort had several excuses and I think the improvement had more to do with experience. Now, 3rd out she should be ready to fire a big effort as she's bred for the turf - it remains to be seen really how good she is but today is the day to find out.

Best Bet: Race 10 #3 Stars and Strides 9/2 - I guess last time was the time but I just think he's really good and hope the bettors go over the top for Asbury Park one more time as I'm not a big fan of his for better or worse. I tried to talk myself into a few of the longshots but ultimately I think Stars and Strides is probably the best horse in here and should sit the best trip behind a decent pace but with less to do than the main challenger.

[moses]

Neither Grunge nor Versus was good enough. Two misses to end the meet but it was a very good meet for me overall. I hit a good number of longshots, some nice doubles, and a $2700 Pick 5 to ensure I was positive for the meet overall.

$344.00 wagered
$375.90 returned

Not bad. Hope everyone had some memorable winners over the last couple months.