Two at Toga (2023)

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Thanks theguarantee. I thought he was gonna hold him off. But still ran very well.

Thursday picks.

I’m hoping these races can stay on the turf because there are some nice fields today.

First bet: Race 3 - #4 Main Event 6/1. I think this horse had everything against him last time out. Off nearly a year layoff in 4YO debut and had the pace pressed a bit by eventual winner Jerry the Nipper. Granted, Kuramata (Brown), Unanimous Consent (Brown), and Grand Sonata (Pletcher) were all off similar layoffs but those barns tend to perform better off the long layoff than Weaver. I expect him to be in better shape this time around and I don’t really see any horse challenging him on the front end as I think Safe Conduct is too slow to really provide much pressure. Looking to wire them at 6/1 (or maybe better as I expect Easter and Kuramata to really get hammered at the tote.)

Second bet: Race 6 - #9 Fauci 8/1. I’ve always thought this horse was a bit overrated but he’s certainly talented, finishing in the money in 14 of 18 career starts (only 2 wins) and 5 ITM finishes in 5 career starts at Saratoga (though no wins). I don’t love the post position but he’s now got Prat aboard and I’ll trust Prat to put him in good position to close into what should be a pretty honest pace. At 8/1, I think he’s worth taking a chance on. He’s been 8/1 or higher in 4 of his last 10 starts, finishing 2nd once (by a neck) and 3rd thrice (missing first or second by 3/4 lengths in each of those). Point being, he should be competitive here, should get a favorable pace scenario, should improve in 2nd off layoff, gets a jockey upgrade, and should be a nice price. I’m giving him another shot (no pun intended.)

Fauci ran well, finishing 2nd but couldn’t run the winner down. Main Event is out of excuses. He’s just not as good as I thought.

$248.00 wagered
$263.70 returned

Friday picks.

First bet: Race 9 - #6 Clairiere 5/2. With the addition of some forwardly placed horses, I don’t think Nest will get as easy of a trip this time out. I love Clairiere here and don’t mind taking a short price on her.

Second bet: Race 8 - #7 Modern Love 12/1. I had originally handicapped this card with the assumption that all turf races would be off. This one stays on and I want to take a shot on Modern Love. They’ve tried to get her on turf a few times to no avail. Has a turf pedigree. Not really impressed with any of the likely favorites in here and she should be a good price.

[theguarantee]

Best Bet: Race 9 - #3 Secret Oath 8/1 - The way I see the race unfolding I expect at least an honest pace with Idiomatic and Nest knocking heads a bit. I don't expect it to be that fast but honest enough. Looking through the rest of the field I think Secret Oath is the only alternative who's best punch gives her much of a chance. Hoping she makes first run and gets by those two and then will just be begging for the wire. It wasn't that long ago that she nearly held off Clariere in the Apple Blossom and while I don't think Tyler stopped riding or did anything wrong I got the sense that he thought she had the race won. I imagine that would not be the case if she makes the front today.

Best Value: Race 8 - #8 Lullaby Land 8/1 - If you think Anatolian is the horse to beat in here, and I do, I think you want to give a long look to this runner. When they met three back she was grabbed right away to get way behind a very slow pace going todays distance. I know she doesn't possess any early speed but I thought that was a bit excessive. She then made a huge middle move while Anatolian just sat a perfect pocket trip, let her pass and then finished up a bit better. Maybe that one is just really improving for Mike Maker but I think at the expected odds its worth a shot. I also think its a good sign Jose is back aboard today.

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Fauci ran well, finishing 2nd but couldn’t run the winner down. Main Event is out of excuses. He’s just not as good as I thought.

$248.00 wagered
$263.70 returned

Friday picks.

First bet: Race 9 - #6 Clairiere 5/2. With the addition of some forwardly placed horses, I don’t think Nest will get as easy of a trip this time out. I love Clairiere here and don’t mind taking a short price on her.

Second bet: Race 8 - #7 Modern Love 12/1. I had originally handicapped this card with the assumption that all turf races would be off. This one stays on and I want to take a shot on Modern Love. They’ve tried to get her on turf a few times to no avail. Has a turf pedigree. Not really impressed with any of the likely favorites in here and she should be a good price.

And of course Race 8 is OFF now. I toyed with the thought of going with Daily Grind in race 6…which was my original pick. But I think Dahoss is right that the race is loaded so I’m going to take a shot instead with #7 Going the Distance in race 10. Good luck all.

Posting Saturday picks as well.

Race 10 - #2 Matareya 6/1.
Race 12 - #2 Arcangelo 5/2.

[theguarantee]

With race 8 off ill pivot to race 6 #1 Air of Defiance. Loaded field and don't be much of a price but I think is getting a little ignored in the early getting sue to the rail draw which doesn't concern me as much as others in dirt sprints at the Spa.

[moses]

Maybe I should have gone Secret Oath over Clairiere…but definitely did not expect Idiomatic to get loose on the lead and never even get contested.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by moses

Maybe I should have gone Secret Oath over Clairiere…but definitely did not expect Idiomatic to get loose on the lead and never even get contested.

I liked Idiomatic too but downgraded due to Geroux/Cox 3/39 .20 ROI on Dirt last 365. Pratt has been his go to guy... Oh well

[theguarantee]

Irad is such a thorn in my side

[moses]

Originally Posted by jms62

I liked Idiomatic too but downgraded due to Geroux/Cox 3/39 .20 ROI on Dirt last 365. Pratt has been his go to guy... Oh well

I just really screwed up the pace for that race. Ah well. It happens.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by jms62

I liked Idiomatic too but downgraded due to Geroux/Cox 3/39 .20 ROI on Dirt last 365. Pratt has been his go to guy... Oh well

Forgot to mention this was Graded Stakes stats

[theguarantee]

Wagered: $256.00
Returned: $268.70

Anthracite was dreadful while Jumbly ran a very mediocre third. Yesterday Air of Defiance had a brutal trip breaking awfully from the rail (insert foot in mouth) closing well to get up for second paying a generous 5.10 to place. Would love to have seen if Secret Oath could've gotten the job done if Irad didnt decide the gameplan was to let Idiomatic get loose on the lead. Maybe Idiomatic was just best but that seemed insane to me and Secret Oath got back to a much better racing paying 7.20 to place. Still finalizing some stuff will be back with todays picks later.

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

And of course Race 8 is OFF now. I toyed with the thought of going with Daily Grind in race 6…which was my original pick. But I think Dahoss is right that the race is loaded so I’m going to take a shot instead with #7 Going the Distance in race 10. Good luck all.

Posting Saturday picks as well.

Race 10 - #2 Matareya 6/1.
Race 12 - #2 Arcangelo 5/2.

Heading into Saturday. My picks were awful yesterday.

$256.00 wagered
$263.70 returned

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Heading into Saturday. My picks were awful yesterday.

$256.00 wagered
$263.70 returned

Arcangelo saved my day with a big win in the Travers.

$264.00 wagered
$276.40 returned

[jms62]

Originally Posted by moses

Arcangelo saved my day with a big win in the Travers.

$264.00 wagered
$276.40 returned

Well done. That was the most evenly matched Travers from Top to bottom that I can remember.

[moses]

Originally Posted by jms62

Well done. That was the most evenly matched Travers from Top to bottom that I can remember.

Thanks.

Sunday picks.

Race 2 - #3 Cairo Sugar 4/1
Race 8 - #5 Noble Huntsman 12/1

[theguarantee]

Best Bet: Race 5 - #5 Runaway Rumor 3/1 - I don't know what to say other than I can't quit her. Do think she's a little dirtied up and hoping Ricardo defaults back to her winning style sitting back and making one run.

Best Value: Race 8: #2 Be of Courage 8/1 - Has spent the majority of his career sprinting but the dam was a confirmed router. Navy has ridden him a few times now including the impressive maiden breaker going back. Low profile connections should ensure a nice price and I'm looking for a bit of an outsider in this field today.

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Thanks.

Sunday picks.

Race 2 - #3 Cairo Sugar 4/1
Race 8 - #5 Noble Huntsman 12/1

Cairo sugar scratched. Give me race 7 - #6 Stellamaris 5/2

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Arcangelo saved my day with a big win in the Travers.

$264.00 wagered
$276.40 returned

Stellamaris got nabbed at the end to finish second. No clue what happened to Noble Huntsman. I stopped watching.

$272.00 wagered
$279.90 returned

[theguarantee]

Well that was sick - was going to make Sail With the Wind a play off the debut - didn't think there was any dirt breeding so just tossed in my stable mail and didn't even use in my picks. Ugh, onto the final week....

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Stellamaris got nabbed at the end to finish second. No clue what happened to Noble Huntsman. I stopped watching.

$272.00 wagered
$279.90 returned

Wednesday picks.

First bet: Race 5 #3 Antares 10/1. So, I love this horse in this race. I might be wrong but he was bumped at the start 2 back but still rushed to the front and he just blew those horses off their feet. The runner up is a 4-time 2nd place finisher who still hasn’t broken his maiden but he topped him by 4 lengths and the 3rd place finisher was 14 lengths behind Antares. He has yet to run on dirt but he sports 4 workouts at Saratoga that suggest he won’t have a problem handling the surface at all. Gilmore will be a massive favorite here, and rightfully so. But where exactly is the speed in this race? I think it’s Antares and if he gets loose, he could be very dangerous for a barn that’s been very dangerous in 2023. Breeding suggests he shouldn’t have any issue with 1 mile.

Second bet: Race 8 - #4 Signal From Noise 5/1. I just don’t love the likely favorites in this one and think there is enough pace that you want a horse who can rally from off the pace. I’m not sure about the addition of blinkers here but like that Prat is aboard and think she will appreciate the cutback.

[theguarantee]

Best Bet: race 6 # 7 Printrack 8/4
Best Value: Race 7: #14 Katie's Checkride 15/1