Two at Toga (2022)

[theguarantee]

Best Bet - Race 6: 1 Gambling Girl 7/2 - Won’t be surprised if we get more or less than the morning line in here. I thought the debut was an educational trip this one will move forward off of. Got some dirt, was ridden hard for a long while and seemed to find stride late. Should appreciate another furlong today.

Best Value - Race 10: 7 Glitter Up 10/1: With plenty of flashier pedigrees and connections I just think she’s going to offer some value in here. Might seem (or be) like not the winning type given 3 seconds in 4 starts but she has speed, worked lights out since the last and while overlooked should be dangerous today at a nice price.

Good luck - ps nice picking of late Moses, hopefully that doesn’t jinx you today.

[moses]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

Best Bet - Race 6: 1 Gambling Girl 7/2 - Won’t be surprised if we get more or less than the morning line in here. I thought the debut was an educational trip this one will move forward off of. Got some dirt, was ridden hard for a long while and seemed to find stride late. Should appreciate another furlong today.

Best Value - Race 10: 7 Glitter Up 10/1: With plenty of flashier pedigrees and connections I just think she’s going to offer some value in here. Might seem (or be) like not the winning type given 3 seconds in 4 starts but she has speed, worked lights out since the last and while overlooked should be dangerous today at a nice price.

Good luck - ps nice picking of late Moses, hopefully that doesn’t jinx you today.

Thanks. It’s nice to catch up a bit.

After Day 10.
Total wagered: $80.00
Total returned: $85.00
Record 20 4-5-2

[moses]

Thursday, July 28.

Best bet: Race 3 - #2 Auburn Hills 8/1 ML, Persaud/Alvarado. In a race that doesn't seem to have much early speed, I think it makes a lot of sense to take a shot on Auburn Hills given his running style and the cutback in distance. I assume Boldish would have been heavily favored, dropping in for a tag, but the works haven't been great, there was no work last week, and we haven't seen him race since January at Parx. With Boldish scratched, I'm not sure the price we'll get on Auburn Hills but I think he's a winner here.

Best value: Race 9 (on the turf) - #9 Ajourneytofreedom 8/1 ML, Maker/Saez. We'll see if this race stays on the turf as thunderstorms are possible this afternoon at Saratoga. If this one washes off, I'm going to have to post an alternate here. I think Ajourneytofreedom is worth a 2nd chance after coming up empty at Churchill on 5/21. Maker always seems to do well in these long turf routes and Ajourneytofreedom is getting some class relief from his previous races. He has a strong set of workouts heading into this race and, although I haven't been crazy about Saez at Saratoga, I think the odds will make this one worth it. Alternate best value: Race 4 - #2 Sinful Dancer 5/1 ML, Weaver/Cancel. (Has shown some early speed previously, adds blinkers, fast workout 5 days ago, and races last year and earlier this year against Americanrevolution and Disco Pharoah make me think he can get it done against this group.)

[theguarantee]

Thursday, 7/28
Best Bet - Race 4: 8 Devil Boy 4/1
Thinking today is the day for him. Like that he gets a little added ground given that he always breaks poorly. Should sit a pretty good trip today and definitely has the ability to turn the tables on Ocean's Reserve in my opinion. Not a ton else to fear in here in my opinion.

Best Value - Race 7: 2 Immortalization 8/1
I'm hoping he goes off at a bit of a price for some low profile connections. Michelle Hemingway is dangerous though and two of the last three efforts give this horse a big shot in here to me. Not sure what happened two back, but the fact that they wheeled back two weeks later and won in a common gallop, clear in a turf sprint tells me there was an excuse. Big ask today but should be a worthy price to find out.

Good luck.

[moses]

Well, Auburn Hills went off at 2/1 and faded in the stretch to finish 3rd. The 9th race was off the turf. In the 4th, my alternate Sinful Dancer just wasn't good enough and ran 4th.

After Day 11.
Total wagered: $88.00
Total returned: $85.00
Record 22 4-5-3

Friday, July 29.

Best bet: Race 8 - #4 Fauci 9/2 ML, Antonacci/Santana. Maybe I'm not giving this one enough thought but I just think Fauci is the most talented turf horse in this race. He'll need to stay out of trouble but I'll certainly take 9/2 on him if that's what price he goes off at.

Best Value: Race 7 - #2 Gilded Age 10/1 ML, Mott/Alvarado. I could be wrong but I think this is a horse with some talent. That's maybe why Mott sent him to the Withers after his maiden win and sent him to Dubai after the Withers. He looked pretty good against much weaker in his first race back in the States and now looks to take another step forward. He'll need to in order to have a chance here. But now in his 2nd race after Dubai, I think he will. Creative Minister is a very nice horse but you've got to wonder if he's had anything taken out of him from the Preakness and Belmont. And notably, his two wins he got pretty nice trips. So although I've liked him, I'm not betting him here. I actually think the "horse to beat" may be the Brown/Irad combo on Artorious who will try two turns for the first time. But at a short price, I'm not all that interested in him. For me, it's Gilded Age, who will need some pace to have a chance and I'm hoping that the combination of A.P.'s Secret, Wolfe County, Make it Big, and Be Better will provide some pace for him to run into. We'll see about that. Another reason I like him is that I like to see a horse make a big move on the turn and still run OK in the stretch and he did that in the Withers. Last time out, he seemed to have timed his move a little later and was really motoring home in the stretch. Alvarado stays aboard so hopefully he works out a good trip for him once again.

[theguarantee]

Have to update my totals this weekend. Onto Friday, 7/29
Best Bet - Race 10: 6 Stella Mars 6/1
Just going back through this field time and again kept coming back to Stella Mars. I know that horses with a huge close sprinting stretching out tend to be overbet but if the morning line is accurate here I think there may actually be some value. Her effort at a mile was pretty good and I thought the move was mistimed by Samuels. Huge upgrade to Rosario who rode her last time for a career effort and sees fit to stay on the stretchout and jump in class. I just kept coming back to her as simply the best runner in the field.

Best Value - Race 8: 9 Kobe Tough 30/1
Probably should put the pipe down I guess but going to take a wild swing on a horse who has no chance at all on paper. That said, I'm just not a big believer in any of the favorites in here, they're all fine and can win but I wanted to try to find a price and I couldn't really talk myself into any of the more logicals in that category. I'm taking a chance here that Kobe Tough is a rapidly improving horse who takes another big leap forward today. The horse showed a little bit of ability as a 2yo sprinting on the turf...they then moved to dirt for a while and I'm kind of crossing those races off although he was showing some slight steady progress. After the freshening they got back to what I think is his game and three back he got into some trouble after the start and in the stretch but ultimately probably needed the race. The trip Jose Ortiz gave him two back in a huge field going 5F at Pimlico was awful and yet he was finishing with some interest. Last out he showed some real versatility as previously he was used as a stone cold closer, going back to running on the lead as he did in those 2yo turf sprints...opened up 5 and while he was getting caught late was never in danger. That 79 Beyer leaves him wanting a lot more improvement to get even close to some of these today but I think his tactical speed and ability to pass horses will suit well in here and at the expected price I will take a stab.

Good luck

[moses]

After Day 11.
Total wagered: $96.00
Total returned: $93.30
Record 24 4-6-4

Gilded age returned $8.30 to place but was never going to catch Artorius. I probably should have given more thought to the Fauci race as he ran 3rd and couldn’t run down a big longshot to get up for 2nd.

I haven’t gotten to look at this card as much as I’d like.

Best bet: Race 2 - #10 Son of a Birch 10/1 ML, Morley/Castellano. I like these Temple City horses in turf routes and Javy is pretty hot lately. This one never had a chance in his last.

Best value: Race 5 - #2 Flying Emperor 10/1 ML, Wright/De Diego. I’m a sucker for some of these Finger Lakes horses as they’re almost always underbet. This one has never finished worse than 2nd.