Two at Toga (2022)

[theguarantee]

The picks yesterday were not good. Continues to be feast or famine.

Saturday, 7/23
Wagered: $56.00
Returned: $84.30

Didn't find any real intriguing longshots at the Spa today...

Best Bet - Race 7: 9 Royal Dancer 4/1
Speedball shortens up today which I usually don't necessarily like on turf as much as dirt but the last couple efforts make her very tough in here to me. In particular last out where she ran the rest of the speeds into the ground (check their beyer patterns) and really fought on gamely at a tough distance against Dream Central and Robyn and Eli. I know the latter disappointed since but DC came back running and the R&E race is too bad to be true so thinking she's just totally lost form or something went wrong. I think she's just better than those who have had turf tries in here so if Tough Street doesn't really take to the grass I think she'll prevail.

Best Value - Race 10: 3 Star Devine 9/2
Seems a notch below the best in here perhaps but lightly raced with upside and love the tactical speed which should ensure a good trip sitting just behind what should be a solid pace (I know). Needs to find a little more in the lane but think she can, especially on the cutback to 5.5 where I thought her return off a long layoff at Keeneland in April was excellent. Hoping third off the bench she's ready for a move forward today.

Good luck

[theguarantee]

Saturday, 7/30

Best Bet - Race 9: 2 Epicenter 3/2
I never usually take such a small price but I think with the presence of both of the Chad runners that this is one of those rare occasions that the horse is still an overlay. I've just always thought he is the class of this bunch and I believe the Preakness a lot of different things conspired against him. Fully expect him to have enjoyed the freshening and get back to proving that he's the best of these today. Appears to be training like he's back to his A game.

Best Value - Race 10: 10 Colosseo 6/1
Obviously this is a total guess but I want to see Capensis do it again today especially given the post. So I started looking and kept poking holes in everyone else. Colosseo led St Mark's Basilica last year and was only beaten under two lengths. So we know there is some ability there. Why this horse is now with Wayne Catalano, what happened after that start or why they targeted this race at Saratoga. I'm going to take the presence of lasix and Rosario today as a positive though...kind of a total guess but feels like a decent spot for one...especially as this card today didn't do a ton for me as most races I either liked the favorites or had no clue.

Good luck.

[moses]

After Day 11.
Total wagered: $104.00
Total returned: $93.30
Record 24 4-6-4

Sunday July 31.
Best bet: Race 8 - #1 L’Imperator 6/1 (Brown/Franco)
Best value: Race 7 - #3 Sanctuary City 10/1 (Ferraro/Carmouche)

[theguarantee]

Sunday, July 31st
Best Bet - Race 5: 9 Baby Blythe 9/2
Best Value - Race 10: 7 Sharp Sensation 6/1

[moses]

After Day 14.
Total wagered: $112.00
Total returned: $93.30

I've whiffed in my last couple races. I didn't have much time to look at the PPs last week and it showed. Kicking myself for not picking Gunite as I really hated the favorite in that race and ended up betting Gunite...but it happens. I was a bit preoccupied. Hopefully I can rebound and pick a few winners this week.

Best bet: Race 7 - #3 - Tiergan 8/5 ML, Giangiulio/I.Ortiz. I guess we will see what price Tiergan goes off at. With Irad aboard, I'm not optimistic but I'll take 8/5 as I think he's got a very strong chance to win this. I may look a little closer at the card in the next hour or two and see if there is a better price to put here...but if not, I'll roll with Tiergan.

Best value: Race 5 - #4 Triumphant Return 10/1 ML, Barker/Castellano. Castellano has been hot so I've been taking a closer look at all of his mounts. This one interests me quite a bit as the works are solid, the pedigree screams turf to me, and the winner from his start here last year went on to win the Swale earlier this year. I'm not going to count that race much against him and if he's 10/1 or above, why not? Sosua Summer for Mott hasn't won in 8 tries and his only time sprinting lost a lot of ground in the stretch. Of course, the winner of that race went on to win 4 consecutive stakes races including the Quick Call two weeks ago. The runner up won next time out and followed it up with an allowance win. But still, he's not for me. Java Buzz draws Prat again and may be the horse to beat...but I just don't like him at a short price.

[Dahoss]

It’ll be interesting to see what Triumphant Return goes off at. EVERYONE (including me) seemingly likes that horse.

[moses]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

It’ll be interesting to see what Triumphant Return goes off at. EVERYONE (including me) seemingly likes that horse.

Shoot. Still, I can’t imagine under 6/1 with the two ML favorites. I guess we’ll see.

[knickslions2]

Originally Posted by moses

Shoot. Still, I can’t imagine under 6/1 with the two ML favorites. I guess we’ll see.

That horse stands out on form and everyone likes it. Usually that’s the kiss of death lol. I think the 6 could be live and is a nice prices. Good luck.

[moses]

Originally Posted by knickslions2

That horse stands out on form and everyone likes it. Usually that’s the kiss of death lol. I think the 6 could be live and is a nice prices. Good luck.

Thanks. And yea, you’re right. I hate being on a horse that everyone loves.

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

After Day 14.
Total wagered: $112.00
Total returned: $93.30

I've whiffed in my last couple races. I didn't have much time to look at the PPs last week and it showed. Kicking myself for not picking Gunite as I really hated the favorite in that race and ended up betting Gunite...but it happens. I was a bit preoccupied. Hopefully I can rebound and pick a few winners this week.

Best bet: Race 7 - #3 - Tiergan 8/5 ML, Giangiulio/I.Ortiz. I guess we will see what price Tiergan goes off at. With Irad aboard, I'm not optimistic but I'll take 8/5 as I think he's got a very strong chance to win this. I may look a little closer at the card in the next hour or two and see if there is a better price to put here...but if not, I'll roll with Tiergan.

Best value: Race 5 - #4 Triumphant Return 10/1 ML, Barker/Castellano. Castellano has been hot so I've been taking a closer look at all of his mounts. This one interests me quite a bit as the works are solid, the pedigree screams turf to me, and the winner from his start here last year went on to win the Swale earlier this year. I'm not going to count that race much against him and if he's 10/1 or above, why not? Sosua Summer for Mott hasn't won in 8 tries and his only time sprinting lost a lot of ground in the stretch. Of course, the winner of that race went on to win 4 consecutive stakes races including the Quick Call two weeks ago. The runner up won next time out and followed it up with an allowance win. But still, he's not for me. Java Buzz draws Prat again and may be the horse to beat...but I just don't like him at a short price.

I'm going to mix it up because I think I found another price horse worth playing. So swap out Tiergan (who I do think should win) and add in:

Race 9 - #5 Movie Moxy 12/1 ML, Weaver/J.Ortiz. I don't think this horse was running the right races. She was in dirt sprints when I think she is a router. Her lone try around two turns, she was put away by two pretty nice horses in Spice is Nice and Market Rumor. What impressed me that day is that Maedean looked like she was going to swallow Movie Moxy up in the stretch but Movie Moxy fought to hold on for show. After several dirt sprints, she now moves back to a route, this time on the grass. It'll be her first time on the grass so that's a big question mark. Physically, she looks like a turf router to me -- but I'm no expert so take that with a grain of salt. Her pedigree suggests she might like turf, being a Street Sense filly out of a Bernardini mare. The reason I initially didn't land on her is that the #1 Rocky Sky does seem imposing as she had a nightmare trip last time out and still ran fairly well, and she's raced against much tougher than the ones in here. I generally won't bet against a horse like her...but I could easily see the entry going off at 2/5 and I'm willing to go against her at that price.