Two at Toga - 2021 edition

[moses]

I'm going to be on the road the next couple days so I'll post my picks today with an alternate listed in case the turf races are taken off or in case of scratches. I like a few of the prices on Wednesday. I'm probably getting a little too creative with my picks on Thursday but I guess we'll see.

Wednesday August 4th

Best bet: Race 8 - #4 Casual, 9/2 ML (Asmussen/Santana).
Alternate: Race 4 - #4 Coffee Bar, 6/5 ML (Pletcher/I.Ortiz).

Best value: Race 10 - #2 Be Up, 8/1 ML (Thomas/Saez).
Alternate: Race 6 - #1 Towering Orbit, 8/1 ML (Baker/Rosario).
2nd Alternate: Race 7 - #11 Christopher, 10/1 ML (Stephens/Davis).


Thursday August 5th

Best bet: Race 7 - #5 Mr. Kringle, 6/1 ML (Terranova/Lezcano).
Alternate: Race 10 - #9 Escapewithfriends, 7/2 ML (Weaver/Cancel).

Best value: Race 4 - #7 Chulainn, 8/1 ML (Motion/Rosario).
Alternate: Race 8 - #7 Joey Loose Lips, 15/1 ML (Giangulio/Vargas).
2nd alternate: Race 3 - #5 Full Salute, 30/1 ML (Tournas/Harkie). (Note: This may be the first and only time I put Heman Harkie in my picks. I'm just not sold on any of the horses in this race and am intrigued with the possibility that this horse jumps out to the lead early and they aren't able to catch him late.)

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

I'm going to be on the road the next couple days so I'll post my picks today with an alternate listed in case the turf races are taken off or in case of scratches. I like a few of the prices on Wednesday. I'm probably getting a little too creative with my picks on Thursday but I guess we'll see.

Wednesday August 4th

Best bet: Race 8 - #4 Casual, 9/2 ML (Asmussen/Santana).
Alternate: Race 4 - #4 Coffee Bar, 6/5 ML (Pletcher/I.Ortiz).

Best value: Race 10 - #2 Be Up, 8/1 ML (Thomas/Saez).
Alternate: Race 6 - #1 Towering Orbit, 8/1 ML (Baker/Rosario).
2nd Alternate: Race 7 - #11 Christopher, 10/1 ML (Stephens/Davis).


Thursday August 5th

Best bet: Race 7 - #5 Mr. Kringle, 6/1 ML (Terranova/Lezcano).
Alternate: Race 10 - #9 Escapewithfriends, 7/2 ML (Weaver/Cancel).

Best value: Race 4 - #7 Chulainn, 8/1 ML (Motion/Rosario).
Alternate: Race 8 - #7 Joey Loose Lips, 15/1 ML (Giangulio/Vargas).
2nd alternate: Race 3 - #5 Full Salute, 30/1 ML (Tournas/Harkie). (Note: This may be the first and only time I put Heman Harkie in my picks. I'm just not sold on any of the horses in this race and am intrigued with the possibility that this horse jumps out to the lead early and they aren't able to catch him late.)

So checking in and my first alternate and second alternate for best value win. One at 7/2 and the other at 10/1. Of course I’ve been busy and didn’t bet either race. Major face palm.

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

So checking in and my first alternate and second alternate for best value win. One at 7/2 and the other at 10/1. Of course I’ve been busy and didn’t bet either race. Major face palm.

Well Casual finished 3rd, just getting edged by Aunt Kat. I don’t even remember what Be Up did but that was a big disappointment given how my alternates performed. And Joey Loose Lips with a nice run for place. I thought he had that one. My actual best value pick…did not run as well.

Luckily I got to hit today with Mr. Kringle and he returned $15.30 for win and place.

Wagered: $96.00
Returned: $54.90

[moses]

Friday August 6th

Best bet: Race 8 - #4 Art Collector, 3/1 ML (Mott/Saez)
Alternate: Race 9 - #7 Imprimis, 3/1 ML (Orseno/I.Ortiz)

Best value: Race 6 - #5 Value Engineering, 9/2 ML (Brown/Castellano)
Alternate: Race 10 - #7 The Big Grey, 12/1 ML (J.Englehart/J.Ortiz)

[moses]

Saturday August 7th

Best bet: Race 8 - #4 Obligatory 4/1 ML (Mott/J.Ortiz)
Alternate: Race 6 - #5 Flavius 3/1 ML (Brown/Prat)
Alternate #2: Race 7 - #3 War Like Goddess 8/5 ML (Mott/Leparoux)

Best value: Race 12 - #10 Bay Storm 6/1 ML (Thomas/Franco)
Alternate: Race 9 - #11 King Fury 10/1 ML (McPeek/J.Ortiz) (I am probably a sucker for this pick but just have a hunch here.)
Alternate #2: Race 10 - #1 By My Standards 10/1 ML (Calhoun/G.Saez) (Note: He is the longest shot on the board but I think based on last race and the recent works that he is ready to run a big race.)

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Well Casual finished 3rd, just getting edged by Aunt Kat. I don’t even remember what Be Up did but that was a big disappointment given how my alternates performed. And Joey Loose Lips with a nice run for place. I thought he had that one. My actual best value pick…did not run as well.

Luckily I got to hit today with Mr. Kringle and he returned $15.30 for win and place.

Wagered: $96.00
Returned: $54.90

With Art Collector’s win I’m now at:

Wagered: $104.00
Returned: $64.30

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

With Art Collector’s win I’m now at:

Wagered: $104.00
Returned: $64.30

I completely whiffed yesterday so I’m now at:

Wagered: $112.00
Returned: $64.30

Best bet: Race 8 - #4 Shesawildjoker, 10/1 ML (Donk/Velazquez)

Best value: Race 6 - #2 Free Chickens, 10/1 ML (Abreu/Saez)

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

I completely whiffed yesterday so I’m now at:

Wagered: $112.00
Returned: $64.30

Best bet: Race 8 - #4 Shesawildjoker, 10/1 ML (Donk/Velazquez)

Best value: Race 6 - #2 Free Chickens, 10/1 ML (Abreu/Saez)

Another shutout so now at $120.00 wagered and only $64.30 returned.

Wednesday August 11th

I'm not crazy about too many horses on this card. I think Gotta Go Mo in the 4th is probably the most likely winner today and considered making him my "best bet" but he's 7/5 so I'm going to take a shot with Lucky Brody who gets some class relief and faces off against a duo of favorites with possible distance limitations. I'm not totally against ML favorite Town Avenger in the 7th. She looks like a pretty talented filly but I suspect she may get bet down even more than that. Casse has been ice cold at Saratoga...but Earth Strike had some trouble last time out and still finished well and I think will appreciate the added distance. Plus Rosario is back aboard.

Best bet: Race 5 - #6 Lucky Brody, 10/1 ML (Noda/Franco).

Best value: Race 7 - #4 Earth Strike, 8/1 ML (Casse/Rosario).

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Another shutout so now at $120.00 wagered and only $64.30 returned.

Wednesday August 11th

I'm not crazy about too many horses on this card. I think Gotta Go Mo in the 4th is probably the most likely winner today and considered making him my "best bet" but he's 7/5 so I'm going to take a shot with Lucky Brody who gets some class relief and faces off against a duo of favorites with possible distance limitations. I'm not totally against ML favorite Town Avenger in the 7th. She looks like a pretty talented filly but I suspect she may get bet down even more than that. Casse has been ice cold at Saratoga...but Earth Strike had some trouble last time out and still finished well and I think will appreciate the added distance. Plus Rosario is back aboard.

Best bet: Race 5 - #6 Lucky Brody, 10/1 ML (Noda/Franco).

Best value: Race 7 - #4 Earth Strike, 8/1 ML (Casse/Rosario).

Wagered: $128.00
Returned: $64.30


Well I was right to bet against the favorites in race 5…but landed on the wrong longshot. Earth Strike ran alright but finished a distant 4th. Going to go with a pair of Pletcher horses today, though I wouldn’t be shocked if we don’t get the ML prices on them.

Best bet: Race 4 - #1 Chocolate Cookie, 3/1 ML (Pletcher/I.Ortiz)

Best value: Race 10 - #12 Abaan, 6/1 ML (Pletcher/Saez)