Two at Toga - 2021 edition

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by jms62

I would say that would be "Lock of Day" and you should be hitting that at least 50% of the time and even at that rate you will lose money. "Best Bets" odds often leak up in these types of threads as guys get underwater and try to get out for the meet. If you can hit that "Lock of Day" at 50% and use it to key a Double or Exacta then you can build a successful strategy. Using in Tri's Pick3-4-5 is much harder though IMO as you have more places to stumble.

I’d respond to this obvious shot at me but the last time we went back and forth you got so mad that you wanted to sue me

[jms62]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

I’d respond to this obvious shot at me but the last time we went back and forth you got so mad that you wanted to sue me

Not in the least. I think your best bet picks are right in the sweet spot of win percentage vs price. I'm so anti someone calling the most obvious winner on the card the best bet. Years ago on this board I got into one of those best bet, price contests and was destroying the guy until he hit a 60-1 "Best Bet". It wasn't a shot at you. His "best Bet" ML went up like 8 standard deviations during the later stages.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by jms62

Not in the least. I think your best bet picks are right in the sweet spot of win percentage vs price. I'm so anti someone calling the most obvious winner on the card the best bet. Years ago on this board I got into one of those best bet, price contests and was destroying the guy until he hit a 60-1 "Best Bet". It wasn't a shot at you. His "best Bet" ML went up like 8 standard deviations during the later stages.

I’m with you there. Anyone can identify most likely. My goal is to identify a horse that I’m betting that I think is the best bet in terms of likelihood of winning and value. Not a perfect science of course.