The Weak and Confused: Charlatan Didn’t Win a Bloated Race in Saudi Arabia

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Rollo, I have a question for you. I know how you feel about Charlatan. Assuming he can stay healthy all year (and I know that is not the strongest assumption), who are the horses that you see as being above him in this country running route races on dirt? The first horse that will come to many minds is Maxffield but he's just as iffy, if not moreso, from a physical perspective as Charlatan. Many times, your success is not defined strictly by how good you are but also by how good your competition is,

Again, that's the irony of the results of the Saudi Cup. There is basically little competition for Charlatan and yet he still found a way to lose the race. I'm not sure why the people that previously anointed him as the best older horse in America despite not ever having won a two-turn race and seemed to be salivating that he'd get to run in a $20 million race around one-turn are suddenly changing gear and talking about how "heroic" and "game" the horse was Saturday. He should have won by 10 lengths against that field if we presume that Knicks Go was always going to fold in a duel (as many predicted).

The fact that Charlatan himself couldn't ultimately handle pace pressure or relax in the early stages of the race pretty much exposes him as far as routes go despite the paltry competition on the scene. Maybe those limitations have to do with Mike Smith's awful race riding, but until proven otherwise he is still simply a superior sprinter.

Do you think Charlatan is going to improve when he goes two turns?
Do you think Charlatan is going to improve when he goes 10 furlongs?

The only way he will win a race like the Gold Cup or the Pacific Classic is if we get the usual paceless, small fields we've seen in CA for decades now.

In a field of even modest quality with a fair pace scenario, I could fathom horses like Code of Honor or Express Train running this horse down, never mind Maxfield, at 10 furlongs. There's also Performer and Mystic Guide waiting in the wings that are better suited to routes. Silver State and The Sound have won 3 straight allowances a piece and have enough speed to make Charlatan work early.

But don't hold your breath for any of this to get settled on the racetrack. Unless Baffert goes for the Met Mile (which would suggest he has no plans to run the horse 10 furlongs) I would fully expect Charlatan to remain in the friendly confines of facing Tizamagician, Extra Hope, Kiss Today Goodbye, and Independence Hall, probably in the San Diego and Pacific Classic.

And if Charlatan does happen to make it to the BC Classic, it would be presumptuous to think Mishriff wouldn't point for the race himself, especially if he gives a good account of himself in the Dubai World Cup. The horse clearly handles the dirt (Baffert even conveniently red-boarded that Mishriff was always the horse to beat) and is in the barn of a trainer who formerly trained in CA and won the BC Classic with this horse's similarly Euro-based grandsire...