Two at Toga

[moses]

I know I had him as my best bet, but even money on the #6 there was pretty ridiculous. He picked up some ground late but it looks like he is not fast enough for 5.5 furlongs.

[moses]

I'm brutally bad at this.

[moses]

Best bets: $32.00 wagered. $11.20 returned.
Longshots: $32.00 wagered. $18.80 returned.
Total: $64.00 wagered. $30.00 returned.

After a nice start, I haven't hit anything since Baffert's Tale of the Union ran 2nd over a week ago now. Yikes!

Best bet. Race 3 - #5 French Reef (4/5 ML). Considering the fact that I haven't picked a single top 2 finisher in a week, I'm going to just go with the horse that I think has the best chance of running top 2 tomorrow. Normally, I'd try to search for a little value...but I've got to do something to end this losing streak. This one is very fast and I don't think the others will be able to keep up. But you may want to bet a few dollars against him, just in case my streak continues.

Longshot. Race 7 - #2 Plot the Dots (8/1 ML). Last time out, Trombetta sent this one into stakes company for his turf debut. Bumped a couple times at the start, he was wide throughout and seemed to run out of gas toward the end of the race. But he'll now get much needed class relief and Rosario can hopefully work out a nice trip for him to close into what looks like a pretty honest pace. He's got that tall, leggy frame that we often see from Uncle Mo progeny and I always like to see that for turf routers. Given that the connections thought highly enough of him to throw him into a stakes race, I think he could be dangerous here.

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Best bets: $32.00 wagered. $11.20 returned.
Longshots: $32.00 wagered. $18.80 returned.
Total: $64.00 wagered. $30.00 returned.

After a nice start, I haven't hit anything since Baffert's Tale of the Union ran 2nd over a week ago now. Yikes!

Best bet. Race 3 - #5 French Reef (4/5 ML). Considering the fact that I haven't picked a single top 2 finisher in a week, I'm going to just go with the horse that I think has the best chance of running top 2 tomorrow. Normally, I'd try to search for a little value...but I've got to do something to end this losing streak. This one is very fast and I don't think the others will be able to keep up. But you may want to bet a few dollars against him, just in case my streak continues.

Longshot. Race 7 - #2 Plot the Dots (8/1 ML). Last time out, Trombetta sent this one into stakes company for his turf debut. Bumped a couple times at the start, he was wide throughout and seemed to run out of gas toward the end of the race. But he'll now get much needed class relief and Rosario can hopefully work out a nice trip for him to close into what looks like a pretty honest pace. He's got that tall, leggy frame that we often see from Uncle Mo progeny and I always like to see that for turf routers. Given that the connections thought highly enough of him to throw him into a stakes race, I think he could be dangerous here.

Actually felt pretty good about these picks so it figures that 1-3-5-7 are off the turf. Without comment, I'll switch my picks to:

Best bet. Race 5 - #11 Likeable (4/1 ML)
Longshot. Race 10 - #2 Kid Chocolate (15/1 ML)

[theguarantee]

^I liked Plot the Dots on the turf too -- certainly has a shot on the dirt I guess but now I much prefer others.

Wagered: $40.00
Returned: $41.70

Best Bet: Race 9 #6 Uni - Hesitated to make best bet because I'm unsure on the price...I think it's really hard to figure out how the three main Chad horses will be bet plus Halladay is an X factor...ultimately based on this exercise I'll trust Aragona's ML as he is much better than I at predicting prices and at 3/1 I'll be excited to bet. I just think she is hands down the best horse in the race and while I wish Joel was aboard we are still in great hands...if she's just not the same at 6 years old then oh well but I think the last can be excused and the most recent work heads up with Newspaperofrecord to me says she's all systems go today.
Best Value: Race 8 #5 Winston's Chance - The scratch of It's All Relevant seems to have most (reasonably enough btw) defaulting the race to Blewitt...I get it but I wonder if Winston's Chance isn't the most likely to benefit from that scratch and at a bit better price. I absolutely detest Sea Foam off as basic a trip as can be received and I don't totally trust Blewitt. I actually think Legit is dangerous but being clumped into the entry/a leap of faith makes that one unbettable. Growth Engine is certainly dangerous but I'm confused (and maybe overthinking) the ship to Monmouth in the last/not thrilled with that field. That all leads me to my choice...if you can draw a line through the first off the layoff may well just be an improved/nice horse for Donk. Seems to appreciate the track/distance and with a favorable pace scenario today might be able to get it done and I certainly like to at least hit the board for exotics.

Good luck everyone.

[moses]

Likeable lost by about a head and Kid Chocolate ran a great race but came up a bit short, finishing 3rd.

Best bets: $36.00 wagered. $15.50 returned.
Longshots: $36.00 wagered. $18.80 returned.
Total: $72.00 wagered. $34.30 returned.

Sunday, August 23rd.

Best bet. Race 3 - #6 Jade Empress (4/1 ML). I got burnt last time with a Mott first time starter when Officiating had trouble at the start but his gallop out showed that I was right to think highly of him and he's a horse to look out for next time. I feel strongly about Mott's first time starter Jade Empress here. The most recent two workouts are exactly what I like to see with a 2YO starting for the first time. She put in a 5 furlong workout in just over 1:00 and came back with a 4 furlong workout in 47 flat. She will likely be the 4th choice in here but I have her as the horse to beat.

Longshot. Race 6 - #9 Keypit (30/1 ML). Outside of the 6/5 ML favorite #1 Towering Gaze, this race looks completely devoid of early pace except for the #9 Keypit. Keypit has a couple of decent turf sprints back as a 2YO that I'm looking at to justify this pick. On top of that, I'll excuse her for the 1st off the layoff and note that she got squeezed at the start last time out, negating the one thing she has going for her - early speed. With the outside post, she should get a cleaner break this time and may be the one to catch. It doesn't hurt that Albertrani posts much better-than-average numbers with horses 3rd of the layoff and mayyyyybe this one is able to jump out to a lead and never look back.

[theguarantee]

Wagered $48.00
Returned $41.70

Tough card today...

Best Bet: Race 8 #6 Mean Mary - I was admittedly slow to coming around to thinking she could be this type going all the way back to the promising maiden win...while she completely controlled the pace in the NY however she really won me over watching her power home in the stretch. Definitely an acid test but I think she will be tough to beat in here unless Sistercharlie re-finds her best form.

Best Value: Race 7 #6 Pete's Play Call - loved the last effort, has to hold form off the trainer change but cutting back to 6 should help and Luis should be able to map out a nice trip.

GL.