David Aragona does a wonderful job in making the NYRA morning line, but he does have several challenges at Saratoga, especially on big race weekends. There are many more patrons on track, not all of whom are dyed in the wool handicappers. They may be more motivated to wager by humorous names or jockeys or trainers than just speed figures. Based on that, his ML can sometimes miss the mark by quite a lot. Shekky Shebaz was one case in point. It's also possible that fans saw "Rice" as the trainer and noticed that Linda Rice is a leading NY trainer, neglecting to notice that the owner/trainer was Adam Rice and his horse was being shipped from Presque Isle.
Sunday's Saratoga Special interviewed the connections of this winner and learned from Adam's mother that when he was a kid he used to watch The Fresh Prince of Bel Air - in one episode the Will Smith character told someone his name was "Shekky, Shekky Shebaz." Years later, the name reappeared in equine form.
Those major misses of the ML work both ways. The winner of yesterday's finale was 12-1 in the ML; it paid $81 to win. Tote watchers can profit from these differentials. Unfortunately, our ROI doesn't let us do that.
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07-29-2019, 01:34 PM
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