2019 Derby Trail: Bourbon War brings Belmont field to 10

[jms62]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Vekoma was much the best. He was also 7:5.

Much the best? He was rumbling Stumbling home. I think Win Win Win ran the best race there and I think would have taken him given one more furlong. Did I not see something?

[Alabama Stakes]

Lotta late money on Vekoma . 9/2...7/2 ......next thing you know he’s 7/5.

[moses]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

Lotta late money on Vekoma . 9/2...7/2 ......next thing you know he’s 7/5.

Tell me about it. I debated on putting a win bet on him. Saw him at 9-2 and couldn’t resist. I’ll take the win, just wish it was at better odds.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by moses

Tell me about it. I debated on putting a win bet on him. Saw him at 9-2 and couldn’t resist. I’ll take the win, just wish it was at better odds.

He was a huge favorite in the multis. He was always going to be 8:5 or lower. The late money is almost always 99% predictable by looking at multis.

[moses]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

He was a huge favorite in the multis. He was always going to be 8:5 or lower. The late money is almost always 99% predictable by looking at multis.

Yeah, I should have known it was too good to be true. I’ll still take it.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by jms62

Much the best? He was rumbling Stumbling home. I think Win Win Win ran the best race there and I think would have taken him given one more furlong. Did I not see something?

Vekoma has a weird stride ( to say the least ). He also likely doesn't want 9F. However, he was right on top of a fast pace and won comfortably. Win Win Win ran the best race? How? He was picking up pieces in a race that fell apart. This was a TERRIBLE field and under ideal circumstances he barely got second.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Vekoma has a weird stride ( to say the least ). He also likely doesn't want 9F. However, he was right on top of a fast pace and won comfortably. Win Win Win ran the best race? How? He was picking up pieces in a race that fell apart. This was a TERRIBLE field and under ideal circumstances he barely got second.

I thought he was closing. To me it looked like Vekoma went from the 1 to 4 path in the stretch. Both he and Somelikeithotbrown looked to be going sideways. Crazy.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by jms62

I thought he was closing. To me it looked like Vekoma went from the 1 to 4 path in the stretch. Both he and Somelikeithotbrown looked to be going sideways. Crazy.

He was steadied around the three eighths while rallying, but to me he had a lot go right in a bad race. I mean, he ran down Signalman. He might be third in the Matt Wynn.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

He was steadied around the three eighths while rallying, but to me he had a lot go right in a bad race. I mean, he ran down Signalman. He might be third in the Matt Wynn.

I think we both agree no Derby winner coming out of that race. Still wide open. I like what I saw in Roadster BUT he really worked Hard today.

[Alabama Stakes]

Originally Posted by jms62

I think we both agree no Derby winner coming out of that race. Still wide open. I like what I saw in Roadster BUT he really worked Hard today.

He’s a three year old in April, he’s supposed to be working hard for everything.

Is everyone who has enough points gonna go to the derby ? Looks like Anothertwistafate has to run in the Lexington to get more points.

[Kasept]

AR DERBY

Galilean (Flavien Prat)
Gray Attempt (Stewart Elliott)
Improbable (Jose Ortiz)
Long Range Toddy (Jon Court)
Omaha Beach (Mike Smith)
One Flew South (Calvin Borel)
Six Shooter (David Cohen)
Country House (Mott)

Roiland (Amoss)
Jersey Agenda (Asmussen)
Laughing Fox (Asmussen)
Tikhvin Flew (Asmussen)

[moses]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

He’s a three year old in April, he’s supposed to be working hard for everything.

Is everyone who has enough points gonna go to the derby ? Looks like Anothertwistafate has to run in the Lexington to get more points.

Originally Gray Magician was most likely out but I’ve read that they’re considering running. I haven’t heard anything about any other horses not running.

As it is now, you’ve got a number of horses out of the top 18 that may be running on Saturday:

Omaha Beach
Improbable
Country House
Galilean
Gray Attempt
Six Shooter
Jersey Agenda
Last Judgment
Anothertwistafate
Sueno
Mucho Gusto

Plus some others.

Those horses with 40 points who thought they were probably safe for the derby may end up on the outside looking in.

[moses]

Originally Posted by jms62

Much the best? He was rumbling Stumbling home. I think Win Win Win ran the best race there and I think would have taken him given one more furlong. Did I not see something?

Rumbling and stumbling and still won by 3 1/2 lengths.

[Kasept]

Jon White's Projected Kentucky Derby Odds

As discussed yesterday; Pace quadrants with NTamm on Friday..

9-2 Omaha Beach
5-1 Roadster
6-1 Game Winner
6-1 Tacitus

10-1 Improbable
12-1 Maximum Security
15-1 Code of Honor
15-1 Vekoma

20-1 By My Standards
20-1 Tax
20-1 War of Will
20-1 Win Win Win

30-1 Country House
30-1 Cutting Humor
30-1 Haikal
30-1 Long Range Toddy
30-1 Plus Que Parfait
30-1 Spinoff

50-1 Gray Magician
50-1 Master Fencer

[moses]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Jon White's Projected Kentucky Derby Odds

As discussed yesterday; Pace quadrants with NTamm on Friday..

9-2 Omaha Beach
5-1 Roadster
6-1 Game Winner
6-1 Tacitus

10-1 Improbable
12-1 Maximum Security
15-1 Code of Honor
15-1 Vekoma

20-1 By My Standards
20-1 Tax
20-1 War of Will
20-1 Win Win Win

30-1 Country House
30-1 Cutting Humor
30-1 Haikal
30-1 Long Range Toddy
30-1 Plus Que Parfait
30-1 Spinoff

50-1 Gray Magician
50-1 Master Fencer

Interesting listening to Jon discuss his thinking for the lines. I could see Game Winner floating up a bit in price. Who is going to bet him at 6-1 at this point?

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by moses

Interesting listening to Jon discuss his thinking for the lines. I could see Game Winner floating up a bit in price. Who is going to bet him at 6-1 at this point?

I probably would. I still think he’s the best 3 year old and neither of his starts this year have discouraged that thought. I think Baffert had a plan to have him peak for the Derby and even though Roadster beat him in the SA Derby, he was 4 wide for a long time and made first move, while Roadster drafted and made the last move. He’s won over the Churchill surface and while I hope you’re right that he drifts up in price, 6-1 seems fair.

[cakes44]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

I probably would. I still think he’s the best 3 year old and neither of his starts this year have discouraged that thought. I think Baffert had a plan to have him peak for the Derby and even though Roadster beat him in the SA Derby, he was 4 wide for a long time and made first move, while Roadster drafted and made the last move. He’s won over the Churchill surface and while I hope you’re right that he drifts up in price, 6-1 seems fair.

Agreed. I'm on him at 6-1, so i'm definitely on him at anything higher.

[moses]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

I probably would. I still think he’s the best 3 year old and neither of his starts this year have discouraged that thought. I think Baffert had a plan to have him peak for the Derby and even though Roadster beat him in the SA Derby, he was 4 wide for a long time and made first move, while Roadster drafted and made the last move. He’s won over the Churchill surface and while I hope you’re right that he drifts up in price, 6-1 seems fair.

Originally Posted by cakes44

Agreed. I'm on him at 6-1, so i'm definitely on him at anything higher.

I like Game Winner and think he is the most likely of the horses to hit the board. But to win? As consistent as he’s been, he hasn’t taken that next step...yet. I also suspect the California horses are a little overrated this year.

Plus, we saw his odds rise to 7-1 in Pool 4, and that was before Omaha Beach won the Arkansas Derby. So I think we see his odds end up above 6-1.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

I probably would. I still think he’s the best 3 year old and neither of his starts this year have discouraged that thought. I think Baffert had a plan to have him peak for the Derby and even though Roadster beat him in the SA Derby, he was 4 wide for a long time and made first move, while Roadster drafted and made the last move. He’s won over the Churchill surface and while I hope you’re right that he drifts up in price, 6-1 seems fair.

Agree, and I also would.

[Alabama Stakes]

Is Wright considering Jose Ortiz or Joel Rosario for Anothertwistafate?