I’m guessing Justify is done.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by cakes44

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-rac...-plans-on-hold

I think you are right. You can't take a chance with a horse this valuable. I would have made the chances of him being retired about 60-70% after they found the filling. Now that the filling has come back, I would make the chances about 95%.

[freddymo]

I hope he races again. I hope they don't "soft tissue" us and tell us it is in the best interest of the horse. Let them say we can't afford to miss the business opportunity that a TC winner affords the ownership.

[FATPIANO]

He was done as soon as he passed the finish line in the Belmont. He will never race again..period the end

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by FATPIANO

He was done as soon as he passed the finish line in the Belmont. He will never race again..period the end

That is completely untrue. He would have definitely run again. American Pharaoh ran again.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

That is completely untrue. He would have definitely run again. American Pharaoh ran again.

Horrible analogy.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Horrible analogy.

Huh? Unless I misunderstood his point, Fatpiano was saying that the horse was automatically retired right when he won the TC, because a TC winner is too valuable to race. My point was that that is not true at all. We just had a TC winner a couple of years ago and he continued running. But even aside from that, it would be very rare for a sound horse who is doing well to be retired in the middle of the year, even after winning the TC. Guys don't retire sound horses on winning streaks in the middle of the year. It doesn't happen. I can't ever remember it happening. Horses often retire in the middle of the year if they get hurt, but not if they're sound and running well. There is a fallacy out there that owners make up injuries so they have an excuse to retire their horse. It is a complete myth. An owner doesn't feel like he has to make an excuse to retire his horse. It's a business decision. Horses are retired all the time (at the end of the year). Nobody feels guilty about retiring a horse.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

Huh? Unless I misunderstood his point, Fatpiano was saying that the horse was automatically retired right when he won the TC, because a TC winner is too valuable to race. My point was that that is not true at all. We just had a TC winner a couple of years ago and he continued running. But even aside from that, it would be very rare for a sound horse who is doing well to be retired in the middle of the year, even after winning the TC. Guys don't retire sound horses on winning streaks in the middle of the year. It doesn't happen. I can't ever remember it happening. Horses often retire in the middle of the year if they get hurt, but not if they're sound and running well. There is a fallacy out there that owners make up injuries so they have an excuse to retire their horse. It is a complete myth. An owner doesn't feel like he has to make an excuse to retire his horse. It's a business decision. Horses are retired all the time (at the end of the year). Nobody feels guilty about retiring a horse.

You sure extrapolated a lot from one sentence from Fatpiano. I am guessing Justify's stud deal is a lot different ( both in dollars and incentives ) than American Pharoah's deal. Zayat sold Pharoah's stud rights during his 2YO year. He got substantial kickers, as I'm sure you must know, for winning races like the Haskell, Travers, and BC Classic. This likely played a role in his continued racing...which is why I believe the situations are not analogous.

Then again, the biggest idiot on this board agreed with you, so there's that too.

[Alabama Stakes]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

That is completely untrue. He would have definitely run again. American Pharaoh ran again.

Good analogy. American Pharoah continued to do well and great owners brought him to Saratoga giving the fans a real treat, even though he got picked up. If Justify continued to do well, they would have done the same. To me if you have a hoss that good, why would you not keep running. Winning doesn’t get old.

[Dawgswin]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

Good analogy. American Pharoah continued to do well and great owners brought him to Saratoga giving the fans a real treat, even though he got picked up. If Justify continued to do well, they would have done the same. To me if you have a hoss that good, why would you not keep running. Winning doesn’t get old.

I’ll go one better, it ain’t even an analogy.

[casp0555]

I cant wait until Saratoga kicks off

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by freddymo

I hope he races again. I hope they don't "soft tissue" us and tell us it is in the best interest of the horse. Let them say we can't afford to miss the business opportunity that a TC winner affords the ownership.

It will probably be the type of issue that requires 2 months off. It would take another 3 months of training before he would be ready to run. So he wouldn't be ready to run until December. He would miss all the big races this year.

[moses]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

It will probably be the type of issue that requires 2 months off. It would take another 3 months of training before he would be ready to run. So he wouldn't be ready to run until December. He would miss all the big races this year.

If he runs again then, it’ll be the Pegasus World Cup. But I don’t think he runs again.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

It will probably be the type of issue that requires 2 months off. It would take another 3 months of training before he would be ready to run. So he wouldn't be ready to run until December. He would miss all the big races this year.

The armchair veterinarian has logged on.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

The armchair veterinarian has logged on.

In general, that is how long these types of things usually take. There is always a chance that it could be something worse that could take more time. It could possibly be something that requires a little less time. But in general, I've seen a lot of horses over the years who had a little filling in an ankle. We get the vet to do all the diagnostic testing. And in 90% of the cases, the vet recommends 1-3 months off.

[FATPIANO]

AP was not an undefeated Triple Crown winner. Justify is, and there is no way they would take a chance and race him again. They want him to retire undefeated..he was done right after the Belmont..stick a fork in him. It was a nice short ride...

[Merlinsky]

Originally Posted by FATPIANO

AP was not an undefeated Triple Crown winner. Justify is, and there is no way they would take a chance and race him again. They want him to retire undefeated..he was done right after the Belmont..stick a fork in him. It was a nice short ride...

That is asinine. His being undefeated isn't that important as compared to AP anymore than not being undefeated hurt Secretariat. He's a massive specimen of a deceased, highly desirable sire. If he'd lost his first race, or continued on and lost the Travers or something, it wouldn't make a dent in what they're gonna charge for his fee. People want the second coming of Scat Daddy and they want it now (well, next spring). The China Horse Club wants to see their champ run and have more opportunities for their members to get to watch and be in the winner's circle. They probably get bonuses if he wins more too. Justify running is to the benefit of WinStar and CHC. Coolmore is probably the one who'd want to retire him.

AP was 2yo champ with a loss *and* missing the BCJ. He wasn't less valuable to anybody than Justify because of those losses. His value was more likely to come up against the fact that his sire was still alive and active and later that year his grandsire Empire Maker was brought back. Nobody said 'are you kidding? I won't pay that! He's not undefeated!' Getting mares to support past the first year or so means making sure people don't go 'hey why don't we go to PotN? He's proven.' Maybe deals get made, etc. that cut into the earned fees for AP.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by FATPIANO

AP was not an undefeated Triple Crown winner. Justify is, and there is no way they would take a chance and race him again. They want him to retire undefeated..he was done right after the Belmont..stick a fork in him. It was a nice short ride...

So what is your theory as to what has been going on? You think that this whole thing has been a ruse? They were afraid to admit he was retired, so they would train him for a while and then make up a story about an injury? There is not even a 1% chance of that. If he was retired after the Belmont, they would have announced it shortly after the decision was made. They would not have pretended he was going to run again and ship him to California to train him to fool people. That is beyond absurd.