7/29 (SAR): Vanderbilt (G1), Bwlg Grn, Jim Dandy, Amsterdam (G2's)

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Great job by Paul Reddam here with Pavel. This could be his worst entry since the oft-injured Square Eddie came off a one year layoff and broke the track record for 6.5f at Santa Anita in an allowance race. His next race came 3 weeks later across the country in the 9f Grade 1 Donn Handicap.

Some nimrod suggested the Jim Dandy should have been restricted into a match race between Always Dreaming and Cloud Computing and now that the entries are out, I tend to agree with him.

The least Reddam could have done was fake us out and cross-enter him in the Amsterdam.

Pavel was a head from beating both Classic winners, and the only match race among them was to see who could finish last.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Pavel was a head from beating both Classic winners, and the only match race among them was to see who could finish last.

I actually think he ran very credible all things given.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

I actually think he ran very credible all things given.

He absolutely did. He ran a better race than everyone but the winner IMO. But apparently you get killed for taking a shot with a talented horse--while the same people probably complain about short fields.

[King Glorious]

I could understand if there were actual good horses in the race to avoid but there weren't. I think if you have a 3yo with four legs, it's worth taking a shot against the "leaders" of this division. Old rules about the proper progressions have to be discarded. This is not the same game of the 70s, 80s, and 90s.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I could understand if there were actual good horses in the race to avoid but there weren't. I think if you have a 3yo with four legs, it's worth taking a shot against the "leaders" of this division. Old rules about the proper progressions have to be discarded. This is not the same game of the 70s, 80s, and 90s.

This is over-the-top. The equine physical apparatus has not changed in this timeframe. You will drive the sport into a complete nosedive once you "discard" the essential fact that the racehorse is a living, breathing animal. Never mind solidifying 4-5 horse fields.

Am I crazy, but are we supposed to be happy Pavel ran off-the-board (and almost beat two classic winners) simply because for about a furlong, he displayed the talent that was apparent in his previous race?

The race was a complete waste. It certainly didn't set him up for a big race in the Travers.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

This is over-the-top. The equine physical apparatus has not changed in this timeframe. You will drive the sport into a complete nosedive once you "discard" the essential fact that the racehorse is a living, breathing animal. Never mind solidifying 4-5 horse fields.

Am I crazy, but are we supposed to be happy Pavel ran off-the-board (and almost beat two classic winners) simply because for about a furlong, he displayed the talent that was apparent in his previous race?

The race was a complete waste. It certainly didn't set him up for a big race in the Travers.

I agree with this, seems like a the wrong plan with a good horse, and this is after he ran well. I appreciate the trainer/owner having the guts to take chances, which has worked in the past, but this was a little bit of a reach.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

This is over-the-top. The equine physical apparatus has not changed in this timeframe. You will drive the sport into a complete nosedive once you "discard" the essential fact that the racehorse is a living, breathing animal. Never mind solidifying 4-5 horse fields.

Am I crazy, but are we supposed to be happy Pavel ran off-the-board (and almost beat two classic winners) simply because for about a furlong, he displayed the talent that was apparent in his previous race?

The race was a complete waste. It certainly didn't set him up for a big race in the Travers.

My point was that if this was a nw1x race at the same distance on this same track and date, would you have a problem with it. I'm wondering if your issue was more with the conditions or with the supposed class of the race? If it was with the class, I'm saying there was no need to worry because the class wasn't really as classy as the level would have suggested. I think in many cases, where we would expect to see the old, logical progressions, it's wasted opportunity because the difference between the good and the bad is razor thin and getting smaller each year. With shorter and shorter careers, might as well throw them in deep early.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

My point was that if this was a nw1x race at the same distance on this same track and date, would you have a problem with it.

Not only class level, but distance, too. As I said earlier, I would have stomached a start in the Amsterdam (Coal Front was relatively untested himself).

I'm wondering if your issue was more with the conditions or with the supposed class of the race? If it was with the class, I'm saying there was no need to worry because the class wasn't really as classy as the level would have suggested.

You can disparage a Derby winner and a Preakness winner (never mind the eventual winner, who had Grade 1 form on turf), as seems to be the consensus following the race, but the fact of the matter is they held a ton over Pavel in terms of experience, stamina, shipping, etc. They were clearly better than a non-winners 1x race where logically Pavel should have landed after his debut.

Whether or not Pavel is ultimately superior to those horses, those seemingly insignificant details are important, not just for this race, but for races going forward.

I think in many cases, where we would expect to see the old, logical progressions, it's wasted opportunity because the difference between the good and the bad is razor thin and getting smaller each year.

This ignores the difference between experience and naivety, which is perennially on display in 2yo maiden special weights across the country.

With shorter and shorter careers, might as well throw them in deep early.

This is a fatalist's approach and results in a vicious circle.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

But apparently you get killed for taking a shot with a talented horse

Classic short-term over long-term thinking. How many horses went from breaking their maiden late in their 3yo year in their debut to winning a Grade 1 at 9f or more in their second start?

Did Pavel show signs of talent in the Jim Dandy? Sure. Was it all for naught? Of course. He ran like a horse that had never been two turns before and found wanting in the stretch, ultimately finishing off the board.

At best, if the plan was to see if he had any talent (did anyone who saw his maiden win need this?) it was a completely wasted effort. At worst, if he comes out of the race less than 100% (was his debut delayed for a physical issue?) the race may have ruined his career.

This is nothing new though for Reddam, who's proficiency at ruining careers has move into the realm of an art form.

--while the same people probably complain about short fields.

Classic short-term over long-term thinking. If Pavel's career is shortened in any way by blowing his wad in this race, then guess what, instead of the prospect a 4-horse Jim Dandy, there will be perhaps 10 or more races over the longterm that won't have Pavel in it.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Classic short-term over long-term thinking. How many horses went from breaking their maiden late in their 3yo year in their debut to winning a Grade 1 at 9f or more in their second start?

Did Pavel show signs of talent in the Jim Dandy? Sure. Was it all for naught? Of course. He ran like a horse that had never been two turns before and found wanting in the stretch, ultimately finishing off the board.

At best, if the plan was to see if he had any talent (did anyone who saw his maiden win need this?) it was a completely wasted effort. At worst, if he comes out of the race less than 100% (was his debut delayed for a physical issue?) the race may have ruined his career.

This is nothing new though for Reddam, who's proficiency at ruining careers has move into the realm of an art form.

Classic short-term over long-term thinking. If Pavel's career is shortened in any way by blowing his wad in this race, then guess what, instead of the prospect a 4-horse Jim Dandy, there will be perhaps 10 or more races over the longterm that won't have Pavel in it.

If, if, if. You're already calling the horse's career dead in order to justify a bad snarky opinion. They took a shot and he hardly disgraced himself. The game needs more owners willing to try something unorthodox, not fewer.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

If, if, if. You're already calling the horse's career dead in order to justify a bad snarky opinion. They took a shot and he hardly disgraced himself. The game needs more owners willing to try something unorthodox, not fewer.

What exactly was the "bad opinion"? That is was a dumb spot to enter the horse? He didn't hit the board in a 5-horse field. I don't need to predict that his long-term career is compromised in order to justify the original opinion. The actual results of the Jim Dandy are more than adequate.

Instead of witnessing an also-ran performance (however heroic or otherwise) in the Jim Dandy, we might have seen him crush an allowance race as a springboard to something like the Allen Jerkens or El Cajon before "taking a shot" in a major route race.

Now the future is in disarray. My guess is Reddam watched the race with the same rose-colored lenses you did ("he almost beat TWO classic winners!"), and will target the Pennsylvania Derby if not the Travers. Should be good for another middle move and fade job. Good luck.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

What exactly was the "bad opinion"? That is was a dumb spot to enter the horse? He didn't hit the board in a 5-horse field. I don't need to predict that his long-term career is compromised in order to justify the original opinion. The actual results of the Jim Dandy are more than adequate.

Instead of witnessing an also-ran performance (however heroic or otherwise) in the Jim Dandy, we might have seen him crush an allowance race as a springboard to something like the Allen Jerkens or El Cajon before "taking a shot" in a major route race.

Now the future is in disarray. My guess is Reddam watched the race with the same rose-colored lenses you did ("he almost beat TWO classic winners!"), and will target the Pennsylvania Derby if not the Travers. Should be good for another middle move and fade job. Good luck.

Yeah he definitely should've been pointing for the El Cajon instead.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Pavel was a head from beating both Classic winners

That's funny, I don't remember saying that Pavel was not a talented horse. In fact, the very reason I even posted about a horse with but a single start in a 6.5f maiden race is because I believe he's very talented.

and the only match race among them was to see who could finish last.

Of course, the match race comment was tongue-in-cheek. The point there was that if the race was refashioned as a match race between two classic winners, Pavel wouldn't have been able start.

On the bright side, I'm glad you waited until after the race to post these misreadings of my post. Wouldn't have wanted to gum up all the legit pre-race discussion of the Jim Dandy in this thread.