A funny thing happened on the way to the coronation...

[Rudeboyelvis]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hggabHmAdxY

[Rupert Pupkin]

You guys are a lot more optimistic about the election than I am. I think Hillary will win. I don't think she is a sure thing. The IDP poll gives me some hope. They have been the most accurate poll in the last few elections and they have Trump up by 2%. But even if Trump squeaks out a victory in the popular vote, I'm not particularly optimistic about him winning the election. As I have posted before, I think there is plenty of voter fraud out there. That gives Hillary a big edge in a close election.

I know you guys have said that the polls are overrepresented with democrats, but hasn't that been the case in past elections too? In the past few elections, the polls have turned out to be pretty accurate.

[Pants II]

If she wins then it just proves this country is already conquered. We're bankrupt. We're being overrun by 3rd world savages. The media and politicians are mostly anti-white degenerates.

I hope to see them suffer but I doubt it will happen. White men have been defeated. The people in charge of banks and the government aren't white men of European descent. They hate our founders and they hate us.

The best advice I can give a regular white guy who comes from bloodlines of the Crusaders....try to get to a rural location and lay low. We're being targeted.

When the head of the FBI is a spineless p.ussy who is intimidated by a lame duck President and an elderly lesbian...you know the country is doomed.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

You guys are a lot more optimistic about the election than I am. I think Hillary will win. I don't think she is a sure thing. The IDP poll gives me some hope. They have been the most accurate poll in the last few elections and they have Trump up by 2%. But even if Trump squeaks out a victory in the popular vote, I'm not particularly optimistic about him winning the election. As I have posted before, I think there is plenty of voter fraud out there. That gives Hillary a big edge in a close election.

I know you guys have said that the polls are overrepresented with democrats, but hasn't that been the case in past elections too? In the past few elections, the polls have turned out to be pretty accurate.

These polls have been overweighted because there are, traditionally, more Democrats than Republicans. The past two elections were even more heavily weighted because of the Obama enthusiasm among the African American community, who traditionally have not gone out to vote in the same numbers as whites. They never adjusted these back down, so she has always been showing higher.

Problem - They overplayed their hand in the early voting (EV) states as her turnout has been anemic relative to Republican support. Florida's Dem EV, for instance, is alarmingly much lower than they had expected, and she now needs an Obama-like turnout on tomorrow to carry the state. Nate Sliver has all but given FL to Trump.

The same scenario has played out in NC which has been a solid Left/Leaning Left state until EV closed, it is now a toss up/leaning Right state. CO and NV are in the same boat. She is in serious danger of losing MI and PA, and has unscheduled events there in a desperate attempt to shore up her support.

There is full out panic in the campaign. You can see it in Robbie Mook's face as he is being interviewed today. They know there is no way they are going to get the turnout they need to win AZ, OH, FL, NC. They are struggling to hold leaning left states of NH, NV, CO, MI and, if EV turnout is any indication, will lose all 4.

I didn't think I'd be as confident the evening before ED, but I don't have much doubt about President Trump Wednesday morning.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Report: Team Hillary surrendering OH, FL, NC

http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2016...orth-carolina/

Question - would Hillary, Bill, Michelle, POTUS, Springsteen, and Bon Jovi ALL be in Philly tonight because it's a slam dunk? I didn't think so either.

Internal polling suggest that there is strong Trump support *Especially Among Women* in the Philly burbs. I did not think PA was in play but looking at the fire power being deployed in the 11th hour by the HRC campaign, it's pretty apparent they are sh1tting themselves.

[CheekyBird]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

...looking at the fire power being deployed in the 11th hour by the HRC campaign, it's pretty apparent they are sh1tting themselves.

[Pants II]

MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by Pants II

MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!

Locked in on CNN for the pure schadenfreude of it all. She needs Obama-like numbers in Detroit and she is nowhere near that.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by CheekyBird

Delusional? Yes, about as delusional as Nostradamus.

[CheekyBird]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

Delusional? Yes, about as delusional as Nostradamus.

Just have to get on with it, don't we? I'd like to sack the person who was in charge of rigging the system though. Piss poor job. ;-)

Congratulations Trump

My work here is done

Cheers.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

These polls have been overweighted because there are, traditionally, more Democrats than Republicans. The past two elections were even more heavily weighted because of the Obama enthusiasm among the African American community, who traditionally have not gone out to vote in the same numbers as whites. They never adjusted these back down, so she has always been showing higher.

Problem - They overplayed their hand in the early voting (EV) states as her turnout has been anemic relative to Republican support. Florida's Dem EV, for instance, is alarmingly much lower than they had expected, and she now needs an Obama-like turnout on tomorrow to carry the state. Nate Sliver has all but given FL to Trump.

The same scenario has played out in NC which has been a solid Left/Leaning Left state until EV closed, it is now a toss up/leaning Right state. CO and NV are in the same boat. She is in serious danger of losing MI and PA, and has unscheduled events there in a desperate attempt to shore up her support.

There is full out panic in the campaign. You can see it in Robbie Mook's face as he is being interviewed today. They know there is no way they are going to get the turnout they need to win AZ, OH, FL, NC. They are struggling to hold leaning left states of NH, NV, CO, MI and, if EV turnout is any indication, will lose all 4.

I didn't think I'd be as confident the evening before ED, but I don't have much doubt about President Trump Wednesday morning.

As of right now, it looks like you made an amazing call!

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

As of right now, it looks like you made an amazing call!

Learned my lesson from Brexit. Everything ounce of equities I had as of last Friday, is in cash, gold and VIX.

Wednesday is going to be a good day. plus President Trump with a majority house and senate, and medical marijuana in FL.

2017 is going to kick ass.

[Pants II]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

Learned my lesson from Brexit. Everything ounce of equities I had as of last Friday, is in cash, gold and VIX.

Wednesday is going to be a good day. plus President Trump with a majority house and senate, and medical marijuana in FL.

2017 is going to kick ass.

'memba when I got heat for GOLD?

L U L Z



THE GREAT TRIGGERING OF OUR TIME IS UPON US!

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by Pants II

'memba when I got heat for GOLD?

L U L Z



THE GREAT TRIGGERING OF OUR TIME IS UPON US!

[Rudeboyelvis]

Watching Wolf Blitzer, Dana Bash, and Jake Tapper trying to work through complete disillusionment and demoralization is worth everything right now.

[kp319]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

These polls have been overweighted because there are, traditionally, more Democrats than Republicans. The past two elections were even more heavily weighted because of the Obama enthusiasm among the African American community, who traditionally have not gone out to vote in the same numbers as whites. They never adjusted these back down, so she has always been showing higher.

Problem - They overplayed their hand in the early voting (EV) states as her turnout has been anemic relative to Republican support. Florida's Dem EV, for instance, is alarmingly much lower than they had expected, and she now needs an Obama-like turnout on tomorrow to carry the state. Nate Sliver has all but given FL to Trump.

The same scenario has played out in NC which has been a solid Left/Leaning Left state until EV closed, it is now a toss up/leaning Right state. CO and NV are in the same boat. She is in serious danger of losing MI and PA, and has unscheduled events there in a desperate attempt to shore up her support.

There is full out panic in the campaign. You can see it in Robbie Mook's face as he is being interviewed today. They know there is no way they are going to get the turnout they need to win AZ, OH, FL, NC. They are struggling to hold leaning left states of NH, NV, CO, MI and, if EV turnout is any indication, will lose all 4.

I didn't think I'd be as confident the evening before ED, but I don't have much doubt about President Trump Wednesday morning.

I lost a bet on this election, a steak dinner at Peter Lugers in Brooklyn Hats off to you for outperforming every big time pollster around. I hope your horsebets go as well in 2017.

[geeker2]

Originally Posted by kp319

I lost a bet on this election, a steak dinner at Peter Lugers in Brooklyn Hats off to you for outperforming every big time pollster around. I hope your horsebets go as well in 2017.

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

These polls have been overweighted because there are, traditionally, more Democrats than Republicans. The past two elections were even more heavily weighted because of the Obama enthusiasm among the African American community, who traditionally have not gone out to vote in the same numbers as whites. They never adjusted these back down, so she has always been showing higher.

Problem - They overplayed their hand in the early voting (EV) states as her turnout has been anemic relative to Republican support. Florida's Dem EV, for instance, is alarmingly much lower than they had expected, and she now needs an Obama-like turnout on tomorrow to carry the state. Nate Sliver has all but given FL to Trump.

The same scenario has played out in NC which has been a solid Left/Leaning Left state until EV closed, it is now a toss up/leaning Right state. CO and NV are in the same boat. She is in serious danger of losing MI and PA, and has unscheduled events there in a desperate attempt to shore up her support.

There is full out panic in the campaign. You can see it in Robbie Mook's face as he is being interviewed today. They know there is no way they are going to get the turnout they need to win AZ, OH, FL, NC. They are struggling to hold leaning left states of NH, NV, CO, MI and, if EV turnout is any indication, will lose all 4.

I didn't think I'd be as confident the evening before ED, but I don't have much doubt about President Trump Wednesday morning.

That turned out to be a great analysis Dan

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by kp319

I lost a bet on this election, a steak dinner at Peter Lugers in Brooklyn Hats off to you for outperforming every big time pollster around. I hope your horsebets go as well in 2017.

Originally Posted by geeker2

That turned out to be a great analysis Dan

Thanks guys - following this closely has been one of the most fascinating experiences I've ever gotten myself involved with.

Coach mentioned Bill Mitchell earlier, and really were it not for his selflessness, taking the time to explain the science behind why certain groups (and subgroups) get weighted and how to determine accurate weighting, and offering explanations on how to interpret the demographics, I would likely not have gotten as involved.

Dude deserves immense credit. He was tireless and when he wasn't helping breakdown what was coming out, he was getting attacked, regularly, by "polling geniuses" like Frank Luntz and Nate Silver.

Turns out there was a perfect storm of over estimating Clinton support, underestimating college graduate (*educated*) whites, and most importantly the fact that Blacks and legal Latinos seem care more about good jobs & safe communities than they do some invisible, blind allegiance to the Democratic Party. He carried 10% more of the Latino vote than did Romney in 2012, and similar numbers among Blacks.

Only one poll, the LA Times/USC poll - utilized an enthusiasm algorithm Which had Trump on top virtually every single day since the conventions. In an ordinary election cycle, this likely would not have come into play and because of this, was considered an outlier by 538 and not given it's proper credence.

[Pants II]

oh 'memba the correspondents dinner?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k8TwRmX6zs4

[geeker2]

Originally Posted by Pants II

oh 'memba the correspondents dinner?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k8TwRmX6zs4

Trump has the last laugh...I love it Coach