Derby Toss

[tanner12oz]

Why is everyone dumping carpe diem? Horse has been a pillar of consistency..im not crazy about pletchers derby stats but horse hasn't done anything wrong thus far.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by tanner12oz

Why is everyone dumping carpe diem? Horse has been a pillar of consistency..im not crazy about pletchers derby stats but horse hasn't done anything against anyone worth racing thus far.

FTFY

Oh, and he is slow. But so is International Star...though realistically, neither has really had to do much thus far. IS can at least close into reasonable fractions. CD needs to be close against real horses and has kind of shown his hand already. I'd expect (regardless of the hype) both to be 15-1 ish, and IS is the play there IMO

[tanner12oz]

I think the pace scenario is going to be pretty interesting. I don't picture wicked fractions and a pace meltdown..think your going to need to be in the first or second tier at worst.

[ninetoone]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

FTFY

Oh, and he is slow. But so is International Star...though realistically, neither has really had to do much thus far. IS can at least close into reasonable fractions. CD needs to be close against real horses and has kind of shown his hand already. I'd expect (regardless of the hype) both to be 15-1 ish, and IS is the play there IMO

You expect Carpe Diem to be 15-1???

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by ninetoone

You expect Carpe Diem to be 15-1???

-ish.

Yes.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by ninetoone

You expect Carpe Diem to be 15-1???

The Florida - NY route horses tend to be overbet (regardless of whether they have a chance or not) and typically horses like International Star and Carpe Diem are value - if you are talking about horses that have "done nothing wrong". They are both slow in terms of relative speed, but neither has worked a great deal to get here either. In my opinion, IS just has upside, where CD doesn't.

American Pharoah
Frosted
Dortmund
Materiality
Upstart

will be lower than Carpe Diem at post

[Kitan]

Don't forget the influence Pletcher will have with the tote board. Many average Joes who won't know anything about the race besides the fact Pletcher is a top trainer and just blindly bet on him.

[ninetoone]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

The Florida - NY route horses tend to be overbet (regardless of whether they have a chance or not) and typically horses like International Star and Carpe Diem are value - if you are talking about horses that have "done nothing wrong". They are both slow in terms of relative speed, but neither has worked a great deal to get here either. In my opinion, IS just has upside, where CD doesn't.

American Pharoah
Frosted
Dortmund
Materiality
Upstart

will be lower than Carpe Diem at post

No way...I only wish I could get some action on that prediction

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by ninetoone

No way...I only wish I could get some action on that prediction

I'm not booking it - I haven't been right all year

have a great Derby, man

[IrishofNDMan]

Only playing two horses on top, American Pharoah and Far Right. Going to hope to get lucky and play a nice oaks deeby souble wirh birdatthewire and far right.