2015: American Pharoah becomes 12th Triple Crown winner

[Kitan]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

I'd like to know what exactly Tencendur has done wrong - caught off-tracks in 3 of 5 starts, and moved up nicely when finally catching a fast main track. A lot of Frosted love here, yet this one had a legit shot to move way up off the Wood effort and is not even in many of the discussions.

Hasn't done anything wrong, I just don't think he's good enough at this stage. Was my key longshot in the Wood and I feel that was the race to play him. Maybe he moved too early, but Frosted easily breezed past. His BRIS LP figs are very close but not high enough historically to make me want to confidently use him underneath.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by Kitan

Hasn't done anything wrong, I just don't think he's good enough at this stage. Was my key longshot in the Wood and I feel that was the race to play him. Maybe he moved too early, but Frosted easily breezed past. His BRIS LP figs are very close but not high enough historically to make me want to confidently use him underneath.

Fair enough, but my point was that 100% of his figures prior to the Wood are based on the Inner track at Aqueduct....75% of which were over an off track.


Food for thought, is all. If the Wood was a conditioner for him (consequently, his best race to date + his longest distance ever run, over a traditionally laid-out surface), he could clearly move up at a huge number. I'll be watching his works and how he handles CD very closely.

[Kitan]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

Fair enough, but my point was that 100% of his figures prior to the Wood are based on the Inner track at Aqueduct....75% of which were over an off track.


Food for thought, is all. If the Wood was a conditioner for him (consequently, his best race to date + his longest distance ever run, over a traditionally laid-out surface), he could clearly move up at a huge number. I'll be watching his works and how he handles CD very closely.

Oh of course, I'm not doubting his potential to continue to improve. I'm just not sure that improvement would be enough to be a major factor. He could move up as you suggest, as could many others in the field, and run a great race. Problem is in the Derby that might mean only 5th place...

[LARHAGE]

I would think Castellano over Smith on Materiality, no?

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by LARHAGE

I would think Castellano over Smith on Materiality, no?

Owners are pushing for Smith (there's a New Mexico tie-in); Pletcher prefers Castellano.

[cakes44]

Well if it's Smith we'll know who's gonna be on the lead.

[Kasept]

5/2/15 (CD): Kentucky Derby (10f)

1. International Star (Maker/Mena)
2. Dortmund (Baffert/M. Garcia)
3. Carpe Diem (Pletcher/Velazquez)
4. American Pharoah (Baffert/V. Espinoza)
5. Frosted (McLaighlin/Rosario)
6. Mubtaahij (de Kock/Soumillon)
7. Materiality (Pletcher/Castellano)
8. El Kabeir (Terranova/Borel)
9. Upstart (Violette/J. Ortiz)
10. Far Right (Moquett/Smith)

11. Itsaknockout (Pletcher/Saez)
12. Firing Line (S. Callaghan/Stevens)
13. Danzig Moon (Casse/Leparoux)
14. War Story (Amoss/Talamo)
15. Tencendur (Weaver/Franco)
16. Stanford (Pletcher/Geroux?)
17. Mr. Z (Lukas/Vasquez)
18. Ocho Ocho Ocho (Cassidy/TBA)
19. Bolo (Gaines/Bejarano)
20. Keen Ice (Romans/Desormeaux)
-------------
21. Frammento (Zito)
22. Bold Conquest (Asmussen)
23. Firespike (Maker)
24. Toasting Master (Romans)

[Kasept]

UPCOMING UNDERCARD STAKES PROBABLES

The following is an early rundown of known possible starters in Derby Week stakes races, according to assistant racing secretary and stakes coordinator Dan Bork:

$400,000 ALYSHEBA (GII) (Entries taken April 28; race May 1) – Call Me George, Honor Code, Noble Bird, Ride On Curlin. Possible: Den’s Legacy.

$300,000 LA TROIENNE (GI) (Entries taken April 28; race May 1) – America, Frivolous, Molly Morgan, My Miss Sophia, Pearl Turn, Sheer Drama, Stopchargingmaria, Wedding Toast. Possible: Interest Free, Tiz Windy.

$200,000 EIGHT BELLES (GIII) (Entries taken April 28; race May 1) – Ekati’s Phaeton, Fancy and Flashy, Lavender Chrissie, Mizz Money, Promise Me Silver, Streetheart, Super Saks, Taylor S.

$150,000 EDGEWOOD PRESENTED BY FORCHT BANK (GIII) (Entries taken April 28; race May 1) – Lady Zuzu, Pangburn, Quality Rocks. Possible: B Rockett, Sweet Opportunity, Whimsicality.

$150,000 TWIN SPIRES TURF SPRINT (GIII) (Entries taken April 28; race May 1) – Berlino Di Tiger (BRZ), Buster Rose, Channel Marker, Good Deed, Heitai, Positive Side, Power Alert (AUS), Something Extra, Undrafted.

$500,000 WOODFORD RESERVE TURF CLASSIC (GI) (Entries taken April 29; race May 2) – Chocolate Ride, Finnegans Wake, Seek Again, Umgiyo (AUS).

$500,000 CHURCHILL DOWNS (GII) (Entries taken April 29; race May 2) – Bayern, C. Zee, Pants On Fire, Private Zone. Possible: The Big Beast.

$300,000 CHURCHILL DOWNS DISTAFF TURF MILE PRESENTED BY LONGINES (GII) (Entries taken April 29; race May 2) – Coffee Clique, I’m Already Sexy, Lady Lara (IRE), Maid On a Mission, Personal Diary, Sandiva (IRE), Solid Appeal, Strike Charmer, Tepin.

$300,000 HUMANA DISTAFF (GI) (Entries taken April 29; race May 2) – Classic Point, Dame Dorothy, Judy the Beauty, Princess Violet, Sweet Reason, Sweet Whiskey, You Bought Her. Possible: Clearly Confused.

$250,000 AMERICAN TURF PRESENTED BY RAM TRUCKS (GII) (Entries taken April 29; race May 2) – A Lot, Conquest Typhoon, Firespike, Force the Pass, Indianaughty, Metaboss, Tuba, Wireless Future, World Approval. Possible: Royal Son.

$200,000 PAT DAY MILE PRESENTED BY LG&E AND KU (GIII) (Entries taken April 29; race May 2) – Competitive Edge, Conquest Bigluck E, Hillbilly Royalty, Pain and Misery, Toasting Master, Where’s the Moon.

[Dunbar]

I'm failing to see what, if anything, separates Am Pharoah and Dortmund by so much over Upstart and Materiality. I get it that Materiality has only had 3 races. But those races were not cakewalks. His (and to a lesser extent Upstart's) last-race BSF's are significantly superior to AP's and Dortmund's. And I get that AP was wound down late in the Ark Derby, but not IMO to a degree that would have flipped the BSF order.

At this point I'm thinking that Am Pharoah and Dortmund will both be significantly overbet. Carpe Diem will be wildly overbet. There should be a lot of value in several of the other horses.

--Dunbar

[tywizard]

Has a rider been named for Lovely Maria?

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I'm failing to see what, if anything, separates Am Pharoah and Dortmund by so much over Upstart and Materiality. I get it that Materiality has only had 3 races. But those races were not cakewalks. His (and to a lesser extent Upstart's) last-race BSF's are significantly superior to AP's and Dortmund's. And I get that AP was wound down late in the Ark Derby, but not IMO to a degree that would have flipped the BSF order.

At this point I'm thinking that Am Pharoah and Dortmund will both be significantly overbet. Carpe Diem will be wildly overbet. There should be a lot of value in several of the other horses.

--Dunbar

I agree with this. If the race is bet like it's being talked about, Upstart will be far and away the best value. Materiality would be good value too, but I prefer a horse with Upstart's foundation.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I'm failing to see what, if anything, separates Am Pharoah and Dortmund by so much over Upstart and Materiality. I get it that Materiality has only had 3 races. But those races were not cakewalks. His (and to a lesser extent Upstart's) last-race BSF's are significantly superior to AP's and Dortmund's. And I get that AP was wound down late in the Ark Derby, but not IMO to a degree that would have flipped the BSF order.

At this point I'm thinking that Am Pharoah and Dortmund will both be significantly overbet. Carpe Diem will be wildly overbet. There should be a lot of value in several of the other horses.

--Dunbar

FWIW, I'm less confident now that Dortmund will be "significantly overbet". With post positions considered, and most of Dortmund's toughest competition drawing poorly, I'd make Dortmund a 9-2 fav in a no-vig line. So, if he goes off at 4-1 or higher, I wouldn't think that's "overbet".

--Dunbar