Derby Favorite

[senator L]

I think the favorite will be well under 5-1. More like 2-1.
The (2) biggest fav's will be American Pharaoh and Dortmund
depending on their last race of course. Horses between 4-1 and 9-1
will be Upstart, Materiality and Mubtaahi the rest will be dbl digits imo

[declansharbor]

Originally Posted by senator L

I think the favorite will be well under 5-1. More like 2-1.
The (2) biggest fav's will be American Pharaoh and Dortmund
depending on their last race of course. Horses between 4-1 and 9-1
will be Upstart, Materiality and Mubtaahi the rest will be dbl digits imo

Idk about the 2-1 part.

It's tough to envision ANY horse going off at 2-1 in this year's KD, too wide open. There really isnt a 'standout' like Cali Chrome was last yr, imo.

Cant wait for the gate(s) to open!

[Thunder Gulch]

Originally Posted by senator L

I think the favorite will be well under 5-1. More like 2-1.
The (2) biggest fav's will be American Pharaoh and Dortmund
depending on their last race of course. Horses between 4-1 and 9-1
will be Upstart, Materiality and Mubtaahi the rest will be dbl digits imo

No way. Since they set it up for 20 parimutuel entries, I can only think of a handful who were that short, and they were standouts going in. This is a deep crop. Plus, with bombs like Giacomo and Mine That Bird, the crowd just won't let those who look to be 50-1 go off at those prices. Unless there are a couple of big defections, it's a 7-2 or 4-1 favorite.

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

No way. Since they set it up for 20 parimutuel entries, I can only think of a handful who were that short, and they were standouts going in. This is a deep crop. Plus, with bombs like Giacomo and Mine That Bird, the crowd just won't let those who look to be 50-1 go off at those prices. Unless there are a couple of big defections, it's a 7-2 or 4-1 favorite.

I see 4/5-1 unless something sensational happens.

[ateamstupid]

My guess is Dortmund at around 7-2. There's no way anyone will be close to 2-1.

[cakes44]

AP will be the solid favorite after he dominates next weekend IMO. 3-1.

[declansharbor]

Originally Posted by cakes44

AP will be the solid favorite after he dominates next weekend IMO. 3-1.

He would have to damn near lap that Ark Derby field to be bet down to 3-1, IMO.

Unless he or Dortmund win their next race by the length of the stretch, I just cant see any horse in the race going off at 3-1.

Even if the favorite sits at 3-1 throughout the day, people will play elsewhere thus raising the favorite's odds, again, imo.

[cakes44]

Originally Posted by declansharbor

He would have to damn near lap that Ark Derby field to be bet down to 3-1, IMO.

Unless he or Dortmund win their next race by the length of the stretch, I just cant see any horse in the race going off at 3-1.

Even if the favorite sits at 3-1 throughout the day, people will play elsewhere thus raising the favorite's odds, again, imo.

Might be right.

[senator L]

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

No way. Since they set it up for 20 parimutuel entries, I can only think of a handful who were that short, and they were standouts going in. This is a deep crop. Plus, with bombs like Giacomo and Mine That Bird, the crowd just won't let those who look to be 50-1 go off at those prices. Unless there are a couple of big defections, it's a 7-2 or 4-1 favorite.

Probably right with 20 horses. The last (2) winners that were 2-1
were Big Brown and Fusaichi Pegasus. If Dortmund wins the SA Derby
I think he'll be 2-1 or 3-1 at highest. That would make him 8 8 0 0
and Baffert is his trainer, those two things alone will take a lot of money

[pucknut]

Originally Posted by senator L

I think the favorite will be well under 5-1. More like 2-1.
The (2) biggest fav's will be American Pharaoh and Dortmund
depending on their last race of course. Horses between 4-1 and 9-1
will be Upstart, Materiality and Mubtaahi the rest will be dbl digits imo

hope you are right.
carpe diem on double digits= get some

[alysheba4]

would be SHOCKED if C.D. is more than 6-1.

[Indian Charlie]

I'm kind of surprised everyone thinks the favorite is going to be like 5/1.

It's very possible, especially if Pharoah takes to the track, that he goes off 2/1 or lower.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

I'm kind of surprised everyone thinks the favorite is going to be like 5/1.

It's very possible, especially if Pharoah takes to the track, that he goes off 2/1 or lower.

5/1 seems a bit long but if AP wins easy this weekend as expected it would be like

3/1 on Dortmund
4/1 on AP
8/1 on Carpe Diem and then double digits and rising fast on everyone else.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

5/1 seems a bit long but if AP wins easy this weekend as expected it would be like

3/1 on Dortmund
4/1 on AP
8/1 on Carpe Diem and then double digits and rising fast on everyone else.

If AP runs as expected this weekend, it's hard to see Dortmund being favored over him.

I don't even know how CD is playable.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

If AP runs as expected this weekend, it's hard to see Dortmund being favored over him.

I don't even know how CD is playable.

I would imagine an unbeaten, 17 hand tall giant of a horse who is likely to get a ton of pre race hype, who crushed in california, is likely to get a bit more play...well see I guess.

[pucknut]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

If AP runs as expected this weekend, it's hard to see Dortmund being favored over him.

I don't even know how CD is playable.

Wow! thats a bold statement given CD'S resume
I hope more of the Pharoh worshippers and the soccer moms share that view
6-1 or higher ill take it all day long

[knickslions2]

Originally Posted by alysheba4

would be SHOCKED if C.D. is more than 6-1.

I think he will be at best 6-1. I can see him at 10-1 or higher easily especially when AP romps this weekend