How Derby winners have performed in Preakness since '89

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

Doug,

Looking at the pace figures, final times, pace dynamics, wasn't Super Saver one the few horses with a really strong Derby who just flopped in the Preakness?

Here is the Paceline

CD 05/01/2010 11 113 92 81 Super Saver

So the race collapsed but he was pretty close to that 113 at only 8 lengths of it, other Derbys with a +25 to +35 profile seem to all really collapse into 15-20 length Giacomo style wins.

Either way I wills stab against Orb.

Super Saver might have just been a slop freak.

He only raced twice on a sloppy track, one time he broke his maiden by 7 lengths in a race where the 3rd place horse was beaten 15 lengths and the 4th place horse was beaten 20 lengths.

His other sloppy track race, he of course won the Derby with Borel after getting a clear rail trip.

History says you have to stab against Orb ... I just don't know who you stab against him with. I'd love to see Dreaming of Julia step up...but Pletcher is talking about running her in the Belmont Stakes. I don't know about that though, she's out of the Rick Violette speed sprinter Dream Rush...which sure does offset a lot of the A. P. Indy on the top of the pedigree.