5/4: Churchill Downs (139th Kentucky Derby)

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by pointman

Is there any way we are going to get 10-1 on Southern Dude? Working through that race it seemed obvious to me on paper that tactically this race sets up very well for him.

Originally Posted by Rootdog1

Really? Berlino Di Tiger will get the lead, and Regally Ready is quicker than Southern Dude. I am not sold on a horse running in restricted races at FG and races at Haw. That said, I dont have a great alternative in the race.

Originally Posted by tiggerv

Don't you almost have to send from the rail? I like him too but I assume he will get bet down.

Originally Posted by knickslions2

I hope I dont jinx you but I love this horse in this race. Best of luck today Nick. Off to pocono downs in about an hour

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Agree 100% and surprised more people don't feel the same. . . When you watch his two U.S. starts, he was trying desperately to get to the front, but just had too much other speed trying to do the same. I can't imagine Julien guns that hard to deny him, and it might not matter because his horse just doesn't seem as fast. I know Berlino Di Tiger's two U.S. starts look pretty terrible on paper, but I think he's going to run a lot differently with an easier trip. Also--look at his Brazilian races--all came at 5f and on soft or heavy ground.

Since there seems to be a lot of confusion about this group, Maker/Rosario is probably the right direction. The more I look at it, the more likely it seems you get one of the late runners up, especially since we're all grappling with who the speed of the speed will be.. G/L.. Just be glad this isn't in the P5.