Quote:
Originally Posted by philcski
The problem with the bet is longshots are not worth any more than favorites. If your smart 20-1 runs 2nd, but the 1/5 shot clunks up for 3rd, you don't have an edge.
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Of course you're right about this, but this isn't the thinking that would lead someone to necessarily play the bet. You look for a race in the sequence where you think a favorite, especially a reasonably heavy one, is extremely vulnerable, as if you can get that horse off the board, you rate to get, say, 6:1 to 10:1 for that race. Obviously that's easier said than done, but you do have to add in the insurance that you can still cash should you use a horse that hits the board and the favorite also runs in.
05-24-2010, 03:46 PM
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