Noble's Promise: Did Willie Cost him at least a placing?

[NTamm1215]

If the argument, and I'm sure I'll be wrong, is that a horse who will ultimately attempt to rally into a race that unfolds in a layered scenario (a la most Derbies) runs into trouble as other horses are moving, it enables him to make that "last run" that often works best in said type of race.

Ice Box is almost always going to be a "last mover" type of horse and he's certainly going to need a layered race (pace that backs up, another horse that moves prematurely and/or collapses the race). I guess the only part of this argument that I'm unsure about is how we can say with certainty that he wouldn't have won the damn thing by three lengths had he been able to swing out just inside the 1/4 pole and make one sustained run down the middle. I probably can't be sure it wouldn't have worked by noting that Lookin at Lucky and Make Music For Me attempted basically that and both came up wanting.

NT