5/25 belmont

[pick4]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Taking horses trying the turf for the first time at short prices is never a great idea. Plus, Tagg is now being overbet, especially in these situations, so you are taking much the worst of it with this horse.

Look, obviously the horse can win, but making money at the track requires being counterintuitive, particularly in these kinds of situations, and betting on the Value Streams of the world is a losing proposition over the long haul.

I hoping to get Madam Bling home and hopefully at her 10-1 odds. If Madam Bling does not run well I will lose. But I will include Value Stream in my wagers. I not sure how I want to bet on this race yet.

The points you made about Value Stream are definately valid about taking a horse at a short price trying grass first time. But once again we are confronted with the move from Poly to grass or dirt. She's been morning glory since coming to Belmont. How that translates to raceday is an ? which will be answered in about 13 hours.