5/25 belmont
 

belmont on sunday, anybody look at the 4th on the turf ?

You picked a real skullbuster to solicit some wisdom? Great trainers, great pedigree, and it's a grass race doing long at Belmont Park.

I think it would be wise to take a look at Madam Bling. James Toner is a great trainer of grass horses. He's pretty good at bringing a grass horse back from a layoff having it fit and ready to run. Madam Bling ran three times last year ran pretty well. She wintered down in Florida and looking at the works I think she looks fit. Mr. Toner trained a few siblings of hers who won on the grass at NYRA tracks. She's 10-1 morning line and I have a feeling she'll be around those odds when they go to post.

2,6,8. That's all I got.

The 9 is the filly sales-topper Charlotte Weber bought 3 years ago at KEE. Mott had her originally... The daughter of the great Escena is now with Frankel.

$2.7 milly would buy a lot of soup.

McGaughey's filly has all breezing works and a single handily work (from the gate). And, this work is significantly faster than any of the others: 46.1 handily from the gate on April 18 at KEE. She runs, 1st time, April 25 and is outrun 23 lengths the 1st quarter, run in 45.3, after breaking slowly (but nothing significant).

Go figure that one out.

P.S. Why is there a distinction between breezing and handily works when so many have argued on this board that horses taken in hand during races couldn't have run faster if asked?

That may be enough. Especially love the works on the 6.

WP on #2 Jelly Roll

Exacta box 2-7

Good Luck All ! :)

Jelly Roll is not much horse.

Value Stream and Venetian Causeway ran in the same race on 4/25 at Keeneland. I just watched the race and Value Stream ran a winning race and was unfortunate to lose. The winner of the race Alluring Tune finished third as the favorire last Sunday at Belmont but had a bad trip as she checked on the turn which caused her to lose momentum in addition to a few lengths.

I already posted that I like Madam Bling to run a good race. Value Stream, as I was reminded by another poster is the horse to beat. Tagg trained horses have had their pictures taken quite a few times since Belmont Park opened.

Taking horses trying the turf for the first time at short prices is never a great idea. Plus, Tagg is now being overbet, especially in these situations, so you are taking much the worst of it with this horse.

Look, obviously the horse can win, but making money at the track requires being counterintuitive, particularly in these kinds of situations, and betting on the Value Streams of the world is a losing proposition over the long haul.

I hoping to get Madam Bling home and hopefully at her 10-1 odds. If Madam Bling does not run well I will lose. But I will include Value Stream in my wagers. I not sure how I want to bet on this race yet.

The points you made about Value Stream are definately valid about taking a horse at a short price trying grass first time. But once again we are confronted with the move from Poly to grass or dirt. She's been morning glory since coming to Belmont. How that translates to raceday is an ? which will be answered in about 13 hours.

Belmont 7th
 

Equally is a single.

Not much of a donut either :D

Good one. :cool:

I'm not sure I share your confidence but I like Equally as well.

You shouldn't after yesterday (my wonderful selection)....Must thank you for the Sadlers Wells pick which helped ease the pain.

I agree. there will be lots of money going to Value Stream and the new Frankel filly, but I like this one coming back after a solid 2yo foundation. lots to like.

This one goes to Venitian Causeway. Looks to be a nicely bred Turf Horse.

The Bet:

$30 WP Veneitian Causeway

$10 Ex Box VC - Value Stream

I singled 5. Madam Bling on top and put her on top of in tris and exactas:
1. Kapanga
3. Great Humor
6. Value Stream
8. Venetian Causeway

I had the right horses but keyed the wrong horse.
I had the exacta but in was very bittersweet since I put in a exacta key with Penna Jr.'s Kapanga in slot 2 with 5,6,8 on top. The horse I keyed nosed put the 43-1 for place.