Tom Fool + Dwyer

[VOL JACK]

Originally Posted by miraja2

I really like Nobiz Like Showbiz in the Dwyer.
He ran what was arguably his best race ever in the Holy Bull off of a similar long layoff. Although AGS's strong work on Friday seems to indicate that he might be ready on Wednesday, his performances in Tampa this winter/spring seems to indicate that he runs stronger 2nd off.
Sightseeing and First Defence are simply a step below these two in my opinion. In the Wood Memorial, Nobiz zipped the third quarter while Sightseeing loped along off the pace. Despite that favorable scenario, he couldn't get by Nobiz in the stretch. His victory in the G2 Peter Pan on this track will probably mean he will be overbet.
First Defence has won races against MSW and N1X competition when he had his own way on the front end of sprint races. I don't think he is in the same league as AGS or Nobiz.

As our fearless leader (BTW) likes to say; First Defence eliminates the take out for me.

I don't think U can compare this race and layoff for AGS to the one this march. Pletcher knew it was going to be a long year for this colt and wasn't going to have him primed for his 1st start of the year. I think Todd realizes this is a great spot to pick up the colt 1st graded stake before he runs into Curlin, R2R, and S.S.