Two at Toga (2022)

[moses]

Going to post my early picks for Friday and Saturday today. I'll have to check back on scratches. It looks like my picks for opening day are set to go. Here are the picks for Friday.

Friday, July 15

Best Bet: Race 7 - #6 I Am the Cash Man 8/1 ML, Progno/Worrie. Coming from the Finger Lakes, I fully expect this horse to get overlooked but he's run fairly well in his most recent two starts and I think may have a pace/style advantage in a race that doesn't seem to have much early speed. I respect a horse like American Pure who has some competitive figures heading into the race, good workouts, and is likely an improving 3 year old...not to mention the connections and what seems like quite a bit of class relief here from at least his last start. But, I don't think he or any of the other likely favorites tower over anyone and this seems like a race where it wouldn't be shocking to see a longshot steal it.

Best Value: Race 9 - #12 Sanctuary City 20/1 ML, Ferraro/Carmouche. I've lost a lot of money banking on turf races to have an honest pace only for the horses to jog around the track. But...I think there is enough pace presence here not to worry about that. There should be some decently fast fractions set early. That sets up one of the favorites Set Piece...but also sets up a horse like Sanctuary City, who has shown a nice closing kick at times, though not necessarily consistently. I don't love Carmouche aboard or totally trust him to work out a great trip...but the horse is 20/1 on the morning line, definitely has some talent, and I think will get the pace setup. I'm against Mira Mission here and will probably combo Sanctuary City with some horses like Set Piece, Atone, Public Sector, and Wolfie's Dynaghost. I haven't figured that out yet.