here is what i think,start calling me a dummy

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by ontheoutside

hum, your turn Rupert should get facts straight before hitting those letters

I probably shouldn't have the used the word "average". I should have said, "slightly faster than average". They went the half in :47.11. That was the 3rd fastest half out of the 6 route races on Saturday. Ax Man went :46 4/5. It didn't seem to bother him. He won by 7 lengths. Unle Mojo's race went :46 3/5. He was laying 2nd about 2 lengths behind. So he went around :47. He ended up winning by 12 lengths.

No matter what metric you use, Justify set way faster fractions in the Ky Derby and won easily. He went much slower in the Preakness and barely beat Bravazo. Justify definitely regressed in the Preakness. Now he will be coming back in 3 weeks to run 1 1/2 miles. That is the kind of horse I will always be looking to bet against. As I said before, if he continues to keep training really well, I will not be as gung-ho to bet against him. But if I see even a tiny change (which I am expecting to see) in his appearance, I will be betting against him enthusiastically.

By the way, if you are going to compare the fractions of the Preakness to route races run that day, I think the half mile time is a much better comparison than the opening quarter mile. The Preakness is 1 3/16 miles, so they had a much longer run to the first turn than the other route races. So the opening quarter will automatically be a few ticks faster than the opening quarter in the other route races, all things being equal. They run much faster on straightaways than they do running around a turn.