Quinella at Belmont?

[JolyB]

I have often followed the quinella will-pays in races 2 and 4 on NYRA races, comparing them to the exacta will-pays on the same combinations.

I've found that the quinella will generally pay more than the same amount invested in an exacta box on the same horses when the shorter priced horse of the two wins, and will pay less than the exacta box when the longer priced horse of the two wins. My decision of whether to use the quinella or exacta box often comes down to which of the two horses I think is the best one to have on top. If the shorter priced one, I go quinella; if the longer priced one, I go exacta box.

I know that this oversimplifies a much more complicated equation. This method has worked for me as a way of sometimes using the quinella to obtain a slightly better payoff on combinations I want to use.

The article you referred to was very helpful. One sentence from that article makes this process very difficult:

" There will always be some uncertainty in the final payoffs due to last minute bets and off-track bets that are added to the pari-mutuel pools after the close of betting."

Unfortunately, this statement is even more true today than when the article was written, and sometimes has the effect of defeating the very search for extra value that this process attempts to accomplish.