American Pharoah... what's next for our new Champion? (The Haskell)

[pointman]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

his speed figures, particularly beyers, have been comically and idiotically low.

I'm being facetious about him never winning again.

I am one that does believe in speed figures, but I believe in a realistic manner. They are never the be all and end all on handicapping a horse. There are other factors to take into account, in particular whether a horse is likely to increase or decrease off a certain speed figure in a particular scenario and whether the figure is likely to be accurate under the particular circumstances, trip, dynamics, etc. I find it interesting that the 105 that Beyer has assigned and the 128 that Craig has is likely to be much more accurate due to a 1 1/2 mile race being run earlier in the card.

Having said that, I don't have handy the fractions of Smarty Jones' Belmont but I am pretty certain it went much faster than AP's did early on and taking into factors overall, particularly the dynamics that Smarty faced in the Belmont versus AP on Saturday, I believe that Smarty ran a better race. I also think that AP has a lot of room for improvement off what he has run thus far but only time will tell if the connections are true that he will continue racing.

But at the end of the day, I think if the Breeder's Cup were one month from today, Shared Belief would easily beat AP right now. A race or two down the line and improvement by AP by November might change my opinion, but I believe the evidence we have right now supports that conclusion.