Derby field, where they should go, Preakness possibles

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

These were the odds of the Derby winner in the Preakness (with their Derby odds) going back to 2002.

2010 - Super Saver 8-1/1.9-1
2009 - Mine That Bird 50.6-1/6.6-1
2008 - Big Brown 2.4-1/0.20-1
2007 - Street Sense 4.9-1/1.3-1
2006 - Barbaro 6.1-1/0.50-1
2005 - Giacomo 50.3-1/6-1
2004 - Smarty Jones 4.1-1/0.70-1
2003 - Funny Cide 12.8-1/1.90-1
2002 - War Emblem 20.50-1/2.8-1

Basically, there hasn't been a mid-range longshot like Animal Kingdom since War Emblem. The super bombs that have won (Giacomo and Mine That Bird) were considered flukes and/or had another horse in the race that deserved more attention (Rachel Alexandra/Afleet Alex).

There were no trips in the Derby at all. Not one horse coming out of there is worthy of being upgraded in the Preakness because of their Derby effort.

Of the non-Derby starters who may run there you have:

Astrology - 0-2 this year and has gone off the 2nd choice both times
Concealed Identity - 7-1 in his Tesio win yesterday
Dance City - 29-1 in the Arkansas Derby 3rd place finish
Flashpoint - 9/2 in Florida Derby
King Congie - 13-1 in the Blue Grass and his two dirt races were awful
Norman Asbjornson - 47-1 and 26-1 in the Gotham and Wood Memorial
Prime Cut - 3-1 in the Lexington runner-up finish
Sway Away - Always seems to get bet, 6-1 when 4th in Arkansas
Mr. Commons - 3-1 in the SA Derby, which hardly proved to be a solid prep

So, if you take the horses who ran yesterday the only ones I could see getting significant money are Dialed In and Mucho Macho Man. Shackleford was almost 3x Mucho Macho Man's price and I can't see how he wouldn't be a much larger price.

All that being said, I think Animal Kingdom will be well below 2-1.

If this horse wins the Preakness I will eat the program..