In Figures We Trust

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

I haven't looked at the PPs of the horses behind them in those races. But, I suspect, many turfers ran significantly faster than they ever have on dirt.

It's not about someone with an opinion buying into these numbers, as, cleary, neither had a shot (to win) going 7F -- both the distance and the setup were against them. But, these stick out like sore thumbs and, I'd think, that there'd be some work put in towards making sense of them. If it's the case (likely) that they just got the best of it on the front end, given the distance, then the figure should be tweaked. Not like this would be unprecedented.

Of the horses that were entered in the main body of D'bigcat's race (race fig/top dirt fig):

Dixie Night Out (73/76)
Cayo Hueso (69/73)
Morning Run (68/75)
Regal Soul (62/83)
Little Alex (58/65)
Count Catamount (45/78)

So, nobody behind D'bigcat even ran back to their previous dirt top, much less improved on it.

Fastus Cactus' race:

Subtitles (76/98)
Patron Saint (71/88)
Estimator (73/89)
Sumfun (55/93)
A. P. Eddie (51/90)

Now obviously, these weren't all 'turf' horses. But other than My Golden Opinion running second behind FC, there's no also-ran fig that jumps out at you as phony high.