NYRA Grand Slam bet

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by philcski

The problem with the bet is longshots are not worth any more than favorites. If your smart 20-1 runs 2nd, but the 1/5 shot clunks up for 3rd, you don't have an edge.

Of course you're right about this, but this isn't the thinking that would lead someone to necessarily play the bet. You look for a race in the sequence where you think a favorite, especially a reasonably heavy one, is extremely vulnerable, as if you can get that horse off the board, you rate to get, say, 6:1 to 10:1 for that race. Obviously that's easier said than done, but you do have to add in the insurance that you can still cash should you use a horse that hits the board and the favorite also runs in.