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#1
06-06-2013, 01:56 PM
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Belmont Stakes Pace Scenario
not seeing a whole lotta pace here....who will be on the lead? freedom child? don't think oxbow will be "sent" again
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#2
06-06-2013, 02:32 PM
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I'm actually expecting a meltdown. . . They've got to send Oxbow a bit at least--he finally broke through last night while being ridden aggressively--hard to take back now. Plus Frac Daddy's supposedly gunning and I don't think Freedom Child wants to rate. Also, is Palace Malice really going to turn into Silky Sullivan because the blinkers come back off?
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#3
06-06-2013, 03:40 PM
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palace malice.should go again no matter what smith does. it looks to be a pressers race 2nd flight taking over and edging out the deep closers.
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#4
06-06-2013, 07:48 PM
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On a scale of 0-to-10, with 0 being a probable crawl and 10 being a probable meltdown, the computer has the pace for the Belmont Stakes projected to be a 9.
And you already have a longshot on the rail who is going who didn't figure to be a part of the pace, and you have a horse like Vyjack, who would be my biggest bet of the day at Belmont if entered in the Woody Stephens, in there to ensure mid-race pressure. No one is getting a cheap breather mid-race. He's a pure off the pace sprinter/miler and he helps the closers more than anyone. There is always the human element, but it's doubtful that everyone grabs and just lets Frac Daddy go by himself. This race should play right into the wheelhouse of the star-studded slowpokes Orb and Revolutionary.
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#5
06-06-2013, 08:03 PM
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Easiest race of the day. 3 horses can win. Orb, Oxbow and Unlimited Budget.
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#6
06-06-2013, 08:11 PM
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Things look a lot brighter for Overanalyze, Revolutionary, and Palace Malace.
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#8
06-06-2013, 08:20 PM
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#10
06-06-2013, 08:48 PM
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Thought Rosie was one of the few who understood how to ration speed well enough to give the filly a solid chance to win even with the limits of her distance pedigree but your far more aware of the subtlety's involved here with pace ...
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#11
06-06-2013, 09:50 PM
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Quote:
__________________
Books serve to show a man that those original thoughts of his aren't very new at all. Abraham Lincoln
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#12
06-06-2013, 10:32 PM
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I just don't like her in this spot. She was a good 2yo Sales horse last year. Not a real fast work, but 21.60 and she had the best gallop out of any filly at that sale and she cost a ton of money for a Street Sense/Valid Appeal. On top of being one who trained at the sales, she has done A Lot of developing from age 2 to 3. Compare her Demoiselle form to her 3yo form and compare Overanalyze's Remsen to his 3yo form. Unlimited Budget has already developed like a healthy thriving colt is supposed to, where as Overanalyze hasn't developed any...which is weird for a colt who has stayed healthy and hasn't missed any training. I flirted with the idea of taking a shot and picking/stabbing with Overanalyze to win this race as a "grow-up play" and with the idea that he is one of those Pletcher horses like Stay Thirsty who doesn't run a step at Churchill. Overanalyze ran brutal at Churchill at age 2, and in his next start, bounced back to win the best 2yo race of the year in the Remsen. He didn't get any puffed up Florida form this winter for Pletcher, he actually won at Oaklawn, which had been a house of horrors for Pletcher prior to him winning there. I don't usually make a big deal about jockeys, but I don't like that John Velazquez is on him. There are two guys in the room (Jose Lezcano and Junior Alvarado) who fit the horse very well, and they are guys I like on that type of horse in a race where I expect the pace to be fast and contested. IMO, You would have gained a little something on the track over Johnny V. with both guys, and from a betting standpoint, you would have gained higher odds with either one of those guys as well. But Velazquez gets the business in that barn and he's generally a good rider, just not a guy I like in the situation I envision on a horse like Overanalyze.
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#13
06-07-2013, 09:09 AM
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after his Preakness comments, it would be Because.......he said so  which is good enough for me.
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#14
06-07-2013, 09:24 AM
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Nothing particularly strong on the Belmont from me. I'm pretty confident how the race will be run, I expect the pace to be quick and contested and the race will play to the benefit of closers.
I think the four main contenders to win are Palace Malice, Orb, Revolutionary, and Overanalyze...but I'm awfully wishy-washy in terms of which I want most. In terms of how I intend to bet the race ... I'm using Orb as an underneath exotic key with those three other horses. I think Orb is very safe to fire, but he's not real good value, and I expect at least one of those three Pletchers to jump way up, and if they do I'll have a very nice profit. Exacta key: 3-9-12 over 5 Trifecta Key: 3-9-12 over 3-9-12 over 5 It's not a great betting race, but it's not a bad one either. I look forward to it.
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#15
06-07-2013, 09:56 AM
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In terms of how I intend to bet the race ... I'm using Orb as an underneath exotic key with those three other horses. I think Orb is very safe to fire, but he's not real good value, and I expect at least one of those three Pletchers to jump way up, and if they do I'll have a very nice profit.
Exacta key: 3-9-12 over 5 Trifecta Key: 3-9-12 over 3-9-12 over 5 It's not a great betting race, but it's not a bad one either. I look forward to it.[/quote] What are your thoughts on Incognito?
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#17
06-07-2013, 10:26 AM
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9/5/14/2
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#19
06-07-2013, 11:38 AM
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#20
06-07-2013, 11:59 AM
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Linear Mode
