Polytrack

[The Indomitable DrugS]

It's safe to say that it's the trickiest of all the synthetic surfaces. Here are the win percentages of favorites since 2000 in stakes races for both dirt and poly on the five Poly surface tracks.

Del Mar:

Favorites in dirt stakes: 66-for-156 (42%)
Favorites in Poly stakes: 19-for-75 (25%)

Keeneland:

Favorites in dirt stakes: 41-for-118 (35%)
Favorites in Poly stakes: 11-for-74 (15%)

Arlington:

Favorites in dirt stakes: 74-for-198 (37%)
Favorites in Poly stakes: 23-for-80 (29%)

Turfway Park:

Favorites in dirt stakes: 59-for-165 (36%)
Favorites in Poly stakes: 42-for-146 (29%)

Woodbine:

Favorites in dirt stakes: 204-for-493 (41%)
Favorites in Poly stakes: 107-for-312 (34%)


At all five tracks - dirt favorites win % have an absolutely gigantic edge over Poly favorites in stakes ... and at the two major tracks (Del Mar and Keeneland) the margin is almost impossibly wide.

Look at the last couple runnings of the Blue Grass - Stately Victor murdered Paddy O Prado and First Dude .. and yet the 2nd and 3rd place finishers have been much better since. Dominican beat Street Sense - the former was always a dog, the latter won the Kentucky Derby next out and the Travers later in the year. Monba won the Blue Grass one start before running last in the Derby and never winning another race again from several more tries.

Zenyatta has won twice in her career on Polytrack - a one length win over the laughably terrible Model in the '08 Hirsch and a head win over the pathetic and talentless beyond belief Anabaa's Creations in the '09 Hirsch.

I've had a remarkable amount of luck handicapping Poly races by simply drawing a line through every race on the form not run over a poly surface.

If a horse making its Poly debut has started 5 times at Santa Anita on Pro-Ride, 4 times at Hollywood on Cushion, 6 times on turf at various tracks and five other times on dirt at various tracks ... he's treated by me as nothing more than a first time starter making his career debut .. and those prior races are viewed as nothing more than good fitness building workouts.

At tracks like Keeneland and Del Mar ... you run into a lot of races where the entire field consists of heavily raced horses making their career debut. At tracks like Arlington, Turfway, and Woodbine .. that's rarely ever the case - and they are certainly the three poly tracks to totally avoid because of it.

[randallscott35]

B/c its a made up surface. It is meaningless.

[CSC]

Don't take this the wrong way, but given you knew the Bluegrass stats, why did you pick Stately Victor for the derby?

Furthermore, I have no problems capping for poly either, however I really do miss the dirt track at Keeneland and that inside speed bias.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

B/c its a made up surface. It is meaningless.

People might want it to be meaningless, and I know I wouldn't shed any tears if it went away, but as long as they run big races over the stuff, and as long as you have to handicap races with horses coming off the stuff and trying another surface....it is hardly meaningless.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by CSC

Don't take this the wrong way, but given you knew the Bluegrass stats, why did you pick Stately Victor for the derby?

Why did I pick First Dude to win the Preakness at 24/1 odds with Lookin at Lucky picked 2nd and Yawanna Twist picked 3rd?

This years Derby was a joke .. and it basically boiled down to finding a closer at a price. Ice Box was the logical one to take - but I had a serious problem taking him off of a very weak Fla Derby win by a head over Pleasant Prince. Make Music For Me had Rosario .. still, no thanks. Stately Victor was 30/1 on the line, and I had false hope that he was a good dirt on the basis of his 2nd place finish to Winslow Homer in his debut at Saratoga.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Why did I pick First Dude to win the Preakness at 24/1 odds with Lookin at Lucky picked 2nd and Yawanna Twist picked 3rd?

This years Derby was a joke .. and it basically boiled down to finding a closer at a price. Ice Box was the logical one to take - but I had a serious problem taking him off of a very weak Fla Derby win by a head over Pleasant Prince. Make Music For Me had Rosario .. still, no thanks. Stately Victor was 30/1 on the line, and I had false hope that he was a good dirt on the basis of his 2nd place finish to Winslow Homer in his debut at Saratoga.

I'm not saying it was a bad pick, I did have a problem that he won at 42-1 or whatever it was for the Bluegrass and the broodmare Collect the Cash was more known as a turf horse, rather than a dirt one. BTW the totally mediocre Aaron Gryder rode her to atleast a couple of her bigger scores correct for Stronach? I know Maker gets great bang for the buck, it wouldn't have been a pick I would have made but why not in this derby. I just wanted to see your rationale since you are a stats orientated handicapper or it seems that way from your posts.

[Dahoss]

Oh my god.

[Thunder Gulch]

The difference in Keenland and Delmar numbers really is astounding. Hard to find the winners, but some better payouts await those who do.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by CSC

I just wanted to see your rationale since you are a stats orientated handicapper or it seems that way from your posts.

Stats are basically facts that happened and can't be refuted - which is why I use them on a board to support opinions and observations.

I don't even waste my time that often talking about trips .. because people aren't using the same tools as I am in order to - imo - properly watch a race.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Stats are basically facts that happened and can't be refuted - which is why I use them on a board to support opinions and observations.

I don't even waste my time that often talking about trips .. because people aren't using the same tools as I am in order to - imo - properly watch a race.

Fat Charts?

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Stats are basically facts that happened and can't be refuted - which is why I use them on a board to support opinions and observations.

I don't even waste my time that often talking about trips .. because people aren't using the same tools as I am in order to - imo - properly watch a race.

Hard to believe when every other word you write is 'BEYER'.

[Indian Charlie]

Very Clever TFF

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Fat Charts?

Basically just my completed raw pace and final figures for that day combined with a review of the pp's and the days result charts ... but yeah, ... I don't like to discuss them a lot because the way I watch races is influenced by those things.

[smuthg]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Stats are basically facts that happened and can't be refuted - which is why I use them on a board to support opinions and observations.

DrugS, did you look at field size? I would bet that on Poly you have smaller fields along with less winning favorites; which would only serve to support your point that Poly is a totally different creature.