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  #1  
Old 08-13-2011, 03:53 PM
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Default Say what you want about Beyer Speed Figures....
...but the 30-1 winner of the 7th at Arlington had a 6-point last out Beyer edge.
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  #2  
Old 08-13-2011, 04:04 PM
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Thanks for the heads up.
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  #3  
Old 08-13-2011, 04:06 PM
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Hey, I've never seen a horse with an edge that large win at those odds.

Maybe you have.
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Old 08-13-2011, 04:09 PM
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On synthetic, in a turf race . . . .

The horse was not impossible though.
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  #5  
Old 08-13-2011, 04:11 PM
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On synthetic, in a turf race . . . .

The horse was not impossible though.
I see you changed your post from "dirt" to "synthetic". Nice self-catch.
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  #6  
Old 08-13-2011, 04:18 PM
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Hey, I've never seen a horse with an edge that large win at those odds.

Maybe you have.
It was an overlay for sure. I hope you scored big.
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  #7  
Old 08-13-2011, 06:35 PM
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War Emblem in the Derby I believe had a 6 or 7 last out Beyer edge...that was another good one! (I didn't have it)
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Old 08-13-2011, 06:47 PM
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War Emblem and now this, gosh they are really coming back to back
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Old 08-13-2011, 06:48 PM
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War Emblem and now this, gosh they are really coming back to back
haha...yes, this could be a pattern emerging.
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  #10  
Old 08-13-2011, 08:28 PM
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Yea....if you give me a moment, I can find 10 angles to support every winner. Including, I threw a dart and it landed on the 2
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Old 08-13-2011, 09:15 PM
MISTERGEE MISTERGEE is offline
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that is about the only way i could have picked that horse is with a dart, I believe i did notice that the whole field of 10 or 12 were only seperated by about 2 lengths at the finish
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Old 08-13-2011, 09:51 PM
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If you key off her Appalachian race, there is really no other horse in the race that had run anything close to that. She was marooned on the far outside, raced 5 wide, yet still managed to get within 6.5 lengths of the best turf filly in America.
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Old 08-13-2011, 10:48 PM
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2009 BC mile Furthest Land was 20-1, he had a previous BSF that te rest of field was nowhere near...
Last edited by pba1817 : 08-14-2011 at 04:38 AM.
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Old 08-14-2011, 06:00 AM
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Yea....if you give me a moment, I can find 10 angles to support every winner. Including, I threw a dart and it landed on the 2
Don't worry, you're making your dart throwing plenty evident..

As it is, you're about three seconds from needing to find somewhere else to advertise your prowess, so I'd keep attempts to inhibit post-race analysis to a minimum. Unlike you, a lot of people here are interested in learning how to identify betting opportunities, and figuring out why $60 horses got missed is pretty invaluable.
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Last edited by Kasept : 08-14-2011 at 07:06 AM.
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Old 08-14-2011, 06:03 AM
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Originally Posted by pba1817 View Post
2009 BC mile Furthest Land was 20-1, he had a previous BSF that te rest of field was nowhere near...


That's maybe the best recent big race example.
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Old 08-14-2011, 06:57 AM
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I didn't get a bet down, but to Justin's point, Santina Dond was not a difficult filly to include or even key off her Thoro-Graph figs as well. She was a crazy price considering she had gotten back to her top (7.5) last time, and was 3rd/4th 'fastest' among Happy Choice (6.5), Notassharpasuthink (6.75) and Holidaysatthefarm (7.5).

I think what made her float to the 30-1 was how much speed was signed on and her appearance as perhaps the cheapest looking of the speeds. To her credit, she was only beaten 6+ lengths by Winter Memories in April (as I see Kev pointed out). I'd like to hear the story of how she went from Keeneland yearling to Poland.
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Old 08-14-2011, 07:49 AM
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I'd like to hear the story of how she went from Keeneland yearling to Poland.
Poland is the new Dubai. As soon as Pat starts a RacenightKrakow.com website they will be there. Of course they have the advantage of not handicapping themselves with synthetic surfaces AND the Keilbasa stand at Warsaw Park is off the charts
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  #18  
Old 08-14-2011, 09:12 AM
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It's not hard to figure out why the horse was 30/1 --- it was 4th in a starter alw race two-starts back -- and didn't win the day it got the big figure last out.

I'm being super Captain Obvious with this point --- but, whenever a "Top last out fig" horse wins and pays more than 20/1 ... they are typically coming off a big new top and have "cheap" form on the go-back.

Dancing In Silks won the Breeders Cup Sprint less than two years ago at 25/1 as the top Beyer horse coming out of a nose win in a super-fast Cal Cup race.

Obviously War Emblem and Charismatic both won the Kentucky Derby at a huge price as "top last out Beyer" horses -- I think Charismatic was 30/1 ... both of them had very "cheap" form prior to their freakish performances that came from out of nowhere in the Ill Derby (War Emblem's case) and Lexington Stakes (Charismatic's case)
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Old 08-14-2011, 09:14 AM
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I I'd like to hear the story of how she went from Keeneland yearling to Poland.
Given the names of the connections, Vladamir Kazakov owns and Gennadi Dorochenko trains, I can connect the dots from Lexington to Poland.
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  #20  
Old 08-14-2011, 09:16 AM
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Given the names of the connections, Vladamir Kazakov owns and Gennadi Dorochenko trains, I can connect the dots from Lexington to Poland.
I was joking with someone a few months ago -- there was a card at Mountaineer Park that had 3 different imports from Poland racing on it.
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