Two at Toga (2023)

[moses]

I’ll give this a shot again and hope I can make it through the meet. Mythical $2WP bet on each horse. Let’s see if we can turn a profit.

I think there are some interesting horses in the turf sprints and like Steve’s longshot pick of Into Happiness in the 7th (though we’ll see what price she goes off at. I wanted to go elsewhere and focus on the two year olds to start the meet.

First bet: Race 2 - #9 Honey Dijon 10/1. Frankly, I don’t love any of the experienced horses in this race and both of them are likely to garner attention. I expect the Pletcher/Prat horse to get bet as well. Honey Dijon is sired by Girvin who does well with first time starters. The workouts for this horse are very solid and I actually like the outside post as she is unlikely to get bumped around early because of it. Tyler can be aggressive in dirt sprints and hits at a 21/55 clip in sprint races. I expect her to go off above 10/1. She is worth a shot, imo.

Second bet: Race 9 - #2 Becky’s Joker 15/1. Gary Contessa throws this first time starter right into a graded stakes race in the Schuylerville. Based on the workouts and the fact Contessa is tossing her in here, I’m guessing she’s got some speed and talent. She’s supposedly a big, strong horse and she’s going to be an even bigger number. The favorite has won this race once in the last decade. Granted, often the 2nd or 3rd choice has won but there have been a few longshot surprises.

Good luck all.

[theguarantee]

Alright, why not, count me in again.

Best Bet - Race 9: 11 Sugar Treat - I'm looking to take on Wine on Tap here I actually think Saratoga Secret is scarier if she has learned from the first start and isn't so green here. That said, Casse could've shipped this one back to Woodbine which would've been the logical move after a debut win on the synth that wasn't really the easiest of trips. The horse she beat came back to win and really improved the speed fig...maybe they're just taking a shot but you have to think Casse is awfully confident based on her training that she'll handle the dirt and she also has plenty of pedigree to support that.

Best Value - Race 7: 1 Into Happiness - I won't be surprised if I should've flip flopped value/best bet as I'm doubting the 8/1 but DA is usually pretty spot on....either way - like the way she won the last and it seemed like a very shrewd claim and nice spot to bring back. I like the slight cutback and just hope JV can work out a trip from the rail.

Good luck to everyone this meet.

[moses]

I whiffed on the first race. Posting preliminary picks for day 2, subject to change based on the weather/scratches.

First bet: Race 9 - #1 My Sweet Affair, 7/2 ML. Gets Irad back and I think the pace sets up for her to run them down and turn the tables on the ones in here who have beaten her.

Second bet: Race 3 - #2 Modern Love, 15/1 ML. This horse broke her maiden down in Tampa after the race got taken off the turf. She came back on dirt and now is hoping to make her turf debut. That’s an angle I often like to incorporate (first turf race after getting taken off the turf) for some of my longshot bets. She is the 1/2 sister to Competitionofideas, multiple graded stakes placed turf router who also won the American Oaks. I’m not sure the pace sets up for her well…but I do think she’ll like the surface switch. Respect to Royalty Interest here but I’m going to take a shot.

Edit - Day 1 results
Wagered: $8.00
Return: $57.20

[Dahoss]

Fantastic start gentlemen.

I can’t believe Gary Contessa just won a race.

[theguarantee]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Fantastic start gentlemen.

I can’t believe Gary Contessa just won a race.

We all came up with a winner, wonder if that will happen again at the meet haha --

I almost poked fun at Moses picking a Contessa FTS in a graded stake - jokes on me just knocked me out of pick-4 and pick-5 for multiple dollars....

Great pick Moses.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

We all came up with a winner, wonder if that will happen again at the meet haha --

I almost poked fun at Moses picking a Contessa FTS in a graded stake - jokes on me just knocked me out of pick-4 and pick-5 for multiple dollars....

Great pick Moses.

You and me both. Hope he crushed it

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

I whiffed on the first race. Posting preliminary picks for day 2, subject to change based on the weather/scratches.

First bet: Race 9 - #1 My Sweet Affair, 7/2 ML. Gets Irad back and I think the pace sets up for her to run them down and turn the tables on the ones in here who have beaten her.

Second bet: Race 3 - #2 Modern Love, 15/1 ML. This horse broke her maiden down in Tampa after the race got taken off the turf. She came back on dirt and now is hoping to make her turf debut. That’s an angle I often like to incorporate (first turf race after getting taken off the turf) for some of my longshot bets. She is the 1/2 sister to Competitionofideas, multiple graded stakes placed turf router who also won the American Oaks. I’m not sure the pace sets up for her well…but I do think she’ll like the surface switch. Respect to Royalty Interest here but I’m going to take a shot.

Edit - Day 1 results
Wagered: $8.00
Return: $57.20

Not loving the rainout today. I’ll keep Modern Love but going to swap in #1 Run for your honey in the first as the other bet.

[moses]

After Day 2.
$16.00 wagered.
$60.40 returned.

Day 3.

First bet: Race 7 - #3 Bowl of Cherries, 6/1 ML. I think the pace will heat up here and allow Irad to work out a trip. Hoping the dirt form converts to the grass.

Second bet: Race 9 - #4 Ice Chocolat, 20/1 ML. I thought he did not look comfortable early on in the Jaipur but did put in a nice effort in the stretch. I think he’ll like the mile distance here and gotta love the addition of Prat. This is a really tough field and he’s probably not good enough. But. At 20/1, I’ve made worse bets.

[theguarantee]

Wine and Whiskey broke poorly, rushed up and had nothing late. Anna's Arabesque was OK and I thought was needlessly pulled off the pace but was probably second best anyway.

Bet: $16.00
Returned: $26.50

Saturday 7/15:
Best Bet - Race 11: #1 Monet Never - Been waiting for this one to return off the last start. He's got good tactical speed and I thought had very subtle but less than ideal trips in his first two at Gulfstream. He again had a bit of a trip in the last but I'm moreso drawing a line through that event as something clearly went wrong. Blinkers come off today and hopefully that allows him to settle a bit better and finally finish a race off.

Best Value - Race 6: #11 Waterville - Maybe seeing something that isn't there but I wonder if we can get her to show some real improvement today. Her races last year were fine but not exactly anything to write home about however I thought the best of them came on the Toga Inner and this time she's coming in with a race inbetween...a race that will likely have most jumping off but I'd contend was a subtle but horrible trip where nothing went right for her. She starts out chasing a blistering pace three wide...Manny eventually eases off and she doesn't lose a ton of ground but after being used a bit early she now finds herself near the back of the pack, then the 8 drops anchor early right in front of her without much room and Manny decides to pull the trigger early which also necessitates a wide move around the turn. It's quite possible she's just not very fast, but I think a series of minor things conspired against her last out and I want to give this one a final shot at what should be a square price.

Good luck.

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

After Day 2.
$16.00 wagered.
$60.40 returned.

Day 3.

First bet: Race 7 - #3 Bowl of Cherries, 6/1 ML. I think the pace will heat up here and allow Irad to work out a trip. Hoping the dirt form converts to the grass.

Second bet: Race 9 - #4 Ice Chocolat, 20/1 ML. I thought he did not look comfortable early on in the Jaipur but did put in a nice effort in the stretch. I think he’ll like the mile distance here and gotta love the addition of Prat. This is a really tough field and he’s probably not good enough. But. At 20/1, I’ve made worse bets.

Both horses ran pretty well but neither had a shot at winning. Bowl of Cherries picked up 2nd place and $5.90 to save me from losing out for the day.

$24.00 wagered
$66.30 returned

Tomorrow looks like it will be very wet at Saratoga. Preliminary picks below:

First bet: Race 9 - #11 Joey Freshwater (MTO), 9/2.
Second bet: Race 8 - #2 Nakatomi, 5/2.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by moses

Second bet: Race 9 - #2 Becky’s Joker 15/1. Gary Contessa throws this first time starter right into a graded stakes race in the Schuylerville. Based on the workouts and the fact Contessa is tossing her in here, I’m guessing she’s got some speed and talent. She’s supposedly a big, strong horse and she’s going to be an even bigger number. The favorite has won this race once in the last decade. Granted, often the 2nd or 3rd choice has won but there have been a few longshot surprises.

Spectacular work Moise! Congratulations..