Two at Toga (2022)

[moses]

Tomorrow is Saratoga opening day. I’ll be posting my top picks each day with a mythical $2WP bet on each. Let’s see if I can end up with a positive return this year.

There are a few interesting horses on the card for me but one horse I was very impressed with makes it as my best bet.

Best bet: Race 8 - #1 Canisy 4/1 ML, Clement/Castellano. Lost as the favorite last time out but once she got running room, she showed that she can really move. This race has a lot of interesting horses so I wouldn’t want to take less than 4/1 on her…but I plan on building a couple tickets around her as I think she is the one to beat.

Best value: Race 7 - #4 Angitude 8/1 ML, Cox/Rosario. I guess we will see what price she goes off at but 8/1 would be pretty nice for a horse that I think may set a moderate pace or work out a perfect trip by sitting right off of it. I’m not sure if she wants to go a mile but if she does, she’s a major player here.

[Dahoss]

Good luck Moses!

I'll also be returning for another slaughter this year

[moses]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Good luck Moses!

I'll also be returning for another slaughter this year

Thanks. Good luck to you as well. I’m going to try to stay away from the two year olds this year…although was tempted by the Lukas horse in the Schuylerville.

[Conrad]

Originally Posted by moses

Tomorrow is Saratoga opening day. I’ll be posting my top picks each day with a mythical $2WP bet on each. Let’s see if I can end up with a positive return this year.

There are a few interesting horses on the card for me but one horse I was very impressed with makes it as my best bet.

Best bet: Race 8 - #1 Canisy 4/1 ML, Clement/Castellano. Lost as the favorite last time out but once she got running room, she showed that she can really move. This race has a lot of interesting horses so I wouldn’t want to take less than 4/1 on her…but I plan on building a couple tickets around her as I think she is the one to beat.

Best value: Race 7 - #4 Angitude 8/1 ML, Cox/Rosario. I guess we will see what price she goes off at but 8/1 would be pretty nice for a horse that I think may set a moderate pace or work out a perfect trip by sitting right off of it. I’m not sure if she wants to go a mile but if she does, she’s a major player here.

Canisy made my watch list off her debut, and has had a couple of tough trips in her short career.
Overcame a wide trip and came home fast to win her debut. Waited for room last time, switched out and finished very well, only to get swooped by a runner who was left at the gate and came rolling. To be fair though, she was 2nd best.
I'm still in her corner...hoping she gets a better trip from the inside tomorrow.

Good Luck

[moses]

Originally Posted by Conrad

Canisy made my watch list off her debut, and has had a couple of tough trips in her short career.
Overcame a wide trip and came home fast to win her debut. Waited for room last time, switched out and finished very well, only to get swooped by a runner who was left at the gate and came rolling. To be fair though, she was 2nd best.
I'm still in her corner...hoping she gets a better trip from the inside tomorrow.

Good Luck

Thanks and good luck to you. That is a very good betting race and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the trifecta pay a couple hundred bucks. Like you, I really just love what I’ve seen from her so hoping to get solid odds on her.

[knickslions2]

Originally Posted by moses

Thanks and good luck to you. That is a very good betting race and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the trifecta pay a couple hundred bucks. Like you, I really just love what I’ve seen from her so hoping to get solid odds on her.

9 horse could be sneaky at a price

[moses]

Originally Posted by knickslions2

9 horse could be sneaky at a price

Agreed. I looked very long at that horse and just don’t see her as a turf router. I think she’s got talent though. I wouldn’t be shocked to see her run well. Im also intrigued by the 13 if she gets in.

[kp319]

Good Luck to both of you!

[theguarantee]

Best Bet - Race 7) 7 Tarabi - Tepid morning line favorite but I really liked her comeback race despite disappointing as the favorite. Looked like she would need one and couldn’t run down the sharp front runner...like the small stretch out and think she’s primed for a peak effort today.

Best Value - Race 8) 12 Linda’s Gift - Originally was going to go with Snow’s Island but I see dahoss already pointed that one out and as I noted I just feel like with Prat jumping off to the Chad runner that this one is going to get lost in the wagering. I think that last effort was sneaky good as nothing really went right and while I do like Canisy and will probably have some exactas using both, Linda’s Gift seems likely to be a much better price today.

Good luck to everyone, always awesome when Saratoga is back.

[moses]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

Glad to see you posting Moses. I think Dahoss deserves his own thread (if he chooses) but hope you’ll let me tag on here to avoid too much clutter in the forum.

I think last year I posted about 116 worth of wagers that returned around 132 but I missed a bunch of days. My goal this year is to post everyday and post a profit. Pretty sure I already know my plays for tomorrow but have a few more replays to watch and will be back in the morning. I will say I do think Canisy is interesting...won’t be my pick but I totally get it. That said I think the 12 Linda’s Gift is a little interesting at a much bigger price...and wondering if the 13 draws in and presumably Prat jumps on there maybe Lezcano climbs back aboard and drifts up from the 10/1 ML? I get that Canisy found trouble and ran right past her in the last but Linda was rank early and Jose totally strangled. Slow pace, still ran faster than the 1 who I think gets bet off that trip....

Originally Posted by theguarantee

Best Bet - Race 7) 7 Tarabi - Tepid morning line favorite but I really liked her comeback race despite disappointing as the favorite. Looked like she would need one and couldn’t run down the sharp front runner...like the small stretch out and think she’s primed for a peak effort today.

Best Value - Race 8) 12 Linda’s Gift - Originally was going to go with Snow’s Island but I see dahoss already pointed that one out and as I noted I just feel like with Prat jumping off to the Chad runner that this one is going to get lost in the wagering. I think that last effort was sneaky good as nothing really went right and while I do like Canisy and will probably have some exactas using both, Linda’s Gift seems likely to be a much better price today.

Good luck to everyone, always awesome when Saratoga is back.

Good luck and I don't mind.

On Linda's Gift, note that Prat is off and Franco is on now. Aside from that, I almost ended up on her when first looking at the card. She passed Canisy in the stretch but once Canisy got into open space, she blew by Linda's Gift like she was standing still. I couldn't get past that...although I think she's got a shot and definitely do like the price she'll be at, I just couldn't end up on her.

[theguarantee]

Originally Posted by moses

Good luck and I don't mind.

On Linda's Gift, note that Prat is off and Franco is on now. Aside from that, I almost ended up on her when first looking at the card. She passed Canisy in the stretch but once Canisy got into open space, she blew by Linda's Gift like she was standing still. I couldn't get past that...although I think she's got a shot and definitely do like the price she'll be at, I just couldn't end up on her.

Correct analysis, Race was a bit strange after the late scratch but still... Good luck this meet always appreciate seeing other handicappers analysis.

[gamblin4ever]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

Best Bet - Race 7) 7 Tarabi - Tepid morning line favorite but I really liked her comeback race despite disappointing as the favorite. Looked like she would need one and couldn’t run down the sharp front runner...like the small stretch out and think she’s primed for a peak effort today.

Best Value - Race 8) 12 Linda’s Gift - Originally was going to go with Snow’s Island but I see dahoss already pointed that one out and as I noted I just feel like with Prat jumping off to the Chad runner that this one is going to get lost in the wagering. I think that last effort was sneaky good as nothing really went right and while I do like Canisy and will probably have some exactas using both, Linda’s Gift seems likely to be a much better price today.

Good luck to everyone, always awesome when Saratoga is back.

Nice call on Tarabi

[theguarantee]

Originally Posted by gamblin4ever

Nice call on Tarabi

Thanks gamblin. Should’ve stuck with Snows Island but oh well. Should also say hoss, mo and myself provided some winners today. Not sure how many people are paying attention but if anyone benefited that’s great. It’s a fun task for my favorite meet. Hopefully we can all provide some decent opinions.

[gamblin4ever]

Originally Posted by moses

Tomorrow is Saratoga opening day. I’ll be posting my top picks each day with a mythical $2WP bet on each. Let’s see if I can end up with a positive return this year.

There are a few interesting horses on the card for me but one horse I was very impressed with makes it as my best bet.

Best bet: Race 8 - #1 Canisy 4/1 ML, Clement/Castellano. Lost as the favorite last time out but once she got running room, she showed that she can really move. This race has a lot of interesting horses so I wouldn’t want to take less than 4/1 on her…but I plan on building a couple tickets around her as I think she is the one to beat.

Best value: Race 7 - #4 Angitude 8/1 ML, Cox/Rosario. I guess we will see what price she goes off at but 8/1 would be pretty nice for a horse that I think may set a moderate pace or work out a perfect trip by sitting right off of it. I’m not sure if she wants to go a mile but if she does, she’s a major player here.

Nice call on best bet

[Conrad]

Originally Posted by moses

Tomorrow is Saratoga opening day. I’ll be posting my top picks each day with a mythical $2WP bet on each. Let’s see if I can end up with a positive return this year.

There are a few interesting horses on the card for me but one horse I was very impressed with makes it as my best bet.

Best bet: Race 8 - #1 Canisy 4/1 ML, Clement/Castellano. Lost as the favorite last time out but once she got running room, she showed that she can really move. This race has a lot of interesting horses so I wouldn’t want to take less than 4/1 on her…but I plan on building a couple tickets around her as I think she is the one to beat.

Best value: Race 7 - #4 Angitude 8/1 ML, Cox/Rosario. I guess we will see what price she goes off at but 8/1 would be pretty nice for a horse that I think may set a moderate pace or work out a perfect trip by sitting right off of it. I’m not sure if she wants to go a mile but if she does, she’s a major player here.

There it is...Canisy

Smart ride by Javi to jump that field early, esp after the #4 scratched.
Nice pick.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by moses

Tomorrow is Saratoga opening day. I’ll be posting my top picks each day with a mythical $2WP bet on each. Let’s see if I can end up with a positive return this year.

There are a few interesting horses on the card for me but one horse I was very impressed with makes it as my best bet.

Best bet: Race 8 - #1 Canisy 4/1 ML, Clement/Castellano. Lost as the favorite last time out but once she got running room, she showed that she can really move. This race has a lot of interesting horses so I wouldn’t want to take less than 4/1 on her…but I plan on building a couple tickets around her as I think she is the one to beat.

Best value: Race 7 - #4 Angitude 8/1 ML, Cox/Rosario. I guess we will see what price she goes off at but 8/1 would be pretty nice for a horse that I think may set a moderate pace or work out a perfect trip by sitting right off of it. I’m not sure if she wants to go a mile but if she does, she’s a major player here.

Nice Start

[moses]

Originally Posted by gamblin4ever

Nice call on best bet

Originally Posted by Conrad

There it is...Canisy

Smart ride by Javi to jump that field early, esp after the #4 scratched.
Nice pick.

Originally Posted by jms62

Nice Start

Thanks. Angitude almost held on for 2nd but just wasn’t good enough.

After Day 1
Record: 2 1-0-1
Total wagered: $8.00
Total returned: $14.30

[moses]

Reiterating my picks for today and posting Saturday's picks:

Friday, July 15
Best Bet: Race 7 - #6 I Am the Cash Man 8/1 ML, Progno/Worrie.
Best Value: Race 9 - #12 Sanctuary City 20/1 ML, Ferraro/Carmouche.

(Commentary above)

Saturday, July 16

Best Bet: Race 9 - #4 Analogy 10/1 ML, Pletcher/Carmouche. I'm not sure exactly what this horse's preferred running style is as he won on the lead two back but looked pretty good coming from off the pace in his last race. The versatility is a plus. Note that the runner up two back broke his maiden next time out (including over yesterday's winner Snow's Island) and followed that up with an allowance win over Easter (who Motion thought highly enough of to run in the Man O War.) I don't see much difference between this horse and a horse like Credit Event - although Credit Event will be a shorter price. ML favorite Fort Ticonderoga may be tough as the runner up from last time out, Growth Capital, seems to be a pretty good horse. But I think is worth taking a shot against.

Best Value: Race 3 - #11 Jocosity 10/1 ML, Mott/I.Ortiz. I know that conventional wisdom is to bet against Mott first time starters but I'm playing this horse off of a gut instinct that Mott has brought a talented group of horses to Saratoga and is looking to make some noise. Chad Brown's Robyn and Eli may be the horse to beat here and far be it for me to question Chad Brown's strategy, but I'm not crazy about her being moved from sprint to route to sprint...now back to a route. Last out, she lost to a 40/1 horse that had only finished in the money one other time in her career. So I'm not really crazy about betting her. Seeing Mott and Irad team up here, I'm banking on this horse having some talent.

[moses]

I want to add - the Saturday card is really nice. There are probably 5 or 6 horses that I have a lot of interest in. Some in the 5/2 to 9/2 range though. Rally Squirrel in Race 5 would be my alternate best bet...but really just thought it was worth taking a shot on a few prices.

[theguarantee]

Friday, 7/15:

Best Value Race 5: 4 Bali's Shade - A bit of a stab here but I wanted to look for an outsider in this field. Al's Prince may well win but to me will be an underlay. Going through the alternates I just kept coming away feeling empty. If you draw a line through the yielding race 2 back Bali's Shade has the exact same form as Juulstone but is triple the price. Is bred to handle the stretchout and could be dangerous on the front end here in my opinion. Hoping for an aggressive ride.

Best Bet Race 9: 1 Set Piece - Not sure if this is going to be similar to yesterday where I don't get the ML price but Aragona tends to be good and while I tried to make a case for a bunch of these I just ultimately kept coming back to Set Piece being too good for these. Hoping Public Sector takes enough money to hold a decent enough price for Set Piece as it seems a lot of people like PS today. I just think Set Piece will motor by them late, I'm mainly using as a single in multis but if it seems like I can get 5/2 or better I probably will be placing a win bet.

Good luck.