4/14: Aqueduct ($45k P6 C/O)

[Kasept]

AQUEDUCT


POST-SCRATCHES


4th: MCLM-$40k, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P6, P3, DD)

Best Value: #5 Belleshazza 4th
Next Best: #2 Masabeeh 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Synonymous WON ($8.00)
Super Add: #3 Candlestick Maker 5th


5th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f-Outer (P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Aside from the P6 and P5 (which starts here), a really fun betting race. Favored #10 Palace Gossip (7-2) can win, but she'll have to withstand plenty of pace pressure. Will use defensively..

Best Value: #3 Flip My Id 10-1 8th
Next Best: #5 Fontanafredda 6-1 4th
Exotics Use: #9 Uncle's Gem 6-1 6th
Super Add: #6 Masterof the Tunes 10-1 5th


6th: MCLM/$20k, 3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD)

Yikes. Murky basket o' coconuts..

Most Likely: #5 Bird Ruler 2-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 Nicholas James 5-2 WON ($5.80)
Exotics Use: #4 Alite 4-1 2nd
Super Add: #3 My Boy Colton 7-2 4th


7th: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 1m (P3, DD)

SCR #4 Exotic West who won the Top Flight Sunday.. Not sure why Default Protection (5-2) is 3rd choice here as Feb. effort is as good or better than anything Make Mischief (9-5) or Cafe Society (2-1) shows on their pages..

Most Likely: #1 Default Protection 5-2 4th
Next Best: #2 Make Mischief 9-5 WON ($4.70)
Exotics Use: #6 Cafe Society 2-1 DH-2nd


8th: OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f-T (DD)

Chad/Brant entry has Kuramata in field and Flop Shot perched as 1st AE and either/both are most likely here..

Most Likely: #2e Brown/Brant entry 8-5 WON/3rd ($3.50)
Best Value: #8 Buy Land and See 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Highland Chief 9-2 9th
Exotics Use: #10 Worth a Shot 6-1 8th


9th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 6f-Outer

Casse AE #14 Sinfully Sweet would be the key if she were to make it in. In moderate looking group, #3 Royal Dancer (12-1) has price appeal with hustling bug Gomez on a Nevin firster that has pedigree to take to turf sprinting..

Best Value: #3 Royal Dancer 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Smokin' Hot Kitty 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #11 Crosstalk 4-1 2nd
Super Add: #5 Valentia Island 8-1 7th


P6 Grid:

4: 5 (A), - (B), 2-4 (C)
5: 3-5 (A), 6-9 (B), 10 (C)
6: 5-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 1 (A), 2 (B), 6 (C)
8: 2 (A), - (B), 5-8 (C)
9: 1-3-11 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x4x2x2x1x3 = $48
All A's: 1x2x2x1x1x3 = $12
Backups ($66): $24 (C-A-A-A-A-A) + $6 (A-C-A-A-A-A) + $12 (A-A-A-C-A-A) + $24 (A-A-A-A-C-A)


P5 Grid:

5: 3-5 (A), 6-9-10 (B), - (C)
6: 5-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 1-2-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 2 (A), - (B), 5-8 (C)
9: 1-3-11 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x2x3x1x3 = 90 x .50 = $45
All A's: 2x2x1x1x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backups: $36 (A-A-A-C-A)


P4 Grid:

6: 3-5-5-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 1-2-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 2 (A), - (B), 5-8 (C)
9: 1-3-11 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple ($1 All A's): 4x3x1x3 = $36
.50 Backup: $36 (A-A-C-A)


Good luck!
Steve

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by UncleBenelli

The 9th race would have been the only race with sandwich opportunity,

It would have been a profitable trifecta, but the Ticket structure would have lossed. Most difficult aspect of building the ticket is correctly slotting the correct numbers,

Very High Probability that the ticket structure would have been,

3,11/1,5,?/all
question Mark on the 3rd horse in the two slot, as I did not handicap the races yesterday,

If Steve does not have a 5th horse to his selections, I insert what I call the Casper Pick. Since didnt cap, no idea who that Casper Horse would have been.
Possible that Casper could have been the 8, in which case then the ticket would have hit, twice!

Just an example, so that I can get criticized again, but I will call out a losing ticket due to wrong ticket structure, as I do not win all the time, and often times have left with ass in hand,. Its gamblling, sometimes it hits sometimes, you miss one on bad ticket structure, incorrect picks or flat dead ass wrong.

The key, is to select the races with highest probability of bombs ducking in,. How I tend to Identify that is through Steve's capping.
If he has two of 4 horses selected with short odds, I move on, as the large payout is really not probable and a waste of money to try.

However, when Steve has selections that have all healthy odds, then I see a large field, then the opportunities arise. I know he is never far off, and when he misses often times its a large price that squeezes him out.

After years of watching and observing his selections,
I took Mannys trifecta formula, Steve's handicapping, and Gordon Jones's, ticket structure through squares, circles and triangles (very similar to ABC).

I found very quickly for this to be a profitable approach. The key is the Casper selection. and then having the ticket structured correctly.

I have done this long enough and consistently enough to know, whether the ticket would have been correct.

The above 9th is that example

If Steve has,

Most Likely- #3
Next best - #6
best value - #9
Exotics - #1

Then I have to go in and find the Last Horse, Often times I just use the best probable price, if I am not with Manuel. The Casper Horse needs to be a price. or its no bet. finding that 5th horse is really important. Unless steve caps 5 usually seen as the Super add. So, most likely ticket structure would have been,
3,9/1,6, ?/all

For shorter bank roll or only targeting the bomb one can save on two tickets, by not utilizing the ALL button in the 3rd slot, this way it is only four tickets, except you will lose possibility of cashing it twice.

So lets say the Casper Horse was the #5,

4 tickets would be,

3,9/all/ 1,5,6
All/3,9/1,5,6
All/1,5,6/3,9
1,5,6/all/3,9

If you box it all the way, obviously you would have two more tickets added
In 3,9/1,5,6/All, and 1,5,6/3,9/all


Everyone have a fantastic Good Friday. As Good will make you better, and your better will become your best! that would equate to Best Bettor.

Good Luck all, may god bless your weekend!

You've said multiple times that all of your winnings are documented. Fifth time I'm asking now....where can people see this documentation?

I know one thing. In discussing your winning Masters pick, you said "Really needed that one." And "Felt good to finally be right."

[knickslions2]

Originally Posted by UncleBenelli

The 9th race would have been the only race with sandwich opportunity,

It would have been a profitable trifecta, but the Ticket structure would have lossed. Most difficult aspect of building the ticket is correctly slotting the correct numbers,

Very High Probability that the ticket structure would have been,

3,11/1,5,?/all
question Mark on the 3rd horse in the two slot, as I did not handicap the races yesterday,

If Steve does not have a 5th horse to his selections, I insert what I call the Casper Pick. Since didnt cap, no idea who that Casper Horse would have been.
Possible that Casper could have been the 8, in which case then the ticket would have hit, twice!

Just an example, so that I can get criticized again, but I will call out a losing ticket due to wrong ticket structure, as I do not win all the time, and often times have left with ass in hand,. Its gamblling, sometimes it hits sometimes, you miss one on bad ticket structure, incorrect picks or flat dead ass wrong.

The key, is to select the races with highest probability of bombs ducking in,. How I tend to Identify that is through Steve's capping.
If he has two of 4 horses selected with short odds, I move on, as the large payout is really not probable and a waste of money to try.

However, when Steve has selections that have all healthy odds, then I see a large field, then the opportunities arise. I know he is never far off, and when he misses often times its a large price that squeezes him out.

After years of watching and observing his selections,
I took Mannys trifecta formula, Steve's handicapping, and Gordon Jones's, ticket structure through squares, circles and triangles (very similar to ABC).

I found very quickly for this to be a profitable approach. The key is the Casper selection. and then having the ticket structured correctly.

I have done this long enough and consistently enough to know, whether the ticket would have been correct.

The above 9th is that example

If Steve has,

Most Likely- #3
Next best - #6
best value - #9
Exotics - #1

Then I have to go in and find the Last Horse, Often times I just use the best probable price, if I am not with Manuel. The Casper Horse needs to be a price. or its no bet. finding that 5th horse is really important. Unless steve caps 5 usually seen as the Super add. So, most likely ticket structure would have been,
3,9/1,6, ?/all

For shorter bank roll or only targeting the bomb one can save on two tickets, by not utilizing the ALL button in the 3rd slot, this way it is only four tickets, except you will lose possibility of cashing it twice.

So lets say the Casper Horse was the #5,

4 tickets would be,

3,9/all/ 1,5,6
All/3,9/1,5,6
All/1,5,6/3,9
1,5,6/all/3,9

If you box it all the way, obviously you would have two more tickets added
In 3,9/1,5,6/All, and 1,5,6/3,9/all


Everyone have a fantastic Good Friday. As Good will make you better, and your better will become your best! that would equate to Best Bettor.

Good Luck all, may god bless your weekend!

Lets say the truth. Using Byks picks you would have had 1,3 in the first leg not 3,11 thus if you by some miracle you added the 8 in second leg you only hit once. You would have bet $216 to win $307 which is terrible odds. Again lets see your picks before the races go off not after. I can hit every tri on a simple $.50 bet after the race.

[blackthroatedwind]

I'm still trying to figure out what "lossed" means.

You have to give this lunatic credit for one thing....he has managed to unite enemies.

[knickslions2]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I'm still trying to figure out what "lossed" means.

You have to give this lunatic credit for one thing....he has managed to unite enemies.

[blackthroatedwind]

You can't bet like this at a 25% takeout rate and not get crushed in the long run ( if not sooner ). You are giving up so much edge that you will get completely destroyed unless you are getting a huge rebate and have a decent opinion....and even then it's not likely.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

You can't bet like this at a 25% takeout rate and not get crushed in the long run ( if not sooner ). You are giving up so much edge that you will get completely destroyed unless you are getting a huge rebate and have a decent opinion....and even then it's not likely.

Stop trying to inject logic here please.

He has Manny's formula, Casper horse and Gordon Jones structure. World domination can't be too far off.

[Alabama Stakes]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

You can't bet like this at a 25% takeout rate and not get crushed in the long run ( if not sooner ). You are giving up so much edge that you will get completely destroyed unless you are getting a huge rebate and have a decent opinion....and even then it's not likely.

Maybe NYRA should drop that exorbitant takeout to 20% or even less.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I'm still trying to figure out what "lossed" means.

You have to give this lunatic credit for one thing....he has managed to unite enemies.

It's the opposite of winned.

Duh

[knickslions2]

Also using cuban sandwich on the other races he posted maybe you win races 4, 6 and 8 thus betting $450 to win $78 (loss of $372) but you got skunked on race 5 for a bet of $216. If I include you saying you won race 9 (positive $91) you daily total was a loss of $497. I can't see this betting strategy even coming close to winning in long run.