The hype on Top Billing has gone overboard

[letswastemoney]

He is all I ever read about on various social media sites. Yes, he's a closer. His trainer is old school.

He ran three good races, but Commissioner beat him fair and square two starts back, and I doubt Commissioner would be the favorite against Top Billing if they met on the Derby trail again as I don't read that much hype on him.

Going forward, Top Billing is going to be overbet in every race.

[RockHardTen1985]

I believe he is just OK right now, but obviously has room for improvement. I will add this, I don't like anything that ran behind him yesterday. Monopolize proved he sucks, Surfing USA will be a sprinter. Nothing else from that race is anything.

[blackthroatedwind]

I'm sure the hype is a bit unwarranted, but I think he's a better horse than Commissioner.

That might mean absolutely nothing, however.

[Indian Charlie]

He was much the best against Commissioner.

He will clearly relish added distance.

It's likely he's a better race horse than his much much more hyped stablemate, Honor Code.


This horse has the look of something that could be pretty rare.

[letswastemoney]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

He was much the best against Commissioner.

He will clearly relish added distance.

It's likely he's a better race horse than his much much more hyped stablemate, Honor Code.


This horse has the look of something that could be pretty rare.

Commissioner has more tactical speed, and it's not like he won't love the added distance either with A.P. Indy as his sire. I could see how people think Top Billing is better, but not that much better since Commissioner simply holds a 1-0 record against him.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

Commissioner has more tactical speed, and it's not like he won't love the added distance either with A.P. Indy as his sire. I could see how people think Top Billing is better, but not that much better since Commissioner simply holds a 1-0 record against him.

I'll give you that Commissioner has more tactical speed. That is the one real big strike I have against Top Billing, his utter lack of speed.

He does, however, have a pretty swift turn of foot.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

He was much the best against Commissioner.

He will clearly relish added distance.

It's likely he's a better race horse than his much much more hyped stablemate, Honor Code.


This horse has the look of something that could be pretty rare.

I disagree that he was "much the best" against Commissioner.

[RockHardTen1985]

Honor Code is a monster. I think the top two from the Holy Bull really flatter him.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I disagree that he was "much the best" against Commissioner.

Well, he had a much tougher trip and just about everything went against him.

I don't know what you saw.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

He was much the best against Commissioner.

He will clearly relish added distance.

It's likely he's a better race horse than his much much more hyped stablemate, Honor Code.


This horse has the look of something that could be pretty rare.

You’re a bit sloppy. Its understandable, since you have just recently returned from a long layoff. And like I said in the recent PM, I’m glad you’re feeling better. Now back to business. What makes Honor Code more hyped? I don’t think he is at all. At the least why can’t they both be very good. I think that’s most likely the real case here. Shug has two really good 3yr olds. Honor Code is clearly more accomplished. He just missed in a Grade 1 by a neck in his second career start. The horse who beat him that day was, at worst second best in the BC Juvenile. Honor Code then returned to win a Grade 2, beating two horses who came back to really flatter him yesterday. One of those horse, Cairo Prince, is a very serious horse. As for Top Billing, he broke his maiden at Laurel vs nothing. He beat Commissioner who I think is pretty good, so lll give him some props for that. But then yesterday he beat nothing. If anything Top Billing is way more hyped after yesterday. IMO this is the best crop since the Hard Spun, Curlin, Street Sense crop. There are a bunch of really good 3yr olds this year, but I believe Top Billing is the most over hyped as of right now. If you want to talk about strictly hype, look at the two 3yr olds you have hyped up on this website. They have to be the most hyped. Shared Belief has never raced on dirt and is now hurt, and Top Billing has beat one decent horse in 3 races.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

He may have run a better race, but was not much the best. His "tough" trip consisted of being behind a modest pace and being VERY briefly in tight in upper stretch. While the things that went against him may have explained the eventual margin of defeat, I try to reserve the phrase as "much the best" for situations where a horse is faced with hurdles far more severe than those that Top Billing faced that afternoon.

He's a really nice horse, but because of his pedigree, his catchy running style and his universally beloved trainer, he is frighteningly overrated at this point.

Ok, I guess we are quibbling on semantics. He was the best in the race is what I mostly was saying, though I do believe he is a much better horse than the winner.

"Much the best" is an overused phrase.

His pedigree, while interesting, isn't that exciting in my eyes.

I HATE his running style, and almost never like horses that run like he does. I do, however, think he's got a terrific turn of foot.

His trainer? I think he's overrated and does receive hype.

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

You’re a bit sloppy. Its understandable, since you have just recently returned from a long layoff. And like I said in the recent PM, I’m glad you’re feeling better. Now back to business. What makes Honor Code more hyped? I don’t think he is at all. At the least why can’t they both be very good. I think that’s most likely the real case here. Shug has two really good 3yr olds. Honor Code is clearly more accomplished. He just missed in a Grade 1 by a neck in his second career start. The horse who beat him that day was, at worst second best in the BC Juvenile. Honor Code then returned to win a Grade 2, beating two horses who came back to really flatter him yesterday. One of those horse, Cairo Prince, is a very serious horse. As for Top Billing, he broke his maiden at Laurel vs nothing. He beat Commissioner who I think is pretty good, so lll give him some props for that. But then yesterday he beat nothing. If anything Top Billing is way more hyped after yesterday. IMO this is the best crop since the Hard Spun, Curlin, Street Sense crop. There are a bunch of really good 3yr olds this year, but I believe Top Billing is the most over hyped as of right now. If you want to talk about strictly hype, look at the two 3yr olds you have hyped up on this website. They have to be the most hyped. Shared Belief has never raced on dirt and is now hurt, and Top Billing has beat one decent horse in 3 races.

Where to start?

You may interpret me as being sloppy, when it's really more just being lazy about explaining my views on Shared Belief and Top Billing.

I've said all along that Shared Belief is most likely unsound and I am not even the slightest bit surprised he's already having issues.

Whopdee doo about him not running on dirt yet. Here's a list for you, see if you can identify what these following horses have in common. By the way, I'm fairly confident this horse will like dirt anyways, but here goes...

2006 Barbaro
2007 Street Sense
2008 Big Brown
2009 Mine That Bird
2011 Animal Kingdom
2012 I'll Have Another

Now to Top Billing.

What makes him more overhyped than Honor Code?? For starters, how about otherwise sharp people thinking that he deserved the Eclipse more than Shared Belief? All he did was win his MSW, come in second with a really nice showing to a pretty decent horse in the Champagne, and then he won ugly in the Remsen.

Granted, Top Billing hasn't beaten anything yet, but trust me when I say this, they have not cranked him up yet. I'm also almost certain that the barn considers him to be the better of the two horses.

Did you watch his race Saturday? I thought I saw, despite a slower time, a significantly more impressive performance than what Cairo Prince did later on in the card. This horse has so much upside it's scary.

By the way, has anyone ever seen those silks before that his jock had on for that race? I didn't recognize them. Did Farish change his silks?

Contrary to what you feel I believe about Honor Code, he was my earliest Derby pick (until the Hollywood Prevue), so I do like him.

I think it's a bad sign that he has only one workout (3F) this month/year, and see him as an unlikely threat for the Derby.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

You’re a bit sloppy.

He beat Commissioner who I think is pretty good, so lll give him some props for that. .

Just sayin dude.

[letswastemoney]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I'm sure the hype is a bit unwarranted, but I think he's a better horse than Commissioner.

That might mean absolutely nothing, however.

Once they looked each other in the eye, Commissioner did well to fight him off. I would need to see them race each other again to come to the conclusion that Top Billing is better, although maybe the tables will turn.

[RockHardTen1985]

As of today, I think Cairo Prince is the most underrated. We are all talking about the Shug horses, or Shared Belief. But Prince is blowing races open and winning off easily, his only loss being too a horse most people have very highly rated, Honor Code. Only issue I see is he got better before everyone, and everyone else will catch up. Hopefully he continues to move forward.

[Indian Charlie]

I may benefit from watching Cairo Prince's race the other day one more time, but to me, the end part of the race wasn't all that pretty.

[FATPIANO]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

As of today, I think Cairo Prince is the most underrated. We are all talking about the Shug horses, or Shared Belief. But Prince is blowing races open and winning off easily, his only loss being too a horse most people have very highly rated, Honor Code. Only issue I see is he got better before everyone, and everyone else will catch up. Hopefully he continues to move forward.

DITTO

[letswastemoney]

Well...what does everyone think now? I know he had a tough post, but his lack of early speed really sucks.

[tanner12oz]

He has a turn of foot but ya gotta win...he might be a clunk up superfecta type

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

Well...what does everyone think now? I know he had a tough post, but his lack of early speed really sucks.

His trip today was more a function of the rider not wanting to lose 10 lengths around the first turn more than a lack of any early speed. He was yanked back to go to the rail. It was a no win situation. I think he was *maybe* best today, but how good does that even make him?

[cakes44]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

His trip today was more a function of the rider not wanting to lose 10 lengths around the first turn more than a lack of any early speed. He was yanked back to go to the rail. It was a no win situation. I think he was *maybe* best today, but how good does that even make him?

Couldn't agree more on all points. He seemed to break well enough, but what good does it do in those 1 1/16 races at Gulfstream if it's gonna get you parked 5 wide? He might have been best, but like you said, no idea how good that is. Not that it necessarily takes some super animal to win the Florida Derby and/or Kentucky Derby, as we saw last year.