Change of Plans for Lava Man

[Rupert Pupkin]

Doug O'Neill had originally planned on running Lava Man in the Clement Hirsch at 1 1/4 miles on the grass. He wanted to run there because that would have given him 5 weeks before the BC Classic. But when he realized that he was going to have to face the The Tin Man in there, he came to his senses and decided to run in the Goodwood instead. The Goodwood is 1 1/8 miles on the dirt and is 4 weeks before the BC Classic. I think O'Neill made a good choice. the Goodwood will be a much easier race.

[Gander]

Would have been a great thing to see Rupert (Lava Man vs Tin Man).
People on here just dont give either one of these the credit they deserve. I would love to see both win on BC Day. Its not that far fetched either.

[2MinsToPost]

I have a bet with Oracle about Lava. All I am worried about. My highlight of the day will be when Lava hits the board in November

[ninetoone]

The Tin Man won't be on the lead w/a 1:15.18 in the Breeder's Cup, I don't see him winning, JMO

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by ninetoone

The Tin Man won't be on the lead w/a 1:15.18 in the Breeder's Cup, I don't see him winning, JMO

He doesn't need to be on the lead to win. He's won plenty of times from off the pace.

[ninetoone]

He hasn't won from off the pace in the BC...

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by 2MinsToPost

I have a bet with Oracle about Lava. All I am worried about. My highlight of the day will be when Lava hits the board in November

Good luck, he's not hitting the board.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

It's a big mistake to run him within 6 weeks of the Breeder's Cup.This horse will do best with atleast 6 weeks rest before a huge race like this.Do you remember when he almost got beat at Hollywood? That's the way he will look if he doesn't have enough time between races.

[repent]

oh wow.
The Slow Man has tried the BCT before(when he was actually a better horse) and failed miserably.

he got away with a terribly slow pace and won a pretty weak Grade 1 10f race.
I know its not good to say that about the Arlington Million but thats what it was this year.

this is not a legitimate US threat.
our only shot is English Channel.
I originally doubted him, but he has been excellent as a 4YO this year.
problem is, he probably is simply not good enough to run with the top 10 European horses at 12f and Im guessing at least 2 or 3 of those will make the trip to run in the BCT.
thats just the reality of the situation.


Repent

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by repent

oh wow.
The Slow Man has tried the BCT before(when he was actually a better horse) and failed miserably.

he got away with a terribly slow pace and won a pretty weak Grade 1 10f race.
I know its not good to say that about the Arlington Million but thats what it was this year.

this is not a legitimate US threat.
our only shot is English Channel.
I originally doubted him, but he has been excellent as a 4YO this year.
problem is, he probably is simply not good enough to run with the top 10 European horses at 12f and Im guessing at least 2 or 3 of those will make the trip to run in the BCT.
thats just the reality of the situation.


Repent

To say The Tin Man was a better horse the last time he tried the BCT is absurd. The last time he ran in the BCT, his two races leading up to the BCT were a 6th place finish in the Arlington Million and a 7th place finish in the Jim Murray.

This year he comes into the BCT off a win in the Arlington Million and a win in the American Handicap.

[Round Pen]

Not saying that the Tin Man is my choice but just remember 1998 at Churchill Downs on Breeders Cup Day THere was a Little Colt Called Bucks Boy that put them all to Sleep on ther front end that day and wired the field in the BC Turf. So to say he can't set Slow fractions again is totally not true.

[repent]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

To say The Tin Man was a better horse the last time he tried the BCT is absurd. The last time he ran in the BCT, his two races leading up to the BCT were a 6th place finish in the Arlington Million and a 7th place finish in the Jim Murray.

This year he comes into the BCT off a win in the Arlington Million and a win in the American Handicap.

this is being discussed in another thread,
but clearly I was referring to 2002 when he was in better form.
set slow fractions and lost to a somewhat weak BCT field.
he has no chance this year, but please, bet as much as you possibly can on him.

Repent

[Honu]

Originally Posted by repent

oh wow.
The Slow Man has tried the BCT before(when he was actually a better horse) and failed miserably.

he got away with a terribly slow pace and won a pretty weak Grade 1 10f race.
I know its not good to say that about the Arlington Million but thats what it was this year.

this is not a legitimate US threat.
our only shot is English Channel.
I originally doubted him, but he has been excellent as a 4YO this year.
problem is, he probably is simply not good enough to run with the top 10 European horses at 12f and Im guessing at least 2 or 3 of those will make the trip to run in the BCT.
thats just the reality of the situation.


Repent

Funny how you can call a horse that has made almost 2 million dollars this year slow. As for the European contention well he seemed to have his way with all of them in Dubai except for David Junior who is undefeated this year.
He very well may not win , but to call him slow when all the rest of the riders in the Arlington million "let" him go that slow is just silly.
I bet any horse owner on this board would love to have a slow horse like him .

[repent]

Originally Posted by Honu

Funny how you can call a horse that has made almost 2 million dollars this year slow. As for the European contention well he seemed to have his way with all of them in Dubai except for David Junior who is undefeated this year.
He very well may not win , but to call him slow when all the rest of the riders in the Arlington million "let" him go that slow is just silly.
I bet any horse owner on this board would love to have a slow horse like him .

lmao,
dude, the horses he ran against in the Dubai Duty Free at like 8.5f are not the same horses he will face in the BCTurf.

and that earnings number is inflated b/c of the sizes of the purses on Dubai World Cup day.

thats like saying Brass Hat is one of the best dirt horses in the world b/c of the money he would have won(if not disqualified) for running 2nd in the DWC.

those earnings are inflated.

Repent

[horseofcourse]

Originally Posted by repent

oh wow.
The Slow Man has tried the BCT before(when he was actually a better horse) and failed miserably.

he got away with a terribly slow pace and won a pretty weak Grade 1 10f race.
I know its not good to say that about the Arlington Million but thats what it was this year.

this is not a legitimate US threat.
our only shot is English Channel.
I originally doubted him, but he has been excellent as a 4YO this year.
problem is, he probably is simply not good enough to run with the top 10 European horses at 12f and Im guessing at least 2 or 3 of those will make the trip to run in the BCT.
thats just the reality of the situation.


Repent

The Slow Man finished 4th in the 2002 BC Turf as the 2nd highest price in the 8 horse field?? I am not sure how that is considered failing miserably picking up a $135,000 check for his efforts. The Tin Man has won every race he has entered in the US this year and finished 2nd in Dubai. He is by all accounts better this year or at least winning at a very high percentage.

[repent]

Originally Posted by horseofcourse

The Slow Man finished 4th in the 2002 BC Turf as the 2nd highest price in the 8 horse field?? I am not sure how that is considered failing miserably picking up a $135,000 check for his efforts. The Tin Man has won every race he has entered in the US this year and finished 2nd in Dubai. He is by all accounts better this year or at least winning at a very high percentage.

you dont?
purse money earned is not an exact representitive of how well a horse runs in a given race.
he set slow fractions against a weak running of the BCT and he LOST.
he did not look good in that race.

please review the charts of the race or just watch the tape.


now,
if you want to play him, put him in exotics, or include him on a pick 3,4, or 6 ticket,
then I am begging you to do so.
I want your freaking money.


Repent

[Pedigree Ann]

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

It's a big mistake to run him within 6 weeks of the Breeder's Cup.This horse will do best with atleast 6 weeks rest before a huge race like this.Do you remember when he almost got beat at Hollywood? That's the way he will look if he doesn't have enough time between races.

Did you even watch the Hollywood Gold Cup? Lava Dude stumbled out of the gate and spotted the field several lengths, had to run from behind horses, something he doesn't like to do. Despite all that, he still managed to get up and win, conceding chunks of weight to the others.

When he was a 'cheap' horse, Lava Man had no problem with running decent races two or even one week apart (2 stakes races at Pomona in 2004 - won one, third in the other).

Here's Doug prepping Lava Man for the Goodwood

[Danzig]

i wasn't so worried about the tin man in the hirsch, i read the other day that english channel was headed there as well.

lava man is a better horse this year than last, his record this year speaks for itself.
there will be a full field (apparently) in the classic, so all but one of those good horses will lose--and 11 will miss the board. WOW i have tons of respect for those who go out on a limb to pick 1 of the 13 losers, rather than the one winner.

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants

Here's Doug prepping Lava Man for the Goodwood

Thats the Big Buckin Chicken!

The Tin Man is a better horse NOW. He has aged like a fine wine. Still tough against the Euros, but he will again dictate some pace and be a player in determining the outcome.